 Saturday NCAA Football Selection
Saturday NCAA Football Selection
Duke +25½ over VIRGINIA
In the ACC opener for the Cavaliers, the #23 team in the nation will host the Blue Devils. Following a close, tough loss at East Carolina to start the season, Duke was crushed, 45-0, at home by Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils needed a shot of confidence after those two defeats. That is exactly what they got when VMI came to Durham last weekend, as Duke rolled to a 40-14 victory. Virginia enters this game with a 2-0 record, although the two victories were both fairly close against mediocre opposition. After opening the season with a lackluster 31-19 home decision over Western Michigan, the Cavs posted a 27-24 victory at Syracuse last weekend, a winning PRO INFO SPORTS 4 STAR SELECTION.
Duke wanted to establish a strong rushing attack and they did just that last weekend with Justin Boyle and Cedric Dargan. The Blue Devils ran the ball 45 times on the day and finished with 235 yards. Both of VMI's touchdowns against Duke last weekend came when the game was already well out of reach. The Blue Devils have come up with eight sacks and six takeaways, fairly solid three-game totals.
Virginia quarterback Marques Hagans entered this season with the reputation of being one of the ACC's top quarterbacks, but he certainly didn't play up to his billing against Syracuse, as he was picked off three times in the tilt. The Cavaliers did not come up with a single takeaway in the victory over Syracuse, but they did smother the Orange's rushing attack.
We expect both teams to continue their current drift, with Duke recovering from their slow start, and Virginia still struggling against average or worse opponents. "I thought our football team responded," Duke coach Ted Roof said of his Devils. "I thought they played hard and played well." The team held a players-only meeting after being shut out by Virginia Tech. We often see teams respond with stronger play for at least a few weeks after such a pow-wow, and we have witnessed this with Duke on almost an annual basis.
While the public continues to back Virginia, its no surprise to us that they are not dominating games. Its no surprise to their coach, either. "Last year, we had a veteran team with a lot of proven players and we won by some substantial margins early," Al Groh said. "What that proved was that those veteran players were ready to play very well. So, there was a good message in there even though the scores weren't as tight as some of the games. This year, it's a little bit different circumstance. We are learning in each game how certain players are going to respond in different competitive situations. So, it probably has been good for us in these two games. We're still obviously a progressing team."
Besides covering 8 of their past 11 meetings with Virginia, we note that the Blue Devils have been red hot spread-wise as big underdog away from home. As a road pup of 15+ points, they are an amazing 10-0 ATS. We look for them to hang around and give the Cavaliers a full day of football here. While Virginia is likely to pull out the victory, it should be Duke getting a comfortable ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA 24 DUKE 13 | 
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