Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Prediction 6/27/24
The forecast for Thursday’s Reds vs. Cardinals matchup calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 7:45 PM ET. BSMW is carrying the game on TV.
The Cardinals are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -133 compared to the Reds at +112. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and Cincinnati will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 37-43 and 4th in the NL Central. St. Louis is 2nd in the division with an overall record of 41-38.
CINCINNATI REDS VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline +112
This game will be played at Busch Stadium at 7:45 ET on Thursday, June 27th.
HOW TO BET THE REDS VS CARDINALS:
- We have the Reds winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Reds Records & Stats
Cincinnati is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 6-1 loss to the Pirates, Jonathan India went 2/4 with a run scored, and Graham Ashcraft pitched well out of the bullpen, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up just one run while striking out three. The Reds were also the -137 favorite at home going into the game.
Things really turned against the Reds in the 4th inning, as the Pirates scored four runs in the inning. Cincinnati’s offense scored their only run in the 3rd and left the bases loaded. The Reds also wasted a good start from Graham Ashcraft, who got the loss out of the bullpen, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up just one run.
Cincinnati is 4th in the NL Central with a record of 37-43, putting them 10.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds lost the final two games of their series vs. the Pirates and are 3-7 across their last 10 games.
So far, the Reds have gone 10-12 in divisional games. Today, they are on the road where they are 17-20 this season compared to 20-23 at home. As the favorite, the Reds are 20-16 and 17-27 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 8-16-2, and they have dropped four straight series.
While the Reds have a run line record of 42-38 overall, they have been much better on the road, going 24-13 against the run line. Their average run margin is +0.1 runs per game, but they have been outscored by 0.3 runs per game at home. They have been a profitable run line bet as an underdog, going 26-18 against the run line in those games.
The Cincinnati Reds have played to an over/under record of 34-43 this season, with the average line being set at 9 runs per game. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Reds have gone 6-6. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.4 runs per game. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is right around the average line for their games this season.
Left-hander Andrew Abbott gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Abbott has a WHIP of 1.18 and has issued just 2.76 walks per nine innings compared to 7.44 strikeouts. Abbott is coming off a start in which he gave up just two earned runs and got the win. In that outing, he pitched 5 2/3 innings. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Abbott has allowed a total of 15 homers this season.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/37 (.351) over his last nine games, including two homers. For the season, he is batting .249 with a team-high 14 homers. De La Cruz’s 35 RBIs are 3rd on the team. Jeimer Candelario is also tied for the team lead with 14 homers but has struggled of late, hitting just .194 over his last eight games.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. Their team batting average of .228 is 20th in the MLB, and they are also below average in terms of on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. The Reds have two players among the league leaders in RBIs, with Spencer Steer’s 49 RBIs being 11th in the MLB and Elly De La Cruz’s 35 RBIs coming in as the 11th best mark in the league.
Cardinals Records & Stats
The Cardinals’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Braves, closing out their series with a 4-1 win. After allowing one run to the Braves in the top of the first, the Cardinals responded with two runs of their own. St. Louis went on to add another two runs in the 3rd inning.
Matthew Liberatore put together a good start for the Cardinals, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out eight Braves batters. Alec Burleson was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with two doubles, two RBIs, and a run scored. The Cardinals also had three other players with a single hit.
St. Louis is 41-38 overall and six games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cardinals are 9-9 in divisional games and have won two straight games as the favorite. So far, they have been the favorite at home 14-11 and 20-17 overall as the favorite.
The Cardinals have been a good home team this year, going 22-16 compared to 19-22 on the road. St. Louis’ series record is 14-11-1 this year, and they have won two straight series. Their most recent series win came against the Braves, taking the series 2-1.
When betting the run line with the Cardinals, it’s been a good idea to take them as the underdog, as they are 26-16 against the run line in those games. Their overall run line record is 41-38, but they have been better at home, going 23-15. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.4, while it’s -3.4 in losing games.
The St. Louis Cardinals have an over/under record of 34-42 this season, with the average combined run total in their games sitting at 8.4. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5, their record is 15-10. Overall, 21.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5, while 46.8% have been set below that mark.
St. Louis is sending right-hander Miles Mikolas to the mound today vs. the Reds. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with a 4.68 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Mikolas has a WHIP of 1.16 and has turned in nine quality starts. Mikolas has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 4.90. At home, his record is 1-2, and he has an ERA of 5.45. In his last outing, Mikolas gave up four earned runs in six innings of work, but he got the win. Before that, he had not allowed a homer in three straight outings.
St. Louis has a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, as Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson have both gone 11/22 in their last six games, with each player also having two home runs in that stretch. Burleson is 2nd on the team with 12 homers this season and is batting .289 overall. Nolan Gorman has gone deep 16 times this season, which is the best mark on the team, but he is batting just .191 for the year.
Paul Goldschmidt is currently on a nine-game hitting streak for the Cardinals. As a team, the Cardinals are 25th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4 runs per game. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage.