New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 7/19/24
From loanDepot Park in Miami, we have the Mets and Marlins facing off in an NL East matchup. The Mets are 49-46 this season, while the Marlins are 33-63. Edward Cabrera is starting for the Marlins, and the Mets are starting Sean Manaea. New York is 3rd in the NL East, while the Marlins are 5th.
The money line odds have the Mets at -134, while the Marlins are the slight home underdogs at +114. Friday’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and BSFL will be televising this one.
NEW YORK METS VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline -134
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, July 19th.
HOW TO BET THE METS VS MARLINS:
- We have the Mets winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Mets Records & Stats
Pete Alonso and the Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rockies with an 8-5 loss. New York was the heavy favorite at -202 going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Rockies scored six times in the first.
Jose Quintana had a rough outing, giving up five earned runs on six hits and issuing three walks. The Mets also wasted a big game from Pete Alonso, who homered in the first inning but went just 1/5.
The Mets are 49-46 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL East, 12.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York’s overall record is 16-12 against other teams in the NL East. They are playing on the road today vs. the Marlins and are an even 26-26 at home this year.
New York has won two straight series, taking two of three games from the Rockies in their most recent series. They have gone 7-3 across their last 10 games overall. So far, the Mets have been good as the favorite, going 30-24 and 19-22 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 15-12-5 this year.
When betting the Mets on the run line, it’s been a better proposition to take them on the road, where they’ve gone 24-19 against the run line. The Mets have been a slight favorite in most of their games, and they’ve gone just 21-33 against the run line in those games. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 24-17 against the run line.
The New York Mets are on the road against the Miami Marlins today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Mets have a combined run average of 9.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 51-41. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 16-10. Overall, 22 of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 23.2% of their games. The over has hit in their last three games.
Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 18 starts this year and has a record of 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs on nine hits. Looking back further, he has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Manaea has a total of six quality starts this year and is averaging 8.97 strikeouts per nine innings.
Coming into the game, the Mets are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, the Mets are 5th in home runs and have the league’s 7th best team batting average. Over their last eight games, Brandon Nimmo is hitting just .235, but he does have three homers in that stretch.
Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor have been the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Alonso and Lindor both having gone deep at least 19 times. Nimmo is also 7th in the league with 63 RBIs. Lindor and Jeff McNeil are both on three-game hitting streaks, while Francisco Alvarez has a six-game streak going.
Marlins Records & Stats
The Marlins pulled off a big 3-2 upset over the Reds to close out their series. Miami was the +156 underdog going into this matchup. Offensively, the Marlins scored their three runs on nine hits and didnjson’t hit a home run.
Trevor Rogers got the start for the Marlins, going 5 2/3 innings, and picked up the win. He gave up just two runs on two hits and issued three walks. Xavier Edwards was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with a run scored and a stolen base. The Marlins also had three other players with two hits.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 29 games for the division lead. Overall, they are 33-63 and have gone just 7-19 in divisional matchups. The Marlins lost two of three games to the Reds in their most recent series.
At home, the Marlins are 18-31 compared to a 15-32 mark on the road. So far, they have won two straight games at home. Miami has struggled as the favorite this year, going 4-13, and they are 29-50 as the underdog. This season, the Marlins are 15-36 in night games, and their overall record is just 15-36.
Despite a run line record of 42-54, the Marlins have been a solid bet lately, covering the run line in two straight games. Overall, they have been a better bet on the road, going 23-24 against the run line, compared to 19-30 at home. They have been a profitable bet as the underdog, going 40-39 against the run line in those games.
The Miami Marlins are hosting the New York Mets with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The Marlins have an over/under record of 51-43 on the season, and their games have an average combined run total of 8.6 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 16-15. This season, 16 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs, accounting for 16.7% of their games.
Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Mets, and he has made seven starts this year. Cabrera’s record is 1-3, and his ERA is 8.26. Looking at his overall numbers, Cabrera has a WHIP of 1.59 and opponents are batting .246 this year. The right-hander has made one quality start this year and is coming off a rough outing vs. the Reds, where he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Cabrera has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four outings.
Heading into today’s game, the Marlins offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per game. Miami’s offense has struggled to hit for power this season, as they are 22nd in home runs and have the worst team ISO in the league. As a team, they are batting .234, which is 16th in the league.
Bryan De La Cruz is Miami’s top power hitter this season, as his 16 home runs is 13th best in the league. He also leads the team with 44 RBIs. De La Cruz is batting just .242 for the season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is batting .249 and is 2nd on the team with 12 homers.