Nevada Wolf Pack vs Troy Trojans Betting Pick & Prediction 8/31/24
ESPN+ will be covering the season opener between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Troy Trojans, set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy. The Trojans are the heavy favorite with a -14.5 point spread, and the over/under line is currently at 46.5 points.
NEVADA WOLF PACK VS TROY TROJANS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Troy Trojans -14.5
This game will be played at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) at 7:00 ET on Saturday, August 31st.
WHY BET THE TROY TROJANS:
- We have the Troy Trojans winning this one by a score of 31 to 16
- Not only do we have the Troy Trojans winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -14.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 46.5 points
Will The Nevada Wolf Pack Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Heading into the season, Nevada is 19500 to win the Mountain West, which is 11th out of 12 teams. The odds for the Wolf Pack to make it to the Mountain West title game are +6000, with an implied probability of 2%. Our power rankings place Nevada 120th in the nation, with just a 23.7% chance of being bowl-eligible.
Last season, Nevada finished with a 2-10 record, including going 1-5 both at home and on the road. They were favored in just two games, going 0-2 as the favorite and 2-8 as the underdog. This season, they are looking to be more competitive in the Mountain West.
Last season, Nevada’s passing game ranked 111th in the country, averaging just 175.2 yards per game. The Wolf Pack were also 97th in rushing yards per game, with an average of 127.3 yards per contest. Overall, they ranked 102nd in the nation in scoring, putting up 17.3 points per game. The team’s struggles on third down were a major issue, as they converted just 29.9% of their third down opportunities, which ranked 119th nationally.
Heading into this season, Nevada’s quarterback situation is led by Brendon Lewis, who threw for 1,313 yards and two touchdowns last year. The Wolf Pack also brought in Chubba Purdy from Nebraska to bolster the position. In the backfield, Sean Dollars returns after rushing for 527 yards and six touchdowns last season, and the team also added Pat Garwo III from Boston College. The Wolf Pack will look for improved production from their receiving corps, as their top returning receiver, Nate Burleson II, had 18 yards receiving last season.
Nevada’s defense had a tough time stopping the run last season, allowing 189.2 rushing yards per game, which ranked 150th in the nation. Overall, they gave up 33.4 points per game, placing them 81st in the country. Their pass defense was slightly better, ranking 149th in passing yards allowed. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 103.7 while completing 65.1% of their passes against the Wolf Pack.
Are The Troy Trojans Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Heading into this season, the Troy Trojans are ranked 75th in our pre-season power rankings, with an 80.9% chance of being bowl-eligible. Last season, Troy finished with an 11-3 overall record, going 9-3 as the favorite and 2-0 as the underdog. They were strong at home, finishing 6-1, and went 5-2 on the road.
Currently, we are giving the Trojans a 15.1% chance of winning the Sun Belt Conference. In the futures market, they are listed at +1460 to win the conference, which gives them a 6% implied probability, ranking them 7th out of the 7 teams in the Sun Belt.
Goose Crowder is the top returning quarterback for the Troy Trojans, having thrown for 94 yards and one touchdown last season. Troy also brought in Matthew Caldwell from Gardner-Webb, who threw for 261 yards and a touchdown. The Trojans ranked 28th in the nation in scoring last season, averaging 29.6 points per game. Their passing game was a key factor, with an average of 265.2 passing yards per game, placing them 18th in the country. Troy also ranked 16th in passing yards per attempt and per completion.
In the running game, Damien Taylor returns after rushing for 346 yards last season. Troy also added Gerald Green from East Carolina, who rushed for 101 yards. Last season, the Trojans averaged 154.4 rushing yards per game, placing them 56th nationally.
Troy’s defense was strong last season, allowing just 17.1 points per game, which ranked 12th in the country. They were particularly tough against the run, giving up only 107.1 rushing yards per game, the 21st best mark in college football. In the passing game, the Trojans allowed 201.5 yards per game through the air, placing them 50th nationally. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 79.2 and averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt against Troy.