Saturday Early games in College Football

[JT Sneaks]

Virginia at Syracuse, 12:00 EST ESPN
Virginia - 6-16 ATS away off a bye week
Syracuse - 15-3 ATS at home off a home win

Not playing this game because Syracuse is not the same team of old and has Florida St on deck after this. They are always deadly in the dome though as they are 19-2 ATS in 2nd of back to back home games and a very nice 14-2-2ATS in home games out of conference. This should be a high scoring game and I am not sure if the orange can keep up. PASS: Lean: Over


Oregon State at Louisville, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Oregon State - 6-16 ATS away in September
Louisville - 11-3 Over off a straight up win

This is another one that ahs high flying scoring written all over it, but who is Louisville to drop this many points when they had issues with Kentucky? Louisville looked confused and disoriented on defense and that will happen again against the Oregon tough offense led by stellar wide out, Mike Hass. The Cardinals are just 2-8 ATS in home openers and should not be laying this many points. PLAY: Oregon St. +14


Eastern Michigan at Michigan, 12:00 EST ESPNU
Eastern Michigan - 4-14 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Michigan - 6-2 ATS vs. MAC opponents

I am passing on this game but if Michigan beat the Irish I would have been all over Eastern Michigan because this is a sandwich game for the wolverines as they just played Notre Dame and have the badgers after this game. With the tough loss last week the Wolverines should be focused and beat up on this hapless club I just can’t bring myself to give anyone 30 points! It also fits a quality system against Eastern Michigan. 1 - Play AGAINST any ROAD team that WON its last two games ATS (184-141-14, 56.6%) Michigan is 6-1 ATS against the MAC and if anything would take them in the big house. PASS: Lean: Michigan -29.5


West Virginia at Maryland, 12:00 EST
West Virginia - 4-15 ATS vs. ACC opponents
Maryland - 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

A tough late loss against Clemson cost me last week so I walk into this one with a big caution sign. West Virginia has a ugly record against the ACC and lost to Maryland but it is interesting to note that WV is 36-4 ATS when they win SU with revenge. Maryland catches WV in the middle of a ACC divisional sandwich and is just 1-4 ATS as non conference favorites. I am staying away from this one. PASS: Lean WV +3.5

SMU at Texas A&M, 12:30 EST FSN
SMU - 7-1 ATS off an Under
Texas A&M - 3-14 ATS off an ATS loss

Classic let down spot for SMU who clobbered TCU as big dogs last week. The question is can A&M roll it up on them enough to cover the 28 points? I think they can but I am still going to pass here. Texas A&M has been dying to get on the field after losing a tough one to Clemson and they will take it on SMU. The Aggies are 11-2 ATS at home as double digit favorites with rest and should roll SMU. I am not playing it because of the big number alone. PASS: Leans Aggies -27.5

Mississippi at Vanderbilt, 12:30 EST
Mississippi - 8-1 Under as an underdog
Vanderbilt - 11-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less

I like this play and the solid QB that Vandy has enough to take a shot here. Cutler will get a solid outing in Vandy’s home opener and look for Ole Miss to be sluggish after the bye and playing in the second road game this year. PLAY: Vandy -3

Toledo at Temple, 1:00 EST
Toledo - 7-1 ATS off a win by 21+ points
Temple - 1-9 ATS vs. MAC opponents

This play is a pass for me mainly because I like Temple and I don’t trust them even if they were getting a ton of points. This does a fit another system this week as well. 2 - Play ON any HOME UNDERDOG that LOST its last two games ATS (75-58-4, 56.4%). PASS: Lean Temple +28



JT Sneaks

[JT Sneaks]

Okay I am going to quickly run down some other selections for Saturday and some high profile games as well:


Wake Forest -13.5

I’ll keep this below 14 if I have to buy it, ECU is one of the worst teams in the country and Wake should dominate and keep this at 20 points or more. Wake not the best home chalk but ECU a miserable 2.9 yards per rush.

Boston College +1

A homer play for me no doubt but the Eagles are a good team and have experience on offense. Game day is in town and this game is on prime time and the Eagles will pull off the upset. If you look at just pure numbers the Eagles are actually better in every category.

Michigan St. +6.5
May buy this to 7 but I don’t think I will need it. All is well at Notre Dame and thought of BCS bowl games are dancing in their head. This is a perfect timee to be upset by the Spartans. The home field edge won’t be intimidating because the Spartans have made a habit of winning in south bend. This will be an old fashioned shootout with a FG winning it in the end.

UCLA -6

Oklahoma looks like a no brainer in this spot but the offense is horrible for this club. UCLA has no problem scoring and should wear down a good OU defense. Turnover ratio -2 for OU and +4 for UCLA made my eyes light up. Considering how good OU has been in recent years I find it pretty amazing that they are just 7-21 ATS in back to back non conference games.

Bama @ SC

I am passing on this one but if I had to take it I would lean to the home team.

Indiana -2 ****BEST BET****

This Hoosier team is not your ordinary push over that we are used to seeing in the Big Ten. They will surprise some folks this year and have a shot of going to a bowl game, albeit the weed eater bowl. This game will be won in the air as both teams will air it out early and often. The new coach has had a very positive effect on this club.

UNC +3.5 & +145 ****UPSET SPECIAL****

Classic look ahead for the Badgers who have a big game with Michigan on deck after this one. The Tar heels a nice 6-0 in the last six ATS after a SU loss. Also a nice little system fits in here quite nicely, 2 - Play ON any HOME UNDERDOG that LOST its last two games ATS (75-58-4, 56.4%). The Heels win this one outright.

Clemson +7.5

Okay most of you are thinking this could be a stretch but Clemson is a tough place to play and this place will be loud! Miami’s rushing game looked non existent in the first game out and Clemson has a +4 edge in turnover ratio. Hard to see Miami starting the year off at 0-2, but it could happen here if they are not careful.

Tenn @ Florida

Passing here but I learned along time ago what Urban Meyer can do to a team. The numbers I have lean to Florida, but I’ll pass here.


JT Sneaks