Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 6/23/24
Cincinnati comes into this interleague matchup vs. the Red Sox with a record of 36-40, while the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East with an overall record of 41-36. Today’s money line odds have the Reds favored at -164, while the Red Sox are sitting at +139. The over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs, and the forecasted temperature in Cincinnati calls for light rain and temperatures in the mid-70s.
First pitch from Great American Park is set for 1:40 PM ET, and BSOH will be televising this one. Sunday’s starting pitching matchup features Zack Kelly for the Red Sox and Nick Lodolo for the Reds.
BOSTON RED SOX VS CINCINNATI REDS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +139
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 1:40 ET on Sunday, June 23rd.
HOW TO BET THE RED SOX VS REDS:
- We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Red Sox to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Boston picked up a 4-3 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox had a two-run lead going into the 8th inning, and the Reds could only muster one run in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were favored at -117 on the money line.
Nick Pivetta got the start for the Red Sox, going just 4 1/3 innings while giving up three runs and striking out five. Zack Kelly got the win out of the bullpen, and Kenley Jansen got the save. Frankie Montas went six innings for the Reds, giving up two earned runs on five hits.
At the plate, the Red Sox were led by Dominic Smith and Jarren Duran, who each had two hits and an RBI. Smith’s two-out home run in the 6th inning proved to be the game-winning run. For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz went 3/5 with a homer.
Red Sox Records & Stats
Boston is 41-36 overall and trails the Yankees by 10 games in the AL East. The Red Sox are 3rd in the division and have gone 10-9 in divisional games this year. The Red Sox have won three straight series and have an overall series record of 11-9-4 this year.
At home, the Red Sox are 18-20 this year, and they have gone 23-16 on the road. Boston has won four straight games as the underdog, and they are 20-21 as the underdog overall. As the favorite, the Red Sox are 21-15 this year.
The Red Sox have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 22-17. They have a run line record of 36-41 overall, with an average run margin of 0.6 runs per game. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 24-17 on the run line, compared to 12-24 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.4 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.7 runs per game.
The Boston Red Sox are on the road today against the Cincinnati Reds. The over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is 8.7 runs per game. Boston has an over/under record of 34-38 for the season, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, the Red Sox have gone 2-6 on the over/under. Only 3.9% of their games this season have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs, and their games have gone under that line 85.7% of the time. The under has hit in each of their last two games.
Zack Kelly will be looking to build on his last outing, where he picked up the win out of the bullpen. In that appearance vs. the Reds, he went one-third of an inning and didn’t give up a run. Looking back over his last three outings, Kelly has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has made 19 appearances this season and just one start. Kelly’s ERA for the season is an impressive 1.75, along with a record of 2-1. The right-hander has a WHIP of .94 and batting average allowed of .117.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .253, which is the 6th best mark in the league. Boston is also one of the best power-hitting teams in the league, as they are 6th in isolated power and 11th in home runs.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been the top power hitters for the Red Sox this season, with Devers hitting 14 homers and O’Neill at 15. Devers is also 2nd on the team with 39 RBIs, while O’Neill is 5th with 26. O’Neill has gone deep three times in his past seven games, going 7/27 (.259) over that stretch. Jarren Duran and Connor Wong are both on 12 game hitting streaks.
Reds Records & Stats
Cincinnati is 36-40 overall, putting them 5th in the NL Central. They trail the Brewers by 7.5 games for the division lead. So far, they are 9-10 in divisional matchups. The Reds are looking to pick up a win today, having gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Reds are 19-20 this season compared to 17-20 on the road. Cincinnati has dropped two straight series and are 8-14-2 in series this year. As the favorite, the Reds are 19-13 and 17-27 as the underdog.
When the Reds win, they tend to do so by a comfortable margin, as their average run differential in victories is +3.5. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of -2.8 runs. Their overall run line record is 41-35, and they have been a better bet on the road (24-13) than at home (17-22).
The Cincinnati Reds are hosting the Boston Red Sox today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The Reds have an average combined run average of 8.2 runs per game this season and have an over/under record of 31-42. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, they have gone over 11 times and under 7 times. Overall, 69.7% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 9.5-run mark, and their games have gone under the total in each of their last seven contests.
Cincinnati is sending left-hander Nick Lodolo to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 8-2 with a 2.75 ERA. Lodolo has been pitching well recently, as he has won his last three starts. In his most recent outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and four hits. Looking back over his last three starts, Lodolo has given up a total of three earned runs. Opponents are batting .205 off Lodolo this year, and his WHIP is 1.01. So far, he has made six quality starts and is averaging 9.64 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Reds offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Reds are batting just .226, and their team on-base percentage of .305 is also below the league average. One area where they have been solid is in terms of home runs, as they are 14th in the league and have a collective isolated power figure of .148.
Jeimer Candelario has been hot of late for the Reds, hitting five home runs in his last 10 games while batting .378. For the season, he is batting .255 with a team-high 14 homers. Spencer Steer has also been a good power threat, as he has nine homers and is batting .234.