San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 8/11/24
First pitch for Sunday’s matchup between the Padres and Marlins is set for 1:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Padres are 66-52 and they will be looking to extend their seven-game winning streak with Dylan Cease on the mound. Miami is 43-75 and they have lost three straight. Max Meyer is starting for the Marlins.
San Diego is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -210 compared to the Marlins at +176. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and this game will be televised on Bally Sports San Diego and Bally Sports Florida.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 1:40 ET on Sunday, August 11th.
HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS MARLINS:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
San Diego picked up a 9-8 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 5th inning, scoring six of their nine runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their final two runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -193 on the money line.
Matt Waldron got the start for the Padres, going just 4 1/3 innings while giving up five runs and striking out five. Robert Suarez got the win out of the bullpen, and Tanner Scott got the save. John McMillon took the loss for Miami out of the bullpen.
Jackson Merrill and David Peralta each homered for the Padres, while Jake Burger hit a home run for the Marlins. Merrill, Peralta, Luis Arraez, and Ha-Seong Kim each had two RBIs for San Diego’s offense.
Padres Records & Stats
San Diego is on a seven-game winning streak, and they are 66-52 overall this season. The Padres are 2.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead, and they are 19-18 in divisional matchups this year. San Diego has won five straight games on the road and are 36-23 overall as the road team.
The Padres have been the favorite in 70 of their games, going 40-30 in those matchups. As the underdog, San Diego is 26-22 this season. They have been really good in series lately, winning six straight series overall and six straight series on the road.
San Diego is 40-19 against the run line on the road this season, but just 22-37 at home. The Padres have an average run margin of +1.3 on the road compared to -0.2 at home. They are 33-15 against the run line as the underdog, but just 29-41 as the favorite.
San Diego’s games have averaged 9.0 runs per contest this season, and their over/under record is 63-54. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 18 times and under 20 times. Overall, 59.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s 7.5-run total.
Dylan Cease has been pitching well for the Padres, as he has made 24 starts and has a record of 11-8. Cease’s ERA is 3.40, and he has a WHIP of .99. One of Cease’s complete games came on the road, and he has a shutout to his name as well. Cease has turned in 13 quality starts this year and is coming off a short outing in which he went just one inning, giving up two hits and a walk. He didn’t give up a run in that outing. Before that, Cease had won three straight starts.
Over the past 10 games, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have been swinging the bat well for the Padres. Machado has gone 15/43 over that stretch with four homers and 12 RBIs, while Merrill has five homers and 12 RBIs while batting .389. Machado is 2nd on the team with 68 RBIs and has 18 homers this season. Jurickson Profar has been the team’s top power threat, as his 19 homers are the most on the team and 15th in the league.
As a team, the Padres are the league’s top-hitting team, batting .265. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are 1st in home runs. Overall, they are 11th in runs per game at 4.8. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is 43-75 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 26.5 games in the division. The Marlins have dropped three straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last 10 games. In the NL East, they are 11-23 when playing against other teams in the division.
At home, the Marlins are 23-39 this year, and they are 20-36 on the road. So far, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-13. As the underdog, Miami is 39-62 this year. The Marlins have dropped three straight games as the underdog.
When betting the Marlins on the run line, it’s been a good idea to take them as the underdog, as they are 53-48 overall. They have been a poor bet as the favorite, going just 2-15. Their average run margin is -1.4 runs per game, and they have been outscored by 1.6 runs per game at home.
When the Miami Marlins play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Marlins have a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 65-50 on the season. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 18-6. Overall, 72.9% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Right-hander Max Meyer gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Padres at home. Meyer has made six starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA. Looking back at his last outing, Meyer took the loss after giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. He also gave up two homers in that outing. Before that, he had pitched well, giving up a total of three earned runs in his previous three outings. Meyer’s WHIP for the season is 1.30, and opponents are batting .259 off him this year.
While the Marlins are near the bottom of the league in terms of runs scored, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late. Jake Burger has gone deep six times in his last 10 games, going 13/40 during that stretch with nine RBIs. For the season, he is batting .245 and is the team’s leader in RBIs. Josh Bell is on a seven-game hitting streak, and Bryan De La Cruz has a hit in five straight games.
Overall, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game and are even worse in terms of drawing walks. As a team, they are batting .237 and have the league’s 22nd ranked on-base percentage. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in terms of home runs and slugging percentage.