Hey guys,
I haven't had much to do at work so I thought I would take a look at some of the lines. These lines were provided by CFN so the lines may have changed since. I haven't played any games yet, but this is probably what I'll do:
Actual bets, these will probably be my play for the upcoming weekend with some commentary
**Utah -6 over San Diego St
The Utes will bring some good defense and shut down San Diego St as well as bring in a solid running game to control most of the game. I'm hoping by the time I get money in, I will catch the line at no more than 6.5...as I'm seeing this delicious one. The Utah qb still have some kinks to work out but I think San Diego will be a breeze even though they haven't show much other than a last hurrah in the 4th quarter with UTEP.
**UCLA -3.5 over Washington
Washington brought home a win over a good Fresno team. I think this is why the line is lower than people expect it. UCLA will come out offense a blazing. I'm unsure if Washington's crowd will keep UCLA in, but UCLA should come out of this game pretty easily with 10+ points. Scary thing about this game is Washington could pull the upset early, but it seems very unlikely. Should be a fun game to watch for the west coasters.
** Washington St -10 over Stanford
Washington St lost me some money and I don't know why I would be playing money on these guys....other than the fact it's Stanford. They've been bad...really bad the past 3 games. They 0-3 for a reason. If WSU messes this one up for me, I'm sure I won't play them again for the year.
** Louisville -7.5 over Kansas St.
I watched Kansas St last week vs Marshall and they certainly don't have the offense to match up with Louisville..but they definitely have defense. Louisville's defense just needs to cover the run, which is what KSt does for the 80% of the time. Should be a low scoring half and Louisville will find the mis-matches and exploit the holes. Even with backup qbs and rbs, Louisville's got a great offensive scheme to get the job done. I see Louisville up by 10+. I might buy .5 points though, just to be safe
**Boston College -6.5 over NC State
I hope to god I can catch this spread at 6.5. I see this one going up right before the game or the upcoming days. I find this is as a steal because BC has a great offense (if not the best in ACC) and is certainly a dark horse of the ACC. NC State has been struggling and as the analysts say, "it'll be a long season for the pack." Because NC State hasn't been producing on either side of the ball, BC will take this away pretty early. NC State is also one of the most undiscplined teams in Div I and always has so many penalty yards. Easy game for BC.
** Boise St -14 over Hawaii
Home game for Boise St. Hawaii is terrible on the road and can only play well at home. Not too many things to say here other than Boise St rocking the pants off Hawaii. They let me down at Wyoming but I definitely see a blow out at home. History's backing my money here, really
**UNC +16.5 over Clemson
I've been following Clemson ball instead of my hokies this season since Clemson has much better games and I saw enough in the NorthEastern game to know my team is solid til GT. Clemson is a team that plays to its competition, which will definitely help UNC out. They are also on an emotional high laced with perhaps some cockiness, so they'll let this game slip. Special teams was god awful so far from this squad and I don't think one weeks adjustments will really fix them. Clemson's going to be fighting a tougher game than expected. Also not to mention we havent' really heard anything yet from this underrated UNC team. I'm thinking Clemson wins by 1 td or less, but not the upset. The spread's high because they beat an overrated FSU team.
**West Va -21 over East Carolina
This spread might be covered in the first quarter like WVa did in their game against Maryland. But that was at home and the Mountaineers play well there consistently. The ECU folks won't bring a crowd other than to watch one of the top teams in the nation man-handle their guys. Also the qb and rb have to keep up their Heisman standings and continue to show the nation they are the real deal.
That's about 8 plays that I'm sure I'll do. Below are some thoughts that may turn to plays... after some additional reading and discussing:
UTEP -9.5 over New Mexico
One big reason I'm laying of this one is the fact that NM keeps screwing me over in the last quarter. I think this will be a complete blowout for UTEP, but I said that about Missouri taking NM easy. So if anyone was eyeing this one way or another, please let me know.... I'm stupid and I'm still tempted to play this..haha
Michigan -14 over Wisconsin
I saw this open up at 14.5 and in general I would ride with Wisconsin, but I think there are still new things to be shown from Michigan. They pulled a beautiful game at South Bend and just blew out an overhyped team. ND is a good team, but it shows to go that Michigan is just that much better. Michigan's home crowd will be a huge factor here and I think the main gambling public will ride Wisconsin here. The line looks oddly high for this game and it looks like a trap for people to load up on Wisconsin. I see Michigan playing another solid game to humiliate a pretty good Wisconsin team. Of course, this is my thought. I see the line moving down to 12.5-13 before game time. Discussion here would be nice as well
Minnesota -2.5 over Purdue
This was almost a play as I've noticed Purdue just hasn't been solid and they haven't been covering double digit spreads but rather trying to not get upset. The Minny Gophers have played some solid games aside from Cali game. The thing that is backing me off this game is the fact Minnesota is the first Big Ten game they face and could really get pumped up and somehow beat Minny. I dont' know too much of either team's history other than Minnesota can bring some good offense to the game.
Northwestern +7.5 over Nevada
Anyone find this line strange? I just don't see Nevada being this good despite NW's troubles but this game should be fairly a good match up determined by less than a td.
Some other thoughts with no particular commentary unless people want to go into it:
Missouri(h) -20.5 over Ohio
Kansas(h) -5.5 over South Florida
OK st over Houston(h)
Marshall +22.5 over Tennessee(h)
Oregon St (h) -23 over Idaho
LSU (h) -36.5 over Tulane
Florida(h) -23 over Kentucky
That's all for now. I'll announce my official plays by the time I get home
GL to people on week 4.
Cheers
-GY
GY week #4 
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