Thursday Night Info

[Raji]

Backers of the West Virginia Mountaineers might be feeling like Peter Parker these days.



“With great power comes great responsibility,” Uncle Ben told young Pete as he made his first steps towards Spider-hood.



As the Mountaineers continue their march toward college football superpower status, it’s their backers bearing the responsibility for each win. The offensive juggernaut has impressed so many folks that the team’s spreads are becoming increasingly difficult with each passing week.



This Thursday the Mountaineers take their traveling road show to College Park as 16-point favorites. Keep in mind that West Virginia was only a 17-point favorite against the Maryland Terrapins last year in Morgantown.



We’ve since had a full year to gape at the backfield combo of Steve Slaton and Patrick White, both of whom are legit Heisman Trophy contenders. The Mountaineers lost some key talent on its offensive line but their 110 points in two games to open 2007 suggests the offense is fine. Their recent thumping of Marshall, in fact, underlined that the Mountaineers are far more than a two-man track squad.



So now they’re asked to thump a decent ACC squad by more than two touchdowns. West Virginia isn’t a defensive power – going back to last season, the Mountaineers have given up at least 23 points to eight straight opponents. That means they likely have to score at least 40 points on Thursday night in a hostile Byrd Stadium to deliver a payday.



Will they do it? If the Terps defense has its way, the Mountaineers won’t even come close.



Maryland’s defensive unit is embarrassed about last year’s loss at West Virginia and deservedly so. The Mountaineers scored 14 points before five minutes had gone by and rushed for 340 yards on the day. White only passed nine times as the Terps failed time and time again to stop the run.



The entire unit is using last year’s debacle in Morgantown as motivation this year and the coaching staff is helping, posting pictures of Slaton and White and articles gushing about the WVU run game over every defender’s locker.



Motivation is all well and good, but it’s personnel and strategy that will stop (or at least slow) the Mountaineers this year. What’s changed since last year?



For starters, Maryland’s defenders are better rested. The Terps lead the nation in time of possession in 2007 and the defense has been on the field a total of 48 minutes this year compared to 65 in the first two games last year. That leaves Maryland with a lot more juice in the tank for chasing West Virginia’s speedsters, which means a lot in a severely shortened week.



The Terrapins also have an extra year of experience under Chris Cosh. Last year’s trip to West Virginia was the team’s third game under the then-new defensive coordinator and it showed. Maryland’s defense improved as the 2006 season went on and the improvement continued into 2007, when the ‘D’ regularly outperformed the offense during spring drills.



Further, Maryland has recruited well defensively and has far more depth, especially in the front seven, than either of the Mountaineers’ first two foes. West Virginia has scored more points in the second half in both their 2007 games, a sign that their inferior opponents’ lack of depth caught up to them after the break. Having reliable second-stringers will be huge against West Virginia, where tireless upfield blocking is demanded of receivers and linemen alike.



On an individual level, Maryland has a pair of mountains in the middle of its defensive line in Dre Moore and Carlos Feliciano, both intent on shutting down the gaps West Virginia exploited last year. The most likely candidate to single-handedly disrupt West Virginia’s offense, however, is weakside linebacker and Playboy All-American Erin Henderson. He’s excellent in pursuit and as driven as anyone else to right last year’s wrongs.



Motivation, rest, experience, depth and a bit of star power are the key ingredients in Maryland’s recipe to slow down the Mountaineers on Thursday.



I don’t think it’s enough to trigger an upset win in College Park, but I think the Terps will keep the Mountaineers under 40 points on Thursday. Add that to Maryland’s offensive array of weapons and I’m counting on the heavy home dogs to cover the number and regain some respect from bettors, if not football nation as a whole.




Raji

[Raji]

The matchup: West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET at Byrd Stadium in College Park, Md.

The line: Maryland +16, 65 points

Weather forecast: Temperature will be slightly below 70 degrees throughout the game, with cloud cover but little chance of precipitation in College Park and the southeasterly wind will rarely top 5 mph in the evening.

Key injuries

West Virginia: Linebacker Archie Sims and receiver Nate Sowers are out with hamstring pulls. Defensive nose guard Keilen Dykes hopes to play with a sprained foot, but will be a game-day decision on Thursday. Wes Lyons, a rare WVU skill position player with height, played 21 snaps against Marshall and can expect more this week at Maryland.

Maryland: Backup middle linebacker Alex Wujciak was lost for the season in late summer and backup cornerback Richard Taylor is out this Thursday too.

Three reasons why West Virginia could cover:

1. Rich getting richer: Darius Reynaud scored the Mountaineers’ first two touchdowns at Marshall and Noel Devine two of the last three, both displaying the same killer speed that Steve Slaton and Pat White have used to butcher opponents since mid-2005. Maryland should recall Reynaud’s pair of touchdowns from last year’s meeting, but freshman Devine is a new weapon in an already devastating artillery.

2. Potential for a fast start: West Virginia blitzed to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter when the Terps visited Morgantown last fall, effectively ending the game before it had started. Maryland has faced only Villanova and Florida International this year, not the best warm-ups for a legitimate national title contender. The Mountaineers also won the last meeting at College Park 31-19 when White was a backup and Slaton didn’t play.

3. Sheer habit: West Virginia has played 10 true road games against unranked opponents in the Slaton & White era. The Mountaineers are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games. The ATS losses were last week’s 24-point win in Marshall (which was a payday for bettors getting the opening line) and a 17-point win in East Carolina against the tough Pirates defense.

Three reasons why Maryland could cover:

1. Unleashed aerial attack: West Virginia allowed Marshall to compile 266 passing yards last Saturday despite the defensive coaches’ attempts to shut down the Herd’s receivers. Maryland boasts one of the ACC’s best receiving corps, and possibly the conference’s deepest. Head coach Ralph Friedgen is also likely to use more of the playbook against his first big opponent of the season, finally letting Jordan Steffy make plays when points are needed instead of relying on the run.

2. That’s a lot of points at home: The Terps lost only one game at Byrd Stadium last year and that loss was by 14 points. Maryland has lost at home by more than 16 points only once since the start of the 2003 season, a 28-9 loss to Virginia Tech on Oct. 20, 2005.

3. They’ve excelled at keep-away so far: Maryland leads the nation in time of possession through the season’s first two weeks, something the Terrapins would love to maintain on Thursday to keep the Mountaineers’ offensive weapons off the field. Maryland limited both Villanova and Florida International to 50 offensive snaps while possessing the ball more than 60 percent of the time.

Cool stat of the day

West Virginia has been favored on the road by double-digits six times since the start of 2005, when Slaton and White were freshmen. The Mountaineers have won all six of those games by an average of 25.1 points. The smallest margin of victory was the 17-point win at East Carolina.

Key quote

“If something's open, you gotta take it right away,” Steffy told Maryland's student newspaper The Diamondback, about passing short against Florida International last Saturday when receivers were open further downfield.

“That's what I did. On the one third down, if I had waited a little longer, I might have had something down the field, but again if I see something come open early, I'm gonna take it.”

“We’re going to let it all hang out on Thursday.”

Maryland +16

Raji

[Raji]

Everything looks wonky in the Mountain West Conference, with the Air Force Falcons and Wyoming Cowboys sitting atop the conference standings at 2-0.

Air Force had recorded three straight losing seasons under former head coach Fisher DeBerry, but based on last Saturday’s 20-12 win as 7-point underdogs in Salt Lake City, casual bettors might wonder if there’s a power shift underway in the Mountain West.

After all, hadn’t new man Troy Calhoun promised to spice up the Falcons’ triple-option with more passing? Isn’t it possible that Air Force has overcome its recruiting handicap through sheer strategy?

In a word, no.

Air Force toppled a limping Utah Utes squad with the same attack it always features in recent years: running, running and more running. The Falcons gained 334 yards on the ground compared to just 56 through the air against Utah. Add in Air Force’s opener against South Carolina State, when the Falcons rushed for 279 yards, and you’re looking at one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the nation … again.

“Zero. Zero,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham told the Colorado Springs Gazette after the loss to the Falcons when asked if he saw huge differences in this year’s Air Force attack compared to previous seasons.

“Different formations, same stuff. They’re going to beat you with what they’ve always hung their hat on – the double- and triple-option. It’s just coming from different formations, but it’s the same attack.”

Don’t think TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson hasn’t noticed. He watched the tape of Air Force’s win over the Utes and said in the weekly MWC teleconference that Air Force is running the ball more than ever.

Which brings us to Thursday night’s game in Colorado Springs, in which TCU is an 8-point road favorite.

Air Force loyalists say there’s no better time to face the preseason MWC faves, with the Falcons coming off an upset win and the Horned Frogs fresh off a 21-point loss. Personally, I think that last week’s results give TCU betting value that wouldn’t have been imagined in the preseason.

After all, this is the same school that’s smoked Air Force by scores of 48-10 and 38-14 since joining the Mountain West in 2005.

The same TCU that is 23-4 straight up (SU) and 19-7 against the spread (ATS) since the start of 2005, compared to Air Force’s 10-15 SU and 10-14 ATS over the same span.

The same Horned Frogs who smoked a Big 12 opponent 27-0 to open the 2007 season while the Falcons took on a second-tier school.

The same small conference powerhouse that led the No. 7 Texas Longhorns, in Austin no less, for 44 minutes last Saturday before an unfortunate fourth quarter led to an uglier final score than the Frogs deserved.

The same overwhelming preseason conference favorites who started the season in the national rankings and who feel slighted that a single road loss to a powerhouse bumped them to the “others receiving votes” category.

The same defense that features Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz, NFL-bound ends with something to prove after being handled by the Horns. Air Force quarterback Shaun Carney ran for 113 yards last week at Utah but might be running for his life this week against Blake and Ortiz.

TCU is a football school reacting to last week's loss the right way: the Frogs are ornery and grateful they only have to wait five days to lay a licking on an opponent.

There’s no power shift in the Mountain West – this is the week in which the conference order is restored. It starts on Thursday night.


Raji