 Saturday's NCAAF Free Pick with Expert Analysis
NCAAF Free Pick by Matt Fargo of Vernon Croy Sports
NCAAF Navy vs. Connecticut
Take Navy Midshipmen
Navy lost a tough game in overtime this past Saturday and with this being the first of four straight difficult games coming up, it is imperative to get this victory. The Midshipmen continue to run over the opposition as they lead the nation with 330.5 ypg on the ground. Connecticut allows a very solid 99 ypg and 2.6 ypc but it has faced only one team, Wake Forest, with a decent running attack and that happened to be its only loss thus far. Coming off that difficult loss will have Navy even more focused on Saturday. Connecticut has defeated 1-AA Rhode Island and a very suspect Indiana team by a single touchdown. The Huskies possess one of the best rushing teams in the country, ranking 10th in rushing offense but that is severely skewed. 419 of their 802 yards came in that Rhode Island game so their 191.5 ypg average in the 1-AA games would rank them 23rd, a significant difference. Also, their yards per carry average drops from 5.3 ypc to 3.8 ypc which is an enormous dropoff. The Huskies have averaged only 13.5 ppg against 1-A competition while the Navy defense has done an excellent job against some potent offenses. Connecticut is 34th in the country in total offense with 391.7 ypg but it put up 568 yards in its opener against 1-AA Rhode Island so that average needs to be taken lightly. Navy is 38th against the run, allowing 104.5 ypg and 3.6 ypc. The Midshipmen have not played the most difficult of schedules either but it has been much stronger. Navy's defense has allowed 1,025 yards passing through four games this season. That's a significant increase from the previous four seasons but it is something that wont matter here. Connecticut is 111th in the country in passing offense and 96th in passing efficiency offense as it is completing only 55.2 percent of its passes. The Huskies will also be starting a new quarterback this week as Matt Bonislawski takes over. He started five games last season but has yet to se action this year so rustiness is an issue. The rushing factor is huge as it carries forward for this team. Navy is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 road games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Navy is a strong team when being asked to rebound as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss while it is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 games as a road underdog. Navy runs all over the Huskies here. Play Navy Midshipmen 1 Unit | 
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