San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 8/9/24
San Diego is the favorite on the money line today, with their odds sitting at -140 compared to the Marlins at +119. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and this NL matchup can be seen on BSFL.
First pitch from loanDepot Park in Miami is set for 7:10 PM ET. Martín Pérez is starting for the Padres, and he is facing off against Edward Cabrera. San Diego is 64-52, while the Marlins are 43-73 and are 5th in the NL East.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -140
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, August 9th.
HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS MARLINS:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Padres Records & Stats
The Padres’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Pirates, closing out their series with a 7-6 win. After allowing two runs to the Pirates in the bottom of the first, the Padres responded with two runs of their own. San Diego added another two runs in the 2nd inning and went on to pick up the 7-6 win. Leading up to the game, the Padres were the slight favorite at -113 on the money line.
Randy Vasquez got the start for the Padres, going 5 2/3 innings, and picked up the win. He did run into some trouble in the 4th inning, giving up three runs, but the Padres offense bailed him out, scoring another two runs in the top of the 4th.
San Diego is 64-52 overall this season, putting them 2nd in the NL West, 2.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have won five straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Pirates with three straight wins. So far, they are 19-18 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Padres are just above .500 at 30-29 this year. They have been a bit better on the road, coming in with a record of 34-23. As the road favorite, the Padres are 14-9 this year, and they have an overall series record of 23-13-3, including winning six straight series.
San Diego has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 61-55 overall, including a 39-18 mark on the road. The Padres have an average run margin of +0.5 runs per game this season, and they have been especially good against the run line as the underdog, going 33-15. They have also been a strong play on the run line on the road, going 39-18. In their wins this season, the Padres have an average run margin of +3.8 runs per game, while in their losses, that number drops to -3.5 runs per game.
San Diego’s road games have been trending toward the over this season, with a combined run average of 9.0. Their over/under record is 62-53, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they are 15-12. In 18.1% of their games, the line has been set at 8.5 runs, and they have gone over that line in their last two games.
Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Marlins on the road. So far this season, he has made 17 starts and has a record of 2-5 with an ERA of 4.96. Perez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.57, and opponents are batting .295 off the left-hander this year. In his 17 appearances, Perez has turned in six quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Perez finished with a no-decision after going six innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. He pitched well in that outing, but before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
San Diego comes into the game as the league’s top hitting team, with a batting average of .265. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .325 is 7th in the majors. The Padres have been very tough to strike out this season, as they lead the league with just six strikeouts per game.
Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado have been the Padres’ top power threats this season, with Profar leading the team with 19 homers and Machado right behind him with 18. Profar also comes into the game with a team-best 71 RBIs. Over his last six games, Machado is 8/24 with two homers. Jackson Merrill has also been swinging a hot bat for the Padres, going 7/20 with two homers in his last six games.
Marlins Records & Stats
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Reds with a 10-4 loss. Miami was the +154 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with two runs in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Reds scored twice in the top of the first.
Miami started Kyle Tyler, and he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on five hits. The Marlins also issued three walks and hit a batter. Derek Hill and Xavier Edwards each had two hits and scored one run apiece. Jhonny Pereda drove in the Marlins’s other two runs.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 26.5 games for the division lead. Overall, the Marlins are 43-73, and they have gone just 11-23 against other teams in the NL East. This year, they are 23-37 at home compared to 20-36 on the road.
As the underdog, the Marlins are 39-60 this season, but they have struggled as the favorite, going just 4-13. Miami’s overall series record is 10-22-5, and they are coming off losing their series vs. the Reds, 3-1.
The Marlins have been a solid run line bet this season, going 54-62 overall. They have been a much better bet on the road, where they are 28-28 against the run line. Miami has been an underdog in most of their games, and they have a 52-47 run line record in those contests. Their average run differential on the season is -1.4 runs per game.
The Miami Marlins have been a solid over team this season, with a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game. They have an over/under record of 64-49, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over in 20 of 37 games. Their current over streak is at 4 games.
Right-hander Edward Cabrera gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Padres at home. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA. Cabrera’s WHIP for the season is 1.49. In his 11 starts, he has turned in just one quality start and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that appearance against the Braves, he went five innings, giving up three hits, and issuing two walks. Cabrera has a strikeout rate of 11.92 per nine innings.
Over the past 10 games, Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat for the Marlins, going 12/41 with six homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .240 with a team-high 49 RBIs and 19 homers, which is 14th in the MLB. Jesús Sánchez is 2nd on the team with 13 homers but has a batting average of just .235.
As a team, the Marlins are the worst offensive team in the league, averaging just 3.6 runs per game. This number is even worse on the road, where they are averaging only 3.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .238 and have the league’s worst on-base percentage. Miami’s team isolated power of .125 is also the worst in the MLB.