Penn St / Florida St. Preview

[jtsneaks]

The often-criticized Bowl Championship Series worked out pretty well this season, not only giving us a #1 vs. #2 battle between USC and Texas, but the system also provides College Football fans with a matchup of the two winningest coaches in I-A history, Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno. This year's Orange Bowl participants are both rife in tradition, so there should be a lot of focus on this contest. Florida State and Penn State may be the two unlikeliest of BCS participants, but for completely different reasons. Florida State had lost three consecutive games, something that hadn't happened under Bowden in 20 years, prior to the team's upset of Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, Penn State, under the guidance of Joe Pa, had been floundering in the middle of the Big Ten for years, with many calling for the exit of Paterno. For this contest, the Nittany Lions have held steady as nine-point favorites since the opening line was established, as of this writing.

A couple of fine defensive teams for veteran coaches Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno make this one of the most interesting bowls. Penn State has excellent speed on both sides of the ball, led by senior quarterback Michael Robinson (2,097 pass yards, 785 rush yards). Florida State has freshman QB Drew Weatherford, who had growing pains with 17 TDs, 17 picks. Wait until he sees this Penn State defense! If it weren't for a wild loss on the final play at Michigan, Penn State (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) would be unbeaten. Florida State struggled against strong defenses and was 2-0 under the total as a dog.

Penn State (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) would have been unbeaten this season, if not for a last second loss at Michigan back on 10/15. After failing to cover the number in three of its first four contests, the Nittany Lions covered the number in each of their final seven games. They were a favorite of 8 or more in each of their final four ballgames down the stretch, so PSU has already demonstrated the ability to cover a number such as this.

Florida State (8-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) was able to endure one of the most sub-par seasons in Bowden's tenure en route to a surprise BCS appearance. However, while Penn State was busy turning a profit at the betting window down the stretch, FSU was doing the opposite. The Seminoles went just 2-6 ATS down the stretch, with the only cover besides the ACC Title Game upset, a 55-24 win over conference doormat Duke. However, take note that FSU is 10-2 ATS coming off a win by seven or less over a conference opponent.

Injuries to the defense in midseason and playing a freshman at QB hurt the Seminoles this year. But they battled back and surprised Va Tech, 27-22 as a 14-point dog. The FSU defense got healthier late in the season, holding Clemson, Florida, and Virginia Tech to 85, 73, and 41 yards rushing. Unfortunately, in the first 2 games, FSU turnovers led to easy scores for the opposition. Penn State completely overhauled their offense from a year ago. They basically doubled their points scored and averaged 219 yards rushing and 204 yards passing per game. But what put this team over the top was the play of the Nittany Lion defense. Paterno's boys led the Big-10 in pass efficiency defense and rank second in scoring, rush, total defense, and sacks!

The bottom line: Florida State lost three straight due to offensive line injuries, before upsetting Va Tech. The 'Noles gained just over 270 yards in that contest, but took advantage of numerous mistakes and turnovers by the Hokies. Saying they backed their way into a BCS bowl is an understatment. To upset Penn State, the Seminoles will need their offensive line to play their best game of the entire season against one of the stingiest defensive fronts in college football. If Penn State is to win, they'll need to establish the ground game early, which would keep the pressure of Michael Robinson. FSU is a beast when they stop the run, but have proven beatable this year when an opponent can efficiently run the football. PSU is the stronger and healthier team, but heading into this season, dogs were on a 25-14-1 ATS run in bowls played on or after New Year's Day.

JT Sneaks