Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction 9/23/24
At 6:40 PM ET, the Cubs and Phillies face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, where the Phillies are 92-64 overall. The Cubs are 80-76, putting them in 2nd place in the NL Central.
Monday’s money line odds have the Phillies at -177, while the Cubs are the +149 underdog. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies, while the Cubs are going with Nate Pearson.
CHICAGO CUBS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline +149
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, September 23rd.
HOW TO BET THE CUBS VS PHILLIES:
- We have the Cubs winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Cubs to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Cubs Records & Stats
Miguel Amaya and the Cubs are coming off a big 5-0 win over the Nationals to close out their series. Amaya went 2/3 with two RBIs and a homer. The Cubs really broke things open with a three-run 4th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Cubs were at -207 at home.
Shota Imanaga started for the Cubs, going seven innings and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just three hits and struck out four. The Cubs’s offense was carried by Michael Busch, who went 2/4 with a homer and scored three runs.
Chicago is nine games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and are 80-76 overall. The Cubs are 21-28 against other teams in the NL Central. Chicago is coming off a series win, taking three of four from the Nationals.
At home, the Cubs have gone 42-36 this year, and they are just below .500 at 38-40 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 81 of their games, going 43-38 in those games. As for their games as the underdog, the Cubs are 37-38. They have an overall series record of 22-25-3 this year.
When betting the run line with the Cubs this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 46-32 against the run line. Their overall run line record is 76-80, and they have a run differential of +0.4 runs per game. They have been a better bet against the run line as the underdog, going 49-26, compared to 27-54 as the favorite.
Chicago Cubs games have gone under the over/under line in three straight games, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season. The Cubs have a 73-78 over/under record for the season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, the Cubs have a 12-19-1 over/under record. In total, 77 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 49.4% of their games this season.
Right-hander Nate Pearson will be opening for the Cubs today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 57 appearances this season and has a record of 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA. Pearson most recently pitched on September 20th, where he went two-thirds of an inning out of the bullpen. In that outing, he didn’t give up a run, but he did give up one hit and a walk. Pearson has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. His ERA out of the bullpen is 6.32 compared to 4.09 at home.
Michael Busch has struggled over his last nine games, going 6/27 for a batting average of .222. However, he has hit three home runs in that stretch and driven in six runs. For the season, Busch is 2nd on the team with 21 homers. Ian Happ is the Cubs’ top home run hitter, with 25 long balls, and his 85 RBIs are the best on the team.
As a team, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are one of the better home run hitting teams in the league. They are also one of the better teams in terms of drawing walks. Chicago’s team batting average is .243, which is 12th in the MLB.
Phillies Records & Stats
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the bottom of the 7th before the Mets scored a run to tie things up. Philadelphia was the -141 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Zack Wheeler was excellent for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out eight. However, the Phillies couldn’t close things out, and Wheeler took the loss. Trea Turner was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored, but the Phillies only other run came in the 1st inning.
Philadelphia hosts the Cubs with an overall record of 92-64, which has them leading the NL East by five games over the Mets. The Phillies dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Mets and are just 4-6 across their last 10 games. At home, the Phillies are 52-26 this season.
As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 79-46 and 51-23 when favored at home. So far, they are 13-18 as the underdog. The team’s overall series record is 27-18-7 but have dropped two straight series.
The Phillies have been a solid run line bet this season, going 75-81 overall. They have been a better bet on the road, going 40-38, compared to 35-43 at home. They have an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game on the season, and that number jumps to +1.1 runs per game at home. They have been a run line favorite in 125 games, going 59-66, and an underdog in 31 games, going 16-15. Their average run margin in wins is +3.9 runs per game, while it is -3.8 runs per game in losses.
The Philadelphia Phillies have played in 73 games with over/under lines set at 8 runs, and their record in those games is 18-18-2. Their average combined run average for the season is 8.9 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 73-75. The Phillies have played in 73 games with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 46.8% of their games this season.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Cubs at home. Nola has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 12-8 with an ERA of 3.54. So far, he has turned in 19 quality starts, one shutout, and one complete game. Looking back at his last outing, Nola finished with a no-decision after going seven innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Nola’s ERA at home is 3.81 compared to 4.48 on the road.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. The Phillies have been one of the league’s best home run hitting teams and also have a strong team batting average of .257.
Over the past six games, Nick Castellanos has gone 8/23 with two homers and is currently on a four-game hitting streak. Alec Bohm has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/20 with two homers in his last five games. For the season, Bohm is batting .288 with 15 homers, while Bryce Harper is hitting .283 with 29 homers.