[ProInfoSports]

Thursday NCAA FB Selection & Analysis

Thursday, August 31, 2006

3:30 PM PT/6:30 PM ET

Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)

BALL STATE -4½ over Eastern Michigan

A couple of MAC teams start the season in conference play on Thursday night when the Cardinals play host to the Eagles. Both teams are off less than stellar season; however, they finished in much different fashions. Ball State won 3 of their last 4 games, while Eastern Michigan went 1-5 in the second half of 2005.

The Eagles did anything but soar on offense last year, and with a new QB and RB in 2006, they don't figure to fly higher, especially early in the season. RB Anthony Sherrell is gone, so Pierre Walker is the man on the spot. He missed all of last season with a foot injury and has only three starts as a running back. Tyler Jones is the new QB and also lacks experience. On defense, they do have veteran players returning among the front seven; however, with a ton of inexperience in the secondary, expect EMU to struggle against the pass.

The Cardinals were nothing to brag about on offense last season, but the squad is in good shape with 10 starters returning. Joey Lynch returns at QB after setting the school single-season record of 18 TD passes. Ball State really wants to get back to pounding the football, and they have just the man with B.J. Hill. The sophomore has lighting speed and is a threat to break a long one each time he touches the football. Last season he averaged over 5 ypc as a freshman and is looking for a big year in 2006. Eight starters are back on the Cardinals defense, so expect some improvement there. Seven of the top eight players from the defensive front are returning and all of them have starting experience. The defensive backfield is an issue, as they'll be starting new cornerbacks; however, it's unlikely that Eastern will be able to take advantage here.

The Cardinals have had success against Eastern Michigan recently and we look for that to continue here. In looking at some technical numbers, we note that Ball State is a rock solid 13-0 ATS in conference games when scoring more than 24 points, while the Eagles are 0-5 SU & ATS in MAC play when allowing more than 24 points. Our POWER RATINGS show that Ball State should not have a problem scoring in this game.

No doubt, Eastern Michigan will have a little revenge on their minds Thursday night, as they blew a double-digit lead late in the game last year, allowing Ball State to steal a 1-point win; however, the Cards are 4-0 ATS at home against revenge-minded foes, and a PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM indicates that the Eagles have will also struggle in this spot. Game 1 conference road underdogs of 1½-15½ points seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 4 points in the last matchup are 0-8 SU & ATS in the only such qualifying games since at least 1980. The games were not even close, as the teams have lost SU by an average of nearly 24 points and failed to cover the number by nearly 18 points a game on average. While we don't expect a blowout of those proportions here, the Cards should come away with a victory of at least a TD.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 31 EASTERN MICHIGAN 24