Question for the good cappers

[Bobby O'Shea]

How do you use injuries when it comes to betting the NFL, do you wait to the last minute?

Thanks,

Bobby O

[nflman]

I dont know if you would consider me a good capper but it depends on the game line and the importance of the position of the player that is injured. Usually, positions like offensive linemen don't prompt the oddsmakers to make a substantial adjustment and that's where you find your best bets.

[UMDBookingRook]

O-line and D-line is what I really look at. If a team can control the trenches, they can dictate the game the majority of the time.

[greek]

carolina

[nflman]

Originally Posted by greek

carolina

That answer your question, Bobby?

[BangTheBook]

Injuries can be deceiving. Remember when Trent Green went down and Unknown Kurt Warner led the best show on turf

[Bobby O'Shea]

Injuries are tough to read for me, and its mostly the game time calls. If your not watching a pre-game before hand how is the best way to find out who is playing when they are a game time decison? Thanks for the answers guys, most of them, lol

Bobby O

[nflman]

Try looking at the injury report at Covers.com, you will see a list of players that are currently on injured reserve. Players don't stay on the out list for very long before they are moved to the injured reserve list by the team, because they are then replaced by a free agent or an athlete from the practice squad. If you don't use the injury report at Covers, Don Best or other sites that include the IR list, you can become pretty confused about how many starting players are actually out.

Secondly, injuries do not always have a negative effect because many guys play with injuries and it limits their abilities so much that when they finally are forced to sit out, their back up proves to be an improvement. So a lot of using injury reports in the process of handicapping actually relies on our judgement and how much we know about the players.

The most effective method of handicapping, for me, that most people overlook as hogwash are the league trends (or systems). I am not talking about team trends like the junk they print in the football annuals, but the league trends that no one is telling you about: Tennessee at New Orleans this last Monday night was a statistical lock despite all of the emotional angles that surrounded the Saints. There were four league trends applicable there:
1) Non divisional home teams favored by more than threewhen both teams are off a loss are 0-9 ATS
2) NFC teams as home favorites over AFC teams are 0-8-1 ATS

Then there were smaller indicators that were evident:
3) AFC South teams are 4-0 SU vs. the NFC South this year
4) In week 3 no home team that was 0-2 (W/L Record) covered the spread. 0-4 ATS!!!

Certainly, the #1 and #2 league trends shown here were the most indicative of the outcome, but the #3 and #4 league trends are what forced my hand to bet the game based on the #1 and #2 league trends because they are from a different source. #1 and #2 are league trends I pulled up using the large query matrix page at Killer Sports and the #3 and #4 league trends that come from my own attention to detail.

And, the fact that any head coach worth his salt would have been using the cover 2 defense against the Saints at this point. Jeff Fisher is definitely a good coach and therefore had to have had the Saints figured out.

Having all of that in front of me was good enough to bet Tennessee big.

[Bobby O'Shea]

W-O-W Great Info NFLman!!

That's the kind of answer I was looking for. The reason this question came up is because of the Carolina game. I read and hear that Carr may start but they are not 100% sure, so do you handicap differently for both QB's? Or just attack the game from a different angle. I look at it like starting pitchers in baseball, that's why its important.

Thanks again man and good luck this week,

Bobby O

[nflman]

That may not be the best game to bet on. I'll narrow them down by Sunday afternoon.