Top surprise teams for 2007

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College football six-pack: Top surprise teams for 2007
Wed, May 23, 2007By Tim Roberts

We’re a solid three months and change away from the 2007 season’s official kickoff, but sportsbooks are already offering props on national and conference championships, meaning season win totals can’t be far behind.

So now that college football is on your mind again, here are six teams we believe could be great bets this season.

Keep in mind that the point is not whether these teams are in the hunt for the BCS Championship. These are generally squads whose records last year didn’t quite reflect their talent level, which will probably keep public bettors away this year. Add in some friendly schedules and you’ve got some schools that could end up in a more prestigious bowl game than most folks expect.

In any case, these schools are likely to get friendlier lines in September than they'll see at the end of November. Presented in alphabetical order (all odds from TheGreek.com sportsbook unless otherwise noted):

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1000 to win the ACC Coastal Division)

The Yellow Jackets featured college ball’s most dangerous offensive weapon last year in Calvin Johnson. He’s gone now, likely taking some public money away from Georgia Tech. That gives the Jackets, who could’ve easily claimed an Orange Bowl slot last season, unexpected value for bettors.

Taylor Bennett replaces Reggie Ball at quarterback after a great spring camp and tailback Tashard Choice returns to the backfield. More importantly, almost every starter on Tech’s monster defense returns.

The Jackets open against Notre Dame and close against Georgia, a tough pair of non-conference games. They could sweep all 10 games in between those bookends, however, as they’re at home for the bulk of their tough ACC games.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (+650 to win the ACC Atlantic Division)

The Wolfpack trademark under former head coach Chuck Amato was inconsistency, an adjective never used to describe Amato’s replacement Tom O’Brien. Boston College became an automatic bowl team under O’Brien and Pack backers hope for more of the same in Raleigh.

Bettors’ expectations, however, will be somewhat lower than your partisan NC State fan, especially with a trip to Boston College and home games against Clemson and Louisville all in September.

NC State could steal one of those three, however, and set itself up for an 8-4 or even a 9-3 season behind a running game ready to shine under a coach who loves to run the ball.

Northwestern Wildcats (+2500 to win the Big Ten)

No one expects Northwestern to win its back-to-back games against Ohio State and Michigan at the end of September, but the Wildcats could still exceed expectations thanks to avoiding Wisconsin and Penn State in their Big Ten schedule.

This will be the team’s second season under Pat Fitzgerald, who’ll be far more prepared than he was when pressed into unexpected duty last year. Bettors can’t underestimate the negative effect that former coach Randy Walker’s tragic offseason death had on the team last fall.

Northwestern has the offensive talent to put up points and a defense that should be much improved from last year. The Wildcats also have a home-heavy schedule that could boost them all the way to eight or nine wins before bowl season.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+1200 to win the Big 12)

College Football News likes the offensively-gifted Cowboys as a darkhorse Big 12 champ, based on the returning youngsters in the program. TheGreek.com lists OSU +800 to win the Big 12 South, the second-longest odds of the six teams involved.

There are no worries about Oklahoma State putting points on the board, but the upsets against the conference’s bigger programs could happen if new defensive coordinator Tim Beckman can tighten up the Cowboys’ overall defense.

Opening the season with a visit to Georgia should show how potent the offense really is. The Cowboys’ massive test (and biggest opportunity for backers) is an October featuring road games against Texas A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Oregon Ducks (+5000 to win the national championship)

Last season’s disastrous finish should leave a bad taste in the mouth of the betting public, but it could also inject lots of value in a Ducks squad that answered its quarterback question and is ready to challenge the Pac-10 big boys.

Dennis Dixon charged ahead of Brady Leaf in the spring and should line up behind center all season in new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s spread offense. Dixon will have skilled weapons at his disposal as good as, if not better than, all of Oregon’s opponents this year.

The Ducks’ early-season visit to Michigan is the unquestioned killer road game on the schedule. They get USC, Cal and Washington State at home and that makes Oregon a decent play to take the conference at +650 at TheGreek.com.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (no odds yet available)

Boise State was last year’s non-BCS conference star, TCU is expected to fill that role this year, and everyone’s eyeing Utah, Hawaii and BYU too. Tulsa might not be able to beat all five, but a glance at their schedule suggests they might offer the best value in the mid-major bunch to reach double-digit wins this year.

All three of the Golden Hurricane’s toughest conference games are at home and a September win over BYU would set the tone for a 10-win campaign despite mighty Oklahoma rolling into Tulsa a week later.

Tulsa lost Steve Kragthorpe who took over the head job at Louisville but Tulsa replaced him with a head coach (Todd Graham) and offensive co-ordinator (Gus Malzahn) whose combined goal is to light up C-USA. InsideTulsaSports.com reports that senior quarterback Paul Smith quickly took to the team’s hurry-up, no-huddle offense.


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