Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Pick & Prediction 10/3/24
The over/under line is set at 43.5 points for the week five matchup between the Buccaneers and Falcons. The Falcons are the favorite with a money line of -124, and the game is being televised on AMZN. The Falcons are -1.5 point favorites over the Buccaneers, and this NFC South matchup is set for 8:15 ET on Thursday, October 3rd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1.5
This game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 8:15 ET on Thursday, October 3rd.
WHY BET THE ATLANTA FALCONS:
- We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 22 to 18
- Not only do we have the Falcons winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points
Will The Buccaneers Pick Up A Win On The Road?
After falling behind 24-0 in the 2nd quarter, the Buccaneers rallied to beat the Eagles 33-16, improving their record to 3-1. Tampa Bay went into the game as +1 point underdogs, and their 17-point victory was a big one. The combined 49 points easily surpassed the O/U line of 42 points.
The Buccaneers got on the board with a touchdown from Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans in the 1st quarter. Despite the early deficit, Tampa Bay scored 24 unanswered points, capped off by a 59-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley in the 3rd quarter. The Eagles didn’t score after the 1st quarter until late in the 3rd when Jalen Hurts found the endzone on the ground.
The Buccaneers’ offense was led by Baker Mayfield in their 33-16 win over the Eagles, as he threw for 347 yards and completed 63% of his passes. Tampa Bay’s offense gained 29 first downs and 334 yards passing, with Mayfield throwing two touchdowns and finishing with a passer rating of 100. Mike Evans was a key target, finishing with 94 yards receiving and one touchdown.
On the ground, Bucky Irving led the team with 49 rushing yards on 10 attempts, including one touchdown and a long run of 15 yards. The Buccaneers rushed for 111 yards as a team. Mayfield was sacked twice and finished with a 63.8% completion percentage, while the team converted on 46.2% of their third down attempts.
In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 114 passing yards to the Eagles. Tampa Bay recorded six sacks and held Philadelphia to 46.2% on third down. Despite giving up 113 rushing yards on just 20 attempts, the Buccaneers came out on top with a 33-16 win.
Tampa Bay’s defense was tough upfront, winning the QB hit differential and the tackles for loss differential. The Eagles managed just one touchdown against the Buccaneers’ defense, while completing 60% of their passes.
Will The Falcons Win At Home Over The Buccaneers?
Despite being favored by -2.5, the Falcons pulled out a 26-24 win over the Saints at home to move to 2-2 on the season. The Falcons didn’t cover the spread, but they did pull out a 26-24 win. The game was tied 7-7 after the 1st quarter, and the Falcons took a 17-14 lead into halftime. Atlanta extended their lead to 20-14 in the 3rd quarter with a field goal, but the Saints closed the gap to 20-17 heading into the 4th quarter.
Alvin Kamara’s 1-yard touchdown run put the Saints up 24-23 with just 29 seconds left in the 4th. However, Atlanta was able to pull out the win with a 58-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo with 7 seconds left. Koo had a great game, also hitting from 53 and 42 yards earlier in the game. Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson connected on a 26-yard touchdown in the 2nd quarter for the Falcons.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins led the Falcons’ passing attack with 238 yards on 21 completions in their 26-24 win over the Saints. Atlanta’s offense managed just 14 first downs and 227 passing yards on 35 attempts. The Falcons struggled to get much going on the ground, with only 88 yards rushing on 15 attempts.
Drake London was the leading receiver for Atlanta with 64 yards on six catches. Tyler Allgeier, who ran for 60 yards and averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, was the leading rusher with 60 yards, including a 15-yard run.
Atlanta’s defense picked off one pass in their 26-24 win over the Saints, holding New Orleans to 77.8% completions. The Falcons allowed 366 yards, with 235 coming through the air. They defended 28 completions and limited the Saints to 4.0 yards per attempt on the ground.
On third down, the Falcons allowed the Saints to convert 53.8% of their chances. Atlanta’s defense managed just one sack in the game, but they did win the tackles for loss battle by a margin of +2.