Pac 10 Preview

[Raji]

The Pac-10 has mighty USC in its fold, but many of its other schools have trouble winning respect from the non-West Coast set.

Pac-10 teams, however, were good bets in 2006. The six conference schools that ended up in bowl games were 13-8 against the spread (ATS) when playing non-conference opponents, 11-4 ATS during the regular season. Because they happened so early, UCLA’s 21-point win over Utah, Arizona State’s 29-point win over Nevada, and Arizona’s win over BYU were largely forgotten but have significance in hindsight.

That’s worth noting before the 2007 season kicks off with eight Pac-10 teams playing non-conference foes in Week 1.

Southern Cal is everyone’s preseason No. 1 and understandably so. But Trojans backers should be concerned that the hype will send USC spreads back into the stratosphere. The school was also a preseason No. 1 in 2004 and 2005 and only went 14-12 ATS in those years thanks to being favored by at least three touchdowns 17 times in 26 games.

Why so much confidence in L.A.? Try the return of 10 starters to the best defense in the country, a Heisman Trophy favorite returning at quarterback, an absolute smorgasbord of talent fighting for the few available jobs and a coaching staff that can effectively run the nation’s top football factory.

USC lost its pair of 1,000-yard receivers, but that’s the closest you can come to poking holes in the Trojans’ 2007 roster. If you think John David Booty will lack targets this year, you don’t understand head coach Pete Carroll’s recruiting pipeline. The Trojans are talented enough to go undefeated in any conference in the country. The concern for bettors, as noted above, is the massive spreads they’ll face weekly.

Predicted record: 12-0

UCLA Bruins

The Bruins were 4-5 heading into the 2006 homestretch but salvaged the season with three straight wins as an underdog, including a 13-9 stunner over USC. The rally lifted their ATS record to 8-4 before the Bruins allowed a season-high 44 points to Florida State in an Emerald Bowl loss.

Optimism abounds for 2007, however, because 20 starters return from 2006. The defense became a team strength last season, with the Bruins holding four bowl-bound teams to 12 points or fewer. End Bruce Davis highlights an outstanding pass rush that racked up 30 quarterback sacks in just nine Pac-10 games.

UCLA’s offense took a step back in 2006, but the unit’s experience alone should ensure a jump from last year’s average of 23 points per game. There’s uncertainty over who should start at quarterback, but whoever takes the bulk of snaps should be well-protected. New offensive coordinator Jay Norvell promises a trickier offense in L.A. this year, so keep an eye on the opener at Stanford for progress.

Predicted record: 9-3

California Golden Bears

Cal recovered after its opening-week loss at Tennessee last year by rattling off six straight wins and outscoring its opponents 240-94. The Bears went 5-0 ATS during the stretch but 0-6 ATS the rest of the regular season, before trouncing Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl to finish off a Jekyll-and-Hyde campaign.

The offensive unit looks strong again with DeSean Jackson playing the role of America’s most dangerous weapon, quarterback Nate Longshore returning and Justin Forsett ready to be a 1,000-yard man now that Marshawn Lynch is in the NFL. The Bears have averaged at least 32.6 points per game every year during head coach Jeff Tedford’s tenure and shouldn’t have a problem matching that number this year.

The problems for Cal in 2007 are on the defensive front seven and with the schedule. The Bears lost a lot of experienced defenders, especially on the line. They are also challenged by the fact that they have to visit all three schools viewed as their main competitors for second place in the Pac-10.

Predicted record: 9-3

Oregon Ducks

Oregon was 7-2 straight up (SU) before a trio of duds to close the regular season sent the Ducks waddling toward the not-so-prestigious Las Vegas Bowl, where they were promptly handed a 30-point loss by BYU.

There’s hope in Eugene for 2007, though. Dennis Dixon is the unquestioned starter at quarterback, has a potentially great runner behind him in Jonathan Stewart and has some freakish targets on the outside, led by Jaison Williams who weighs 240 and has sprinter’s speed. The O-line is above average by conference standards. The Ducks’ 2006 defensive numbers were skewed by the late collapse, when they allowed at least 30 points in each of the final four games. There’s too much experience for a repeat performance.

The Ducks posted a winning ATS record in the Pac-10 for the fourth straight year in 2006 and have a friendlier conference schedule this time around. If Dixon develops as hoped, the Ducks will be a bettors’ boon for a fifth straight season.

Predicted record: 8-4

Oregon State Beavers

OSU was shut out of the national rankings through most of 2006 despite beating USC and finishing third in the Pac-10 standings at 6-3 SU. It took season-ending wins over non-conference foes Hawaii and Missouri to rise to No. 21 following the Beavers’ 10-win campaign.

Whether Oregon State can reach 10 wins again largely rests on the left arm of new quarterback Sean Canfield. He has one of the conference’s best offensive lines in front of him and top-notch talent at the skill positions to support him, led by running back Yvenson Bernard and receiver Sammie Stroughter.

The defense has a host of returning starters and the front seven especially is filled with impact players. The Beavers have a top placekicker in Alexis Serna and Stroughter is almost as dangerous as Cal’s DeSean Jackson on returns. The black cloud over Cornvallis is the schedule, one that features only one non-conference “gimme” and far more road tests in conference play compared to 2006.

Predicted record: 7-5

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils appeared in the national rankings in each of the previous five seasons under Dirk Koetter but never fared well against its ranked opponents during those years: ASU was 2-15 SU and 4-13 ATS against ranked teams from 2002 through 2006.

Now Dennis Erickson runs the show in Tempe and there are expectations that he and his coaching pedigree will lead the Sun Devils to big things. And what a schedule Erickson has to start out! The Sun Devils could be 8-0 SU before the challenging part of the conference schedule starts.

Arizona State returns a lot of talent to its offense, including quarterback Rudy Carpenter and running back Ryan Torain, both of whom are expected to flourish under new offensive coordinator Rich Olsen’s sped-up attack. The defense is problematic, losing half of its top 10 tacklers from last year, but the soft schedule at the beginning of the season could be a confidence-building experience for the unit.

Predicted record: 7-5

Arizona Wildcats

On the plus side, Arizona became bowl-eligible last year for the first time in almost a decade, thanks to a late-season rally that included three SU wins over Pac-10 opponents when the Wildcats had been double-digit underdogs. On the minus side, they have a tough schedule with four challenging road games within the season’s first seven weeks.

Arizona brought in Sonny Dykes to put some charge in an often lifeless offense. The Wildcats averaged only 169 passing yards per game last season whereas Texas Tech averaged 369 per game under Dykes in 2006. It remains to be seen if Arizona has the offensive personnel to run the spread with similar effectiveness, though ‘Zona fans remain high on quarterback Willie Tuitama.

The defense returns a ton of experience, though the talented secondary might be frustrated by the front seven’s lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Arizona failed to record a sack in six of its nine conference games last year.

Predicted record: 6-6

Washington State Cougars

The Cougars were 6-3 SU and ATS going into the homestretch last year before ruining their chances at a bowl appearance with three straight conference losses as a favorite. Wazzu might be hard-pressed to reach .500 again thanks to an inexperienced secondary and questions about the Cougars’ ability to run the ball.

Quarterback Alex Brink was second-team All Pac-10 last year, which is saying something in such a pass-heavy conference. He has a savvy line in front of him, but lost some prime targets going into the season.

Washington State hasn’t had a winning record when favored under Bill Doba in his four seasons as head coach. The Cougars are a combined 9-17 ATS as a favorite under Doba, who regains control of the defense this year in Pullman.

Predicted record: 5-7

Washington Huskies

It’s been said many times but it bears repeating: Washington’s 2007 schedule shows a masochistic side shared by no other school in the nation. If the Huskies don’t beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome in the season opener, UW alumni could return for homecoming to watch an 0-7 team face Arizona.

Looking on the positive side, at least Washington will be an underdog plenty of times this year, giving the Huskies a shot for a second-straight winning season ATS (after posting a losing ATS record in every other season this decade, going 25-41-2 ATS overall from 2000-2005).

Quarterback Jake Locker has a lot of hype to meet and a lot of tough opponents to keep him from doing so. There are too many key bodies to replace on defense and special teams, and as much as head coach Tyrone Willingham is doing right in Seattle, it won’t show in this year’s record.

Predicted record: 3-10

Stanford Cardinal

Stanford took a serious step backwards in 2006, losing eight of its 12 games by three touchdowns or more and ending up as a 3-9 ATS money pit for backers. All this happened despite going 19-12-1 ATS in the previous three seasons. The school hired ex-NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh to turn things around this year, though it’s a concern that he lacks Division 1A coaching experience.

The offense should be a lot better in 2007 (it can’t get much worse, after scoring just 10.6 points per game in 2006). Quarterback T.C. Ostrander has plenty of experience and a talented group of receivers to help him out. The defense is less a cause of optimism, losing three of its top four tacklers and lacking the blue-chip talent to keep up with Pac-10 talent.

The Cardinal could be a decent ATS bet again this year, but there’s no chance of a postseason appearance.

Predicted record: 1-11

Raji