San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/24/24
The 49ers and Packers will face off at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 24th at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Packers are favored at -2.5 and have a money line of -138. This week 12 matchup is being televised on FOX, with the 49ers at +116 on the money line and the over/under set at 48 points.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers +2.5
This game will be played at Lambeau Field at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 24th.
WHY BET THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:
- We have the 49ers winning this one by a score of 25 to 19
- Not only do we have the 49ers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 48 points
Will The 49ers Pick Up A Win On The Road?
After their week 11 loss to the Seahawks, the 49ers are now 5-5, putting them 4th in the NFC West. They have a +2.8 scoring margin and rank 7th in our power rankings, but our projections give them just a 26.8% chance of making the playoffs. San Francisco has been favored in all of their games this season, but they are just 4-6 against the spread and have failed to cover in two straight.
In week 10, the 49ers narrowly defeated the Buccaneers 23-20, but they couldn’t carry that momentum into week 11, losing 20-17 to the Seahawks. The O/U line for that game was 49 points, but the teams combined for just 37. The under has hit in two straight 49ers games.
Heading into week 12, the 49ers are 10th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 8th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 25 points per game, and are 2nd in total yards with 398.9 per game. San Francisco ranks 4th in passing yards (251.1 per game) despite being 19th in pass attempts. They are 7th in rushing yards, averaging 147.8 per game on 29.7 attempts. The 49ers are 4th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 45.4% success rate, but rank 20th in red zone conversion percentage.
Brock Purdy threw for 159 yards (21/28) with one touchdown and one interception in week 11 against the Seahawks. Jauan Jennings led the team with 10 catches for 91 yards, while Christian McCaffrey had 79 rushing yards on 19 carries. San Francisco scored 7 points in the 1st quarter, 3 in the 3rd, and 7 in the 4th.
In their 20-17 loss to the Seahawks, the 49ers’ defense allowed just 195 passing yards on 25 completions. They also came up with four sacks and one interception, making things difficult for Seattle’s passing game. On the ground, the Seahawks finished with 94 yards on 23 attempts.
Despite their strong effort in the passing game, the 49ers allowed Seattle to convert 46.2% of their third down attempts. The 49ers’ offense managed just 17 points in the loss, and the defense did not give up any touchdowns through the air.
Will The Packers Win At Home Over The 49ers?
Heading into week 12, the Packers hold a 7-3 record, putting them 5th in our NFL power rankings and giving them an 88.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, they are just 3rd in the NFC North, with a 1-2 division record. Green Bay bounced back from a week 9 loss to the Lions with a 20-19 win over the Bears in week 11, though they were unable to cover the 6-point spread. The O/U line was 41, with the teams combining for 39 points.
Green Bay has an average scoring margin of +3.7 points per game and is 4-6 against the spread this season. They have failed to cover in four straight games, including their week 8 win over the Jaguars and week 7 win over the Texans. Their O/U record is 4-5-1, with the under hitting in two consecutive games.
Heading into week 12, the Packers are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They are 8th in points per game, averaging 25, and 4th in the NFL in yards per game with 387.6. Despite ranking 21st in passing attempts, they are 8th in passing yards per game, averaging 237.7. On the ground, they are 6th in rushing attempts and 4th in rushing yards per game, with 149.9. Green Bay ranks 20th in 3rd-down conversions and 18th in red zone conversion percentage, though they are 5th in red zone attempts.
Jordan Love had a strong performance in week 11, posting a passer rating of 112 against the Bears, with 261 yards on 13/17 passing, including a touchdown and an interception. Christian Watson led the team with 4 catches for 150 yards. Josh Jacobs added 76 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Green Bay scored 7 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters, but struggled on 3rd down, converting just 1 of 5 attempts.
In their 20-19 win over the Bears, the Packers’ defense gave up 179 rushing yards on 34 attempts, including 66 yards on one run by Khalil Herbert. Despite this, they held Chicago to 212 passing yards and no touchdowns through the air. The Packers’ defense allowed the Bears to convert on 56.2% of their third down attempts.
Green Bay’s defense recorded three sacks in the game and had four more quarterback hits than the Bears. Overall, the Packers gave up 391 total yards, but the Bears were unable to capitalize on their yardage, scoring just 19 points.