Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction 8/17/24
From Citi Field in New York, we have the Marlins and Mets facing off in an NL East matchup. First pitch is set for 4:10 PM ET, and SNY is carrying this one on TV. The money line odds have the Mets at -188 compared to the Marlins at +158. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Miami will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 45-77 overall, while the Mets are 63-59 and are 3rd in the NL East. Luis Severino will be starting for the Mets, while the Marlins are sending Max Meyer to the mound.
MIAMI MARLINS VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs
This game will be played at Citi Field at 4:10 ET on Saturday, August 17th.
HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS METS:
- We have the Mets winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
New York cruised to a 7-3 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 4th inning, scoring six of their seven runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -264 on the money line.
Sean Manaea got the win for the Mets, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs. Roddery Muñoz only went 3 1/3 innings for the Marlins, taking the loss and giving up four earned runs.
Jake Burger hit the game’s only home run while going 1/4 with three RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Brandon Nimmo did a bit of everything for the Mets, going 2/5 with a home run and three runs scored.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 45-77, putting them 27 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are just 12-25 in divisional games. The Marlins have dropped two straight games, and they are 2-8 over their last 10 games overall.
At home, the Marlins are 24-39 compared to 21-38 on the road. Miami has dropped two straight games as the underdog, and they are 41-64 as the underdog overall this year. So far, they have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-13.
When betting the Marlins on the run line this season, it’s been a coin flip. They are 57-65 vs. the run line, but they have been a better bet on the road, going 29-30. Miami has failed to cover the run line in two straight road games and is just 2-15 vs. the run line when favored this season.
When the Miami Marlins are on the road, the over has hit in 68 of their 119 games. The over/under line for their games has been set at 8.5 runs in 41 of those games, and the over has hit in 23 of them. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 68-51 overall.
Right-hander Max Meyer is starting for the Marlins today as he faces the Mets on the road. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA. Meyer’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and opponents are batting .262 off him this year. In his 36 1/3 innings of work, Meyer has allowed a total of seven home runs. Looking back at his last outing, Meyer picked up the win, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had lost two straight starts.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the MLB. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have the worst team on-base percentage in the league. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, including Jake Burger, who is batting .450 with four homers over his last five games.
Jake Burger is not only swinging the bat well of late, but he is also having a strong season overall, as his 24 homers is 13th in the league and leads the Marlins. His 55 RBIs are also the best mark on the team. Jesús Sánchez is 2nd on the team with 15 homers, but he is batting just .242 for the season.
Mets Records & Stats
The Mets are 63-59 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL East. Currently, they trail the Phillies by nine games for the division lead. This season, they have gone 21-16 in divisional games. The Mets have the chance to pick up a game on the Braves, who are 2nd in the division, as they trail Atlanta by one game.
At home, the Mets are 32-31 this year, and they are 31-28 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 40-33, and they are 25-20 as the favorite at home. New York’s overall series record is 18-16-7, and they have dropped two straight series.
When the Mets are the favorite, they are 30-43 against the run line. When they are the underdog, they are 28-21. Their average run differential is +0.2 per game, and they are 58-64 against the run line overall.
The New York Mets have been on a hot streak, with the over hitting in five straight games. Their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 63-55. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 23 of their 36 games (63.9%). Overall, 31 of their games have had higher lines than 8.5 runs (25.4%).
New York is hoping that Luis Severino can turn things around today, as he has taken the loss in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work vs. the Mariners. Looking back over his last three starts, he has given up a total of 14 earned runs. Severino’s record for the season is 7-6, and his ERA is 4.17. Out of his 23 starts, he has nine quality starts and is averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 17 homers and is averaging 3.1 walks per nine innings.
Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 15/40 in his last nine games, including one home run and six RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .263 with 23 homers and 70 RBIs, which is the top mark on the team. Pete Alonso has also been a solid power threat for the Mets, as his 26 homers is the best on the team and 11th in the league. He comes into the game with a season-long batting average of .242.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and have the league’s 10th best team batting average.