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Old 12-15-2005, 11:32 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Ready for the Bowl Season?

When you are going to play the bowl games it is better to take time to study on the games before they start playing because when they do they come fast and furious and often you don't have time to cap them all correctly.

Here is an article that I found online that should help out with some of the Bowl games.




It’s the most wonderful time of the year.

But forget all the tree-trimming and dreidel-spinning and whatever non-denominational activities atheists, communists and scientologists get into this time of year.

For me the holidays are all about college football.

Starting on Dec. 20, me and the rest of the worshippers of the crystal football will enjoy two full weeks of bowl games, culminating with the greatest gift of all – a national championship game between the only two undefeated teams in the country.

Top that, Hanukkah Harry.

Just one small problem. If you’re like me, you’ve been spending every New Year’s Day since you could grow a good enough mustache to buy a six-pack, lying on the couch in the fetal position, hung over to the high heavens with only the endless stream of bowl games on television to soothe your pounding cranium.

Unfortunately, there’s no excuse for skipping out on dinner at the in-laws’ this year because there isn’t a single bowl game scheduled for Jan. 1.

Because the holiday falls on a Sunday, the NFL gets the airwaves to themselves and tradition be damned.

If I wasn’t so hungover, I’d be outraged.

Las Vegas Bowl

What better place to start the bowl talk than fabulous Las Vegas?

For me, nothing rings in the holidays like showgirls, blackjack and complimentary booze.

And it sounds like the kids from Cal feel the same way. Bears coach Jeff Tedford admitted earlier this week that staying focused on the game won’t be easy, pointing to a full schedule of pep rallies, banquets and hospital visits.

Sorry coach, but I think players getting loose in a children’s hospital is the least of your worries in Sin City.

On the other hand, the BYU Cougars think they have an advantage in Vegas – and it’s not the +7 points or the 20,000 fans expected to make the 340-mile trip from Provo, Utah.

Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall says in a place like Vegas, he feels better knowing that he’s got 29 seniors, 23 married men and 62 players who’ve completed Mormon missions.

BYU also has an Honor Code that stipulates players won’t break the law, drink alcohol, or engage in a list of other vices.

But as we know, what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Champs Sports Bowl

Colorado is a mess.

No wonder the books don’t have a line out on this game.

The Buffs have a concussed quarterback who may or may not play on Dec. 27, an offensive lineman suspended for a racist e-mail to another student, and a head coach in the unemployment line.

But even though things are chaotic in Colorado, Clemson head coach Tommy Bowden isn’t getting too cocky about his chances.

"When I talk to my team for the first time, I`m going to talk about recent history at Clemson," Bowden said. "We`ve had that happen to us twice at Clemson, where there`s a head coaching change before a bowl game, and we won both of them."

The Tigers won the 1978 Gator Bowl in Danny Ford’s coaching debut and more recently celebrated a Peach Bowl victory after Ken Hatfield was fired in 1993.

According to Bowden, Colorado is a dangerous team because of all the recent adversity.

"I think we`ll see a more focused team, a little wounded with their backs to the wall. We`re going to get their A-game, and I think recent history at Clemson shows that a team in that position can perform well."

But oddsmakers aren’t just waiting on Colorado’s Joel Klatt . They’re also holding off until they hear word on Clemson QB Charlie Whitehurst , who had arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder earlier this month.

Bowden says he’ll play in the game, "as long as he gets the practice time that is needed."

Holiday Bowl

This is where we’ll find out what kind of coach Bob Stoops really is.

After going to three national championship games in the last five years, Stoops’ Sooners are relegated to a not-even-close to BCS bowl game against a probably-should-have-been BCS bowl team.

Oklahoma fans wanted more than a 7-4 season and to them anything less than a date in Pasadena is a disappointment. But Stoops is more concerned with his young team with a lot of players who’d seen more presidential administrations than losses on the football field.

In that situation, he admits some players, “start to think it happens every year.”

But the Oregon Ducks are a 10-1 team with a chip on their shoulder. They were passed over by the Fiesta Bowl in favor of two teams with worse records and they’ll likely be fired up to prove themselves to the country.

Oregon also has the No. 8 passing attack in the country and if you can believe it, after a season-ending injury to quarterback Kellen Clemens , the offensive numbers actually went up.

Not good news for a team like Oklahoma, which showed a serious vulnerability to the pass all year.

But there’s still a chance. If Stoops can slow the pace with a steady running game and get his defense on track, the Sooners might surprise as 3-point underdogs in San Diego.

Outback Bowl

The No.1 thing on Urban Meyer’s mind heading into the Jan. 2 Outback Bowl is his No. 2 quarterback.

After learning that second-string pivot Josh Portis has decided to transfer, the Florida Gators coach suddenly found himself without an experienced backup for starter Chris Leak .

"Huge concern," Meyer said. "Keep Chris healthy."

Leak’s health hasn’t been an issue to this point in the season – Portis made occasional spot duty appearances, but Leak has shown Brett Favre-ish durability behind center.

He’ll face a tough Iowa defense that is ranked No. 3 in the Big Ten, but, this unit hasn’t had much success getting to the quarterback this year. With the exception of a six-sack game against Wisconsin on Nov. 12, this Hawkeyes defense doesn’t look much like the one that sacked Leak three times in a 2004 Outback Bowl victory.

Junior Gavin Dickey , who had switched from quarterback to receiver this year, has been taking snaps with the second team and redshirt freshman Cornelius Ingram has been practicing at quarterback and tight end.

Fiesta Bowl


I’m reminded of just about every season of 24 when I look at the Fiesta Bowl matchup.

Why?

Because much like the inevitable infiltration of C.T.U. by enemy spies, it seems Ohio State has a mole buried behind enemy lines and she could be turning over sensitive information to dangerous Buckeyes agents.

Apparently, the older sister of Notre Dame’s starting quarterback Brady Quinn is dating OSU star linebacker A.J. Hawk . Although Hawk says, “We don’t talk football with her” Laura Quinn seems concerned for her brother’s safety.

"He`ll be coming at Brady every play," Laura said. "He`s not someone you want to mess with."

No word yet on whether Laura put any money down on the Buckeyes as 4-point favorites, but considering the Irish haven’t won a bowl in their last seven tries, it might not be a bad idea.


JT Sneaks

Last edited by jtsneaks : 12-15-2005 at 05:08 PM.
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Old 12-16-2005, 02:18 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Thumbs up Here's another sneaks...

Most sports writers and others complain about too many bowl games and bad match-ups. I, for more years then I can count, have literally seen EVERY bowl game. The last one I remember not seeing was a Liberty Bowl on New Year's Eve, when I believe it was Navy and Ohio State. I tape them or do whatever, but I never miss one. Of course this year, the Rose Bowl is the best game, with numerous other intriguing match-ups. When handicapping I always follow the axiom of dogs before New Year's and favorites the rest way in studying the games. Totals have become increasingly important and sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly.

StatFox Steve says:
I too don't fall into that "too many games" propaganda. If it's football and its got a spread on it, the more the merrier I say! Like you, I can remember nearly every recent bowl game, though I have to admit that an ill-timed home project gone haywire last New year's eve threw a major wrench into my football watching plans. As far as what I like to look for in handicapping, I don't fully subscribe to the bland favorite-dog scenario which you mentioned nor some of the "this team's hot, this team's not" logic. It's way too simple. Game by game matchups and motivation are big for me. I also like to look for final games involving special players who've made a huge difference at their schools.

StatFox Doug says:
We have to start somewhere, so let's start with the first one. The New Orleans Bowl featuring the Sun Belt Champ Arkansas State and C-USA also ran Southern Miss. Your thoughts Steve....

StatFox Steve says:
Darn...I was trying to bait you into inquiring into my last comment about special players because on the surface it seems very simple. I'll give my further explanation anyway! I'm not talking about the USC stars or guys like that who've just picked up where past stars left off. I'm referring to the players who've led their teams to unchartered waters with outstanding performances. There were three great examples that I pointed out before last season's bowls in 1) QB Dan Orlovsky of UConn 2) QB Timmy Chang of Hawaii, and 3) QB Alex Smith of Utah. All three won their games easily behind sterling performances. I see at least two potentials right now...Gradkowski of Toledo and Williams of Memphis. Now go ahead fire away about the New Orleans Bowl.

StatFox Doug says:
We'll come back to that Gradkowski & Williams thought. Arkansas State backed into this game plain and simple. Just before mid-season we had discussed that the Indians looked to be the class of the SBC. Strong running game, adequate Sun Belt quality defense. Then they go out and score 29 points in four games while dropping 5 of 6 against the spread. The Sun Belt was worse than usual this year and this might be the worst bowl team in several years. ASU runs the ball for 200 YPG, however if Southern Miss brings emotion, and I mean any, they win 38-13.

StatFox Steve says:
I will say this: oddsmakers certainly have made up for the massive mistake line offered in last year's Southern Miss win over North Texas in this same bowl as 6-point chalk. I personally believe 17 points is a lot here for a team that scores just 29 PPG and was unusually suspect on defense. I frankly don't think the motivation this year matches last either. Southern Miss was supposed to cruise to the Conf-USA title game and came up short. Last year they were disrespected. This year I feel they are being given too much. I'm leaning towards ASU at this point.

StatFox Doug says:
OK. Don't you have to consider that Arky State played the easiest schedule of all the bowl teams? I actually would love to see a competitive game from a viewing perspective, but if the Golden Eagles run for better then 100 yards, which they should against weak ASU defense, that opens up the passing game. Maybe close for a half, then KABOOM, off fly the Eagles.

StatFox Steve says:
Don't underestimate the heart of a champion...hah! Remember ASU is the conference champ in this game! I also point to the record of double-digit favorites recently in bowl games: 43% ATS since '92. I imagine those playing before January 1 are much worse as they are less deserving of such respect. In the end, we'll just agree to disagree here. How about the GMAC bowl, UTEP & Toledo?
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Old 12-16-2005, 02:19 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Neither team comes in on a roll. UTEP blew a chance to host the C-USA championship with two season ending losses, and Toledo was blown out at home by Northern Illinois, thus ending its chance to play in MAC title game. You mentioned Bruce Gradkowski, I think he's a nice college QB in a conference that suits his talents. Myself, I like Jordan Palmer of the Miners better, as long as he doesn't throw five picks again.

StatFox Steve says:
I mentioned Gradkowski because he has put up some pretty special numbers in three years for Toledo and this will be his last game. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go out with a bang. With that said, I also am a Palmer fan, it's just not "his time" yet. Next year on that! In general I look at this game as an important one for the MAC. They really got disrespected in terms of bowl bids next to Conf-USA and I think Toledo will be playing for the likes of Miami Ohio & Bowling Green here.

StatFox Doug says:
What the heck are you saying? Do you need some MAC pompons and a jumpsuit? The reason MAC teams don't get invited to more bowls has nothing to do with the quality of the teams, they simply have too small a fan base to travel long distances. I already know you're going to bring up Central Florida in Hawaii, but check out the rest of the teams, bowls are played in locales for fan friendly use. Colorado State will travel to San Diego, far better for the Poinsettia Bowl than a more deserving Northern Illinois team. As far as the GMAC, I'd lean with Toledo because of defense and UTEP's inability to not force turnovers.

StatFox Steve says:
Are you trying to tell me that folks from Memphis are lining up in droves to get to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl?? That's funny, like a clown! The main reason I would back the Rockets in this one as well though would be that they are better balanced on both sides of the ball. BTW...Conf-USA is 1-5 SU & ATS in this bowl.

StatFox Doug says:
The people from Memphis wouldn't be there in droves at the Liberty Bowl if Elvis was the halftime entertainment. Come on Steve, these minor bowls are set-up for one team or the other and hope they can draw a good crowd. It's on to Vegas baby, for the battle of the Mormons against the smart guys from Cal...

StatFox Steve says:
Sin City is no place for the Mormons! It could be proven big time come the 22nd. This is a statistical and athleticism mismatch. Of course, stranger things have happened and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Coach Bronco's team is much better prepared than the Cali party boys.

StatFox Doug says:
I would really like to pick BYU here. The Cougars DB's couldn't cover me in shoulder pads and a helmet. Even as they came down the stretch playing high scoring BYU football, the opposition was putting up big passing numbers. BYU has had trouble stopping teams with good rushing attacks. Say hello to Marshawn Lynch. I like the OVER 61 myself.

StatFox Steve says:
That might be a nice look but this game has had a history of UNDERs, even last year with the expected high output of UCLA & Wyoming...I see this as a game of Cal needing to offset the momentum that BYU will bring in as the Cougars will probably be hungry, playing in a bowl game for the first time since '01. If Cal gets down to business, it could win big. Let's move on, how 'bout the other game that same night: Navy & Colorado State.
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Old 12-16-2005, 02:21 PM   #4 (permalink)
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This is one of the bowls that detractors may have a point. Did you realize this is one of two bowls that is being played in the same stadium? Navy is always going to be well disciplined and run and run and run some more. The Midshipmen have the nation's top rushing attack and we watched our pal StatFox Dave tear up a ticket in Vegas betting on Colo. State against a strong rushing team like Minnesota. Colorado State can throw, but will a 6-5 Rams team be excited to be in the Poinsettia Bowl? Not likely. Does every winning player and coach get to take a poinsettia plant home for the holidays? Give the points and take Navy to set sail.

StatFox Steve says:
Regarding the running game, I have to agree. I don't think there's a matchup that Sonny Lubick wanted less for his team than this one with Navy. The Rams yielded 201 YPG and 4.8 YPR this season. In fact, if Lubick's watching the game film of Army vs. Navy, it is probably in horror, as Navy piled up 490 yards on the ground. On top of that, the Middies gain an impressive 9.2 yards per pass on the season as well!

StatFox Doug says:
Shall we head down to Forth Worth for the Houston/Kansas contest? Steve, be my guest for this classic match-up.

StatFox Steve says:
Oooooh...a real doozy. A pair of 6-5 teams that had to rally for wins in their last games to EARN this spot! Just not sure here. If one early game stumps me, it's this one. In one sense, I look at Kansas' stellar run "D" and think "How's Houston going to run the ball?". Then I counter with "Just put the ball in the air with Kolb". On the opposite side, the Jayhawks scored just 11.7 PPG on the road??

StatFox Doug says:
I concur, it seems nearly impossible to a side or a total. One possible good thing from this game is written in the Bowl Preview section, Kansas has not won a bowl game since 1995 and Houston since 1980. Something has to give. Unless you are a graduate from either school, my advice is to PASS. Now forget about the 13 NFL games on Christmas Eve, the Hawaii Bowl is the reason to forget about opening any presents early. Nevada vs. Central Florida

StatFox Steve says:
I want to stay on Kansas-Houston for a second. Does the fact that this game is played in Texas (practically halfway between Houston & Kansas) benefit the Cougars or Jayhawks? Which team will travel better? There are just a lot of debatable things going on in this one. I actually humbly ask anyone in our reading audience to submit any concrete edges they see here...PLEASE, because I know I'll bet it anyway! Now go ahead, you fire up the thriller in Honolulu...

StatFox Doug says:
I'll start with, I believe this will be the most enjoyable game to watch of the ones played before Christmas. Nevada played well down the stretch and beat Fresno State to tie for WAC title. Of course Central Florida had tremendous turnaround and played for C-USA title game. Nevada averaged 238 YPG the last four games and Central Florida has a young defense that is prone to making mistakes against good offenses. The Golden Knights allowed 207 YPG on the ground the last three games. Both teams are excited to go bowling, I'll lean with Nevada and consider the OVER as the game approaches.

StatFox Steve says:
I agree that this game will be one of the more intriguing of the bowl season. Don't forget, Nevada has made a decent turnaround as well. One thing I look at here is that both teams can both run and pass and neither defense has been particularly good stopping opponents. I believe offensive balance on both teams leads to OVERs, particularly when the defenses are suspect. Thoughts?

StatFox Doug says:
Agreed, unfortunately the line makers have already taken that into account. This game could go OVER, since neither team makes many turnovers. The feeling I have is one team will have to score 40 points for that to occur. Something like 40-27.

StatFox Steve says:
I think this game has the potential to be LOADED with big plays. I think it could go well into the 70's myself. On a seperate note, Nevada was 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Looking at Nevada and the OVER here I think!

StatFox Doug says:
All in all, a few minors disagreements, but nothing too bad today. Of course, this is only the games before Christmas. Next week's Scuffle will include the bowls between Dec. 26 and Dec. 30. I KNOW we will have differing opinions on many of these.
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Old 12-16-2005, 02:21 PM   #5 (permalink)
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The rest of the article isnt worth anyone's time, but there is a sweet Bowl Preview Section.
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Old 12-16-2005, 02:28 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Awesome thanks for the great info!!


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Old 12-16-2005, 04:32 PM   #7 (permalink)
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its all 'bout the bottom line...

making better selections for this action packed 2 weeks.

It's going to be tough
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