Week 3 Dogs

[Raji]

I wasn’t a month into this gig before a couple of weathered professional handicappers told me I was crazy – absolutely bananas – to bet the first month of the NFL season.



Back then, I was young, brash and barely a baby in the biz, still shocked that somebody was actually going to give me a paycheck to look at lines and write football stories, I shrugged off their advice and dove headfirst into my first pool of professional football pointspreads on the job.



Just pulled a Pete Rose with action on everything – underdogs, parlay cards, prop bets, I was all over it, thinking my “inside edge” interviewing pro cappers, oddsmakers and the like was going to help me bust the bank.



Sure enough, Monday morning came down and I wondered how I was going to make rent.



Fast forward four years to this season and I can’t help but think of somebody scouring their basement with a pawn shop list in hand, wading through parlay tickets, packing up old Playstation games.



Don’t let it happen to you; I’m telling you we’re still in the middle of a black hole in the NFL’s version of the twilight zone.



LaDainian Tomlinson, the surefire, can’t-miss, first overall pick of every fantasy football league in the land has just 68 rushing yards in two games. Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson have exactly zero touchdowns between them. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans are unbeaten. The sad-sack Cleveland Browns upset the Cincinnati Bengals in a 96-point shootout last week.



Just five underdogs managed to cover the spread in Week 1 before a full dozen dogs cashed in last week.



There’s no definitive explanation for all this madness, but my best guess tells me the league’s bogus preseason schedule plays a big hand in it.



Superstars like Tomlinson and Johnson, who bypass the exhibition games, are coming into the real games cold and timing means everything when the warp speed of Week 1 hits. That’s enough to skew the balance of NFL odds right there.



Meanwhile, upstart teams like the Texans and Cardinals spent all preseason getting used to new schemes, quarterbacks and coaches. They’re talented, but needed to give their main weapons some playing solid time to have everything in order for Week 1 and now they’re the talk of the town.



It’s not rocket science, but then again, neither is oddsmaking when it comes down to it.



The NFL is the most heavily-wagered sport in Las Vegas by a landslide and linemakers treat its lines accordingly – with a fine-toothed comb. If a pointspread is off a half point, sharp bettors can ding a sportsbook for millions of dollars, so the main goal of bookies is to get split action on either side of the line to avoid a big hit.



That makes the fact that the Buffalo Bills are 17-point underdogs at the New England Patriots this Sunday just crazy. It’s the fattest line I’ve ever seen this early in the season and it’s actually gone up from when it opened a shade over two touchdowns, meaning the books had to bump it up this high just to get even action on both clubs.



What’s even crazier is that I don’t want any kind of action on that game at all; it’s all just too weird for me this early on. New England could walk in a 45-point blowout or Buffalo could stroll in the back door to cover in garbage time.



Who knows? We’re not out of the black hole just yet.



Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens: Cardinals +9



Coach Ken Whisenhunt, take a bow. The dirty Denny Green days are finally dead.



The new Arizona Cardinals aren’t going to be bullied around anymore. They’re going to keep poster boy Matt Leinart’s jersey clean come hell or high water and smack you in the mouth at every opportunity. They’re going to run the ball all day despite boasting two of the game’s most electric wideouts.



Most importantly, they’re going to be pretty darn hard to play against this year.



Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: Lions +6



Everybody’s on Donovan McNabb’s case right now so he got his back up in some questionable quotes this week about the criticism of black quarterbacks.



He’s frustrated and I can see why after last week’s MNF home loss to the Redskins. McNabb’s only reliable receiver is running back Brian Westbrook and right now he’s banged up with a knee injury.



I’m not sold on the Lions, but Philly’s going to need some points to keep up with Detroit’s offense and I’m not sure where the Eagles are going to find it.



San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 49ers +9



San Francisco has something going on. Frank Gore is running like a man possessed and the club is talking about getting stud tight end Vernon Davis more involved this week too. I really like the look Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, but if Alex Smith can put some points up, the 49ers defense can keep them in this game.

Raji