 Saturday NCAA Football Selection
Saturday NCAA Football Selection
Saturday, September 16, 2006
4:00 PM PT/7:00 PM ET
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
MISSISSIPPI STATE -11 over Tulane
A couple of winless teams take the field on Saturday when the Bulldogs host the Green Wave in a non-conference game. Not only has Mississippi State started the season with 2 losses, they are still looking for their first point of 2006 after being shutout out SEC foes South Carolina and Auburn. Tulane opened their season a week later than most of the country, getting drilled at Houston last Saturday, 45-7.
The Green Wave is coming off a hurricane-ravaged season and the hope that was the team had made strides in the offseason, but it was an atrocious performance last week. Tulane's ground game collected just 55 yards on 23 rushes against a defense not known for its toughness. The passing attack was only a little more successful in the setback, as the Wave finished with 169 yards through the air behind QB Lester Ricard. Tulane only recorded 8 first downs in the loss and struggled on third down, converting just 2-of-13 attempts.
The Green Wave defense tried to outdo their counterparts, by allowing 45 points and a whopping 621 total yards. Tulane was abused through the air as well as on the ground, surrendering 344 passing yards and 244 rushing yards. The team's trouble against the run simply continued, as they allowed nearly 200 ypg on the ground in 2005. Tulane surrendered 28 first downs and also allowed the Cougars to convert on half of their 14 third-down attempts and all 4 red zone chances.
Its not as if the Bulldogs have much to brag about. After struggling to gain just 161 total yards against South Carolina in the opener, the Bulldogs' troubles continued against Auburn as MSU finished with the same number; however, the level of competition has to be taken into consideration, as well as the fact that QB Tray Rutland was making his first start.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have been solid, especially against the run. Thus far the opposition is averaging just less than 100 ypg on just 3 ypc. Against the vaunted Auburn rushing attack last week, the Bulldogs held Kenny Irons and the Tigers to just 111 yards on the ground, though they surrender 249 passing yards in the setback.
After facing 2 fired-up SEC teams, Mississippi State will catch a break here. Facing the Tulane defense will be exactly what the young Bulldogs offense needs. By allowing 641 total yards, the Green Wave has given up more than 400 yards in five consecutive games and eight of the past nine. MSU coach Croom has made multiple changes on the offensive line since the start of preseason practice, but will go with the same starting line for the second consecutive game, giving the offense some much needed continuity.
The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU & ATS vs. Tulane, including 2-0 SU & ATS under Croom. In fact, Crooms first game at Mississippi State was the 2003 opener. As a 6½-point home favorite, the Bulldogs flattened the Wave, 28-7.
Looking at some other numbers, we note that Tulane is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on natural grass and 0-8 ATS as a non-conference road underdog of more than 1 point. While usually a double-digit underdog, Mississippi State is undervalued in this price range, as they are 5-1 as a home favorite or home dog of less than a TD.
We also note that since at least 1980 only 6 teams have been a home favorite off a conference home shutout SU loss of less than 44 points as an underdog of more than 7 points. Those teams are 6-0 SU & ATS, winning outright by more than 26 points and beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Once the Bulldogs break the scoring dam here against the Green Wave, the points should be plentiful, leading to a win of more than 2 TDs.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSISSIPPI STATE 31 TULANE 16 | 
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