 Tonights Game
Importance of the game to North Carolina: The Tar Heels are just 1-5, but have a chance to make a run at a bowl game still. They only have two road games left after this week- Notre Dame and Duke. Their home games are tough, but the Tar Heels have pulled off home upsets in the past. They get Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State at home down the stretch. If the Tar Heels can manage to go 5-1 in these next six games, a bowl game is a good possibility. That is a tough task, but to do that, this is a near must win for them.
Importance of the game to Virginia: The Cavaliers are 2-5 on the season, but (like North Carolina) are still hoping to get on a roll and get to a bowl game. That is highly unlikely with a home date with North Carolina State and Miami still ahead along with road games against Virginia Tech and Florida State. This one may be necessary to avoid a double digit loss season. For Virginia, it is important to win at home in a nationally televised game to help show off the program and help with recruiting. It could also help save Al Grohs job.
Breakdown:
North Carolina Offense vs. Virginia Defense: The Tar Heels offense depends a lot on Ronnie McGill at running back. He averages 4.1 yards per carry and has five touchdowns this season. Cam Sexton, the redshirt freshman quarterback, has not completely caught onto the system yet, it appears. He has completed just 41 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and eight interceptions. Brooks Foster leads the team in receptions with 23 for 11.4 yards per catch. Hakeem Nicks has 16 catches for 13.2 yards per catch and Jesse Holley has 19 catches for 16.2 yards per catch. All three receivers have one touchdown. That is a good group of receivers, and McGill needs to have a big game running the ball for the offense to succeed. The Cavaliers defense has allowed 3.3 yards per carry. Opponents are completing 61 percent of their passes for 11.7 yards per completion. The Cavs have come up with 23 sacks on the season. Jon Cooper leads the team with 55 tackles, including six for a loss. Jeffrey Fitzgerald has ten tackles for a loss and four and a half sacks on the season. Marcus Hamilton has already intercepted four passes this season. If the defensive line can get pressure on Sexton and force some turnovers, then the pressure shifts to McGill to have a big game. The question is if he will or not.
Virginia Offense vs. North Carolina Defense: The Cavaliers offensive reigns have been handed over to Jameel Sewell, who appears more and more confident every week. Sewell has completed 56 percent of his passes for five touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has a rushing touchdown. His main target to throw to has been Kevin Ogletree, with 31 catches for 12.3 yards per catch and four touchdowns. The running game is lead by Jason Snelling, who is averaging 4.5 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns so far this season. The Cavaliers have allowed 17 sacks already this year. The North Carolina defense is giving up a robust 4.9 yards per carry. Opponents are completing 66 percent of their passes for 12.4 yards per completion. This is why they are allowing 35.7 points per game. Hilee Taylor leads the team in sacks with three, while Larry Edwards leads the team with 42 tackles. He also has four tackles for a loss. The Tar Heels will try to put pressure on Sewell and force him to make some mistakes. Snelling will have to have a big game running the ball against the Tar Heels because the Cavs cant rely solely on Sewell to win this one.
Prediction: The easy thing to do is to pick Virginia since they are the home team and neither team is playing well. After all, the Tar Heels were pounded 37-20 by South Florida in Chapel Hill last week. Still, Virginia has very little to play for with a bowl game so unlikely at this point, while North Carolina truly believes they can win against this schedule and get to a bowl game. This should be a coming out party for either Sewell or Sexton, and it may be easier to play well on the road than at home in this situation. The stats seem to favor Virginia, but their schedule has been slightly easier so far. McGill and the ground game will help Sexton get just enough in a tight game for Tar Heels. N.C 27,VA 21
Im taking N.C. and the points. GOOD LUCK!!! | 
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