 Pitt @ Michigan St.
The Panthers and Spartans both have something to prove when they clash at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday.
The Spartan offense has posted incredible numbers over its first two games. The games amounted to two victories by double-digit margins, but critics will quickly point out the low level of competition of Michigan State's opposition. Similarly, the Pittsburgh Panthers have displayed their usual defensive dominance, allowing only 13 points over two games. Again, the opposition was weak.
One of these teams will have to prove that it can perform at a high level against formidable competition on Saturday. Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt enters his third season off a depressing 2006, where the most talented team under his tenure opened up at 6-1, but finished at 6-6. Playing at Michigan State will certainly be a test for Pittsburgh considering the NFL draft and graduation crippled the Panthers at several key positions.
QB Bill Stull took over for the departed Tyler Palko to open the season but promptly injured his thumb in Pitt's first game against Eastern Michigan. Freshman quarterback Kevan Smith jumped in and finished the game then played all of the second game versus Grambling State. Although Smith wasn't asked to do much, 15-22 202 yards passing, he didn't make any crucial mistakes to set the Panthers back.
His basic job is to hand the ball off to running back LeSean McCoy. McCoy dominated Grambling State to the tune of 107 yards and three touchdowns, paving the way for a Panther victory. The running back's job will get increasingly difficult as Michigan State's defense has only allowed an average of 29 rushing yards per game so far. If Pittsburgh's offense is going to capitalize it will have to come through the air, where the Spartan's are vulnerable, giving up 254 passing yards per game.
Michigan State also entered the season needing to replace a departed veteran QB, but the Spartans had a plan in place. Junior Brian Hoyer had been studying underneath Drew Stanton for a few years and has slid into the starting QB role with ease. Saturday will certainly be a good grading scale for Spartan's slinger.
Pittsburgh's pass defense is among the best in the country, only giving up 129 yards per game, but the Panthers haven't exactly faced any 'air-it-out' teams so far. A litany of changes from 2006 in Pittsburgh's secondary and line backing corps will make defending a solid pass attack difficult.
Over the last 15 years Pittsburgh is 20-39 on the road after playing a home game the week before and a miserable 3-14 when coming off back-to-back home games. When coming off a home win the Panthers tend to let up points as the total has sailed 'over' 19 out of 27 times since 1992.
The Spartans are 1-1 ATS over two games, failing to cover their last time out against Bowling Green as a 17.5-point home chalk. Pitt has only had one game on the board, against Eastern Michigan in Week 1, and the Panthers covered as 20.5-point favs with a 27-3 win.
Oddsmakers originally posted Michigan State in as an 8-point home favorite over Pitt, however the public quickly backed the Spartans pushing the number up to 11 1/2. The total is set at 49.
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