bigdaddyrich week 5 ncaa

[bigdaddyrich]

counting these weeknight games on my record...but not the 60% i am trying to hit again. betting small just to beef up my account before laying it out there again. easy week of capping for me because i only like 6 spreads. unless i see some totals i like tonight i just gotta cut out one loser to get my 5. anyways on to tonight. ucf +6 for like a 3 unit bet...ucf +220 for like a 1 unit bet. explained a little in the weeknight thread started by btb. good luck all. after a winning week at ncaa FINALLY...and an outstanding week of nfl posted in my ncaa thread...i am ready to get on this shiat this week and start breaking the man.

[bigdaddyrich]

adding a small play on the under 47. so miss d has been good and the ucf o has not...so the only way i see ucf winning is in an ugly game. also...several pages i look at for early spreads and thoughts had it set at around 40 before we got to see the lines. 24-14 ucf.

[bigdaddyrich]

gonna go ahead and place my friday night bet before the spread moves. so florida wins have come late in the game after starting poorly...tho i have watched every one and dont see how they have won at all. i am taking the 1st half for that reason...rutgers -2. i think rutgers is gonna get pounded by gamblers and that spread is gonna grow a lot before friday. that always scares me...so here is to a bad start and rutgers leading at the half before a late so florida rally that screws america outta their money.

[BangTheBook]

Bigdaddy you gotta drop those plays over in the NFL forum. We missed out on some good plays over there. Going to check your other post now and see if I cant get some more info on this game
Thanks
Ryan

[bigdaddyrich]

gotta figure my record tonight or tomm. i know it is still a game or two under 500...but now we are headed in the right direction. on to thursday. so far i am liking byu i think +5.5. gonna wait till thurs afternoon to say for certain and watch the line. thinking right now is the score last year was 51-50...and so far this year byu has put up some points against quality d's. tcu managed 12 against tech and 17 against baylor...2 d's that are average at best. just dont really see how tcu should be favored in this game after a quick look. after the zona game this byu o has looked very good...and cost me some money after watching them struggle in that zona game 1st time out. they showed against bc that you are gonna have to outscore them to win...or feed off their mistakes. think the line is in tcu favor just because they are so good at home...but this is against a bunch of weaker teams for the most part. one thing i know for certain...they will need more than they scored on baylor and tech combined to win this game...not cover but just to win. anyone else see byu just beating the snot outta them? gonna hold off before i bet it...but those are my early thoughts. kinda scared to bet against auburn in the other game...but i will prolly do it if it goes over 14. so carolina had a "get well" game against fla atlantic to give them some confidence on o and that d looks very good. i think you kinda gotta throw out the wofford game here because a lot of teams have had problems with d-2 teams this season for some reason. surely so carolina was not focused on this game and wofford was. dont know where the hell wofford is...but i am thinking it is in so carolina. this would make it a much bigger game for them than sc. gotta think on this one too and watch the spread. early thoughts are both dogs. might be best just to fade the line movement this week as i see the majority of gamblers getting raped on weeknight games this week. people have jumped all over fav after fav and won big...but weeknight football is the ncaa version of mnf in nfl because it is always a big moneymaker for books. my pops was always the biggest book in town as i grew up until he passed on last year...so i have a little different way of thinking compared to most people. he told me when people are jacking up a spread and it is clearly one sided then you can easily clear 75% siding with the house in these games alone. that is why i usually wait til late to decide on weeknight games. anyways...long ass post just to say i am thinking both dogs thurs right now...lol.

[bigdaddyrich]

couple more things before i hit the sack. first to ryan. i posted in the nfl forum twice and i think i am like 3-3. posted in ncaa thread this week and rolled out very nicely. you know how baseball players wont shave or take a bath if they are on a good streak?...well that is kinda what i am thinking...lol. going in my ncaa thread until i have a losing week...but i will still shower and shave i guess...haha. 2nd...do any of you all play poker online? if so hit me up and let me know where and your name. i play in a lot of poker rooms...but playing mainly in diamond right now because i am trying to build that account for basketball. let me know your names so i can go easy on you...lol.

[Wizard]

I played UCF last night and got the win but I have never seen a team that should have won straight up try to give a ballgame away. It kinda reminded me of the Alabama game last saturday. Alabama had the win in their pocket and couldn't hit a field goal to put the ballgame away. When a coach plays just to win he is gambling that his team will just win. I think this is a mistake and they deserve to lose. If shula had gotten his team closer to the end zone I believe he would have won the game and his kicker would have hit thefield goal he needed. But he just kept running the ball into the middle of the line that gave them trouble all day. I don't like him and never will. I pulled all of my support and donations to Alabama when they hired him. When your kicker misses 3 field goals a light should go off and it is telling you , your kicker needs to be closer to the end zone in order to make the field goal. But ??????????????????

Anyway congratulation on your wins last night.

The Wizard has spoken

[bigdaddyrich]

i agree that ucf looked capable of winning because i thought they would. just dont think you can put this one on the so miss coach tho. they won one of the biggest games in school history last week...and then had to turn around and get ready to play on tuesday. that is part of the reason i liked ucf. it was a tough spot for them. you could tell at the end they just wanted badly to kill the clock and get the hell outta there...lol. lucky for us it was a funky score and we got our win. ucf really did the same thing against so florida to lose that game. will most likely be the last time i bet on them til they show some improvement and consistentency. i agree with what you said tho man. shouldnt just try to do just enough to win the game. if oklahoma wudda kept their foot on the gas and not kicked fgs late in the game we would never have been talking about a replay in that game. didnt see the bama game...but i have seen plenty like what you are describing over the years. anyways...any win is a nice win right now and i will go ahead and take it i guess...lol. congrats and good luck this weekend man.

[bigdaddyrich]

23-25-4 as far as i can tell on ncaa football...had to go back and figure it up. 7-3 nfl spreads and 3-4 moneyline dogs. usually keep track all year but i lost my book that i started with and had to go back and sort thru posts. went ahead and took both dogs for thursday...reasoning above in this thread. byu +6...bought the half. so carolina +14.5...bought the half. like both games to go over...but i aint messing with totals for these games. sometimes those sec games end up like 13-8...funky low scoring games that are very hard to predict. hoping to even it up before the weekend. maybe even get ahead with a rutgers 1st half cover friday.

byu +6
so carolina +14.5
rutgers -2 1st half

holla back with ncaa saturday tomm night prolly. good luck all...and be careful on these weeknight games. makes it fun to have a little action on them...but spotlight games are coin flips for the most part because the linesmakers only have one game to focus on. take your big shots on the weekend.

[bigdaddyrich]

spread all the way up to 7 on the tcu game ALREADY. adding byu moneyline at +240 for a half bet. never know what is gonna happen in a weeknight game...but when a game is lopsided like this i always feel better being on the book's side. spread shudda been around a pick in all honesty to start with...so now it is a 7 point value in my book. i dont get excited bout weeknight games or waste a lotta money on them...but i am betting this one like a weekend game. dont know what people are seeing in a tcu team that scored 17 and 12 against baylor and tech. couldnt even muster 300 total yards against a tech d that everyone moves the ball on. might look dumb afterwards...but if i had to guess at a final score it would be 38-17 BYU. wish you all good luck if you are on tcu. i never put myself in a make or break situation with one game. have no problem doing it with 5-10 games if i feel i am that strong...but never one game. not that important to me this one game...so if anyone loads up huge on tcu i will be rooting for you. maybe tonight is the night they pull their heads out and move the ball a little. never know...but it is a bad spot for them to try to do this considering this is the best d they have faced so far this season. or maybe the tech game really was the tough tcu d of the past popping back up. i just know that against baylor they looked very weak on d. this was against a team running a totally different kind of o from the season before for the first time. anyways...not wasting any more time talking bout this game. on to the weekend. good luck all.