| NCAA Football Betting Discuss College Handicapping, betting, get free picks and post your plays on College Football. |
08-31-2005, 10:56 AM
|
#1 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Six Game Preview and College News Market `overreacts` to Baylor illness
Josh Hansen
Strep throat may have sportsbooks coughing up the dough when the Baylor Bears head into Southern Methodist Saturday night.
Last week, 17 members of the Bears missed practice with strep throat, including four projected starters and seven players vying for No .2 spots in their respective positions. The team dressed in half-pads for the two-hour workout, while coach Guy Morriss sent a number of players home to minimize the risk of infection to the rest of the team.
“Strep throat got us,” said Morriss.
“It takes about 48 hours to run its course, so we’ll probably have a few more missing tomorrow, too,” he added. “But, better this week than next. It’s just something you have to deal with.”
The news spread quickly to oddsmakers, who promptly dropped the Bears down from 4-point to 2 1/2–point favorites for Saturday’s season opener.
“That is a serious move,” says Expert David Malinsky. “Crossing over the key numbers of “4” and “3”, and yet what caused the move? Four starters and seven reserves missing two days of practice a full week before this game is going to be played.
"That information might have been worth the move of a half point, or a full point, but nowhere near how the market has reacted.”
It may stay there too. According to one linesmaker, there’s been little action on Baylor and until there is, bettors should expect the line to stick.
“I don’t really see us going back unless we take some serious action on Baylor,” says J.J., who wished not to use his last name.
“We had one guy take S. Methodist at +4, and another guy take it at + 2 ½. Obviously they probably figured ’17 guys out with strep throat’ but that strep throat can heal up quick. We`ll probably end up at [Baylor] – 3.”
By the sounds of things, it’s already healed.
“Practice tonight was excellent,” said Morriss Monday. “They were really flying around and the enthusiasm was good. They seemed really rested and mentally fresh. We just have to carry that into the game Saturday (at SMU).”
After finishing last in the Big 12 South in 2004, Baylor hopes to use SMU as a springboard into this season. The Bears finished with just three wins last year but have defeated the Mustangs in eight straight contests, covering four times in the process.
“The reports we got from the Monday practices were pretty good, so this could possibly have us looking to play on Baylor, instead of against,” adds Malinsky.
Oddsmakers have the total at 51 1/2.
************************************************** *******
College Football Preview: Six must-see games
Brian Covert Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles
Line: Miami is a 3–point favorite for Monday’s game
Total: The total is set at 39-points
What a bizarre summer for the Florida State football program.
A starting quarterback diagnosed with Lyme disease, freshmen arrested, starters injured or deemed academically ineligible, you would think all these off-field headaches might make 76-year-old Bobby Bowden want to give up coaching.
But the NCAA’s all-time wins leaders says otherwise.
“People have said to me, `Boy, I bet this summer has been murder. How could you stand this summer?` Well, it happens all the time,” said Bowden. “This is a sign of the times.”
Bowden just needs to look to his running game and defense to start feeling better about things. Returnees Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker, who ran for 1,838 yards and 11 touchdowns last season combined, lead the offense while linebackers Ernie Sims, A.J. Nicholson and Buster Davis return to a defense that allowed less than 14 points last season.
The Miami Hurricanes are led by a defense that returns nine starters and should be very strong. But their Achilles Heel may be their offense which lost seven starters including their top rusher and receiver from last season. They also lost quarterback Brock Berlin who will be replaced by the inexperienced Kyle Wright.
That said, Miami beat Florida State twice last year and has not lost to their interstate rivals since 1999. Texas A & M Aggies at Clemson Tigers
Line: Clemson is a 1 ½-point underdog at home.
Total: The total is set at 51-points
The Clemson Tigers were a disappointment a year ago. Preseason expectations were met with a 6-5 season that triggered a shuffle in the coach’s office with new offensive coordinator Rob Spence and defensive coordinator Vic Kroening joining head coach Terry Bowden in leading the Tigers.
Spence may have the biggest task, needing to revamp an offense that finished 110th in the country last season.
“There are some different thoughts and ideas,” said Spence who was the offensive coordinator at the University of Toledo the last four years. “Obviously, you`re going to see some things we`ve done in the past. There`s no question about that. But it`s not about schematics. It`s about effort and attitude and people playing together and coaching as one.”
The Tigers will unveil their new offense when they host Texas A & M Saturday. The Aggies will hope to avoid a season starting loss like last year’s 41-21 loss at Utah as 8 ½-point underdogs.
The Aggies are led by dual-threat quarterback Reggie McNeal and running back Courtney Lewis. McNeal had over 3,500 total yards last year while Lewis ran for 742 yards and nine touchdowns despite battling injuries all season.
A & M is 3-0 all-time versus Clemson including a 27-6 win as a 1 1/2-point underdog last season in Texas. Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Line: The Hokies are 3-point favorites for the season opener
Total: The total is set at 42 ½-points
Marcus Vick’s legal troubles have been well publicized. This Sunday the younger brother of Atlanta`s Michael will try to give people something else to talk about when he takes to the field as Virgina Tech’s starting quarterback at North Carolina State.
Vick will not have to go at it alone. The defending ACC champion Hokies have experience and depth at all skill positions. As well their defense that gave up only 268 total yards per game last season returns ACC Defensive Freshman of the Year Vince Hall and junior cornerback Jimmy Williams who many say is the best cornerback prospect in all of college football.
They open against the Wolfpack, who handed the Hokies their only loss in the ACC last season, 17-16 as 7-point underdogs last Sept. 25. West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orangemen
Line: Syracuse is a 1 ½-point favorite for Sunday’s game
Total: Oddsmakers have set the total at 44 ½-points
The Syracuse Orangemen and the West Virginia Mountaineers will hit the ground running Sunday when they meet in a key Big East contest in their season opener at the Carrier Dome. This has West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez concerned.
”Oh, I`d rather play non-conference games first, no question,” Rodriguez told reporters Monday. “Especially with a young team [like this]. I`d be lying if I didn`t say I`d rather be opening up with somebody easy at home.”
The Mountaineers lost eight offensive and six defensive starters from last year’s squad that went 8-4.
The big question is at quarterback where redshirt freshman Pat White has reportedly won the starter’s job from sophomore Adam Bednarik. West Virginia does return starting tailback Jason Colson who ran for 113 yards in the Mountaineers 27-6 win over the Orangemen as 15-point favorites at home last October. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Auburn Tigers
Line: Oddsmakers have made Auburn listed as 7-point favorites against Georgia Tech
Total: The total is set at 38-points
Questions abound in Auburn this year after losing quarterback Jason Campbell along with running backs “Cadillac” Williams and Ronnie Brown to the pros. Will new quarterback Brandon Cox be able to get the ball to some of the SEC’s most underrated receivers in Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu and Anthony Mix? Will the triumvirate of Tre Smith, Kenny Irons and Carl Stewart be able to fill the shoes of Williams and Brown in the backfield.
Saturday’s game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and their tough defense may go a long way to answering some of those questions. Georgia Tech returns nine starters to a unit that gave up less than 20 points a game last season.
These two programs, despite being close geographically, have met only three times in the last 20 years. Georgia Tech won their most recent meeting 17-3 as a 7 ½-point underdog in Atlanta in early 2003. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers
Line: Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite for their season opener
Total: Oddsmakers have the total set at 52 ½-points
Charlie Weis’ job will be to inject new life into an offense that has not ranked higher in the nation than 76th over the last five years. The former New England offensive coordinator will start by simply trying to make the game more fun.
“Football, as tough as it is, as much work as it is, you`re supposed to have some fun,” Weis said.
The first place to start will be with the running game which set a school record for futility by averaging only 127.4 yards per game last season. However Weis does have a potential stud running back in Darius Walker to work with. Walker set a Notre Dame freshman record with 786 rushing yards last season. The entire receiving corps returns along with a five-man starting offensive line that combined for 59 starts last season.
They travel to Pittsburgh to take on NFL-refugee Dave Wannstedt and the Pittsburgh Panthers. Pittsburgh returns 16 starters including dynamic quarterback Tyler Palko who led the Panthers to an 8-4 record and a share of the Big East title last season.
Palko threw for five touchdowns and 334 yards in Pittsburgh’s 41-38 win as an 11-point favorite last November.
JT  Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:14 AM
|
#2 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| -- UConn outscored Buffalo 91-10 in last three series meetings, outgaining Bulls 477-96 last year, as Bulls completed four of 21 passes. Buffalo covered three of last 12 as road underdog. Huskies are 6-3-1 as home favorite. Both sides are breaking in new QB's.
-- Oregon covered 11 of last 12 games on grass, six of last eight as road favorite. Houston just 4-9 as underdog under Briles, 6-9 as home dog since '99. Both sides have lot of starters back, experienced QB's. Houston has four starters back on OL.
-- Eastern Michigan covered three of last 23 non-MAC games; they're 6-10 as road dog since '02. Cincinnati has new QB, but covered five of last six home openers. Lot of chaos in Cincinnati athletics last ten days; coach says the basketball mess won't distract his football players. EMU has senior QB, three OL starters back.
-- Wake Forest is 3-10-1 in last 14 tries as home fave, 4-7-1 in non-conference games; they visit Nebraska next week, but better not look past Vanderbilt squad with first-team SEC QB (34 starts) that had five losses last year, by combined total of just 15 points. 'dores just 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight non-SEC games.
-- Spurrier Era starts in Columbia, where South Carolina faces Central Florida squad they drilled last year, 34-3 (total yardage 530-191), as Knights limped in with 0-11 mark. UCF is 2-8 last ten tries as road dog, but has 16 starters back for Coach O'Leary.
Gamecocks have Georgia next, new starter at QB, and 25 less scholarship players than most SEC teams have. Carolina 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 non-SEC games.
-- Temple covered 11 of last 15 tries as road dog; they have QB with 26 career starts. Arizona State is 14-9 as home fave since '00, and covered nine of last 12 non-Pac 10 home games, but they go to Baton Rouge next, so could looking ahead to LSU. Sun Devils covered nine of last twelve non-league home games.
-- Idaho, Washington State only eight miles apart, but Coogs won last four series meetings by a combined score of 159-29 (40-7 avg.). Wazoo 4-11 as favorite last two years, 3-8 at home; they outgained Vandals 509-276 last year, running ball for 286 yards. Idaho coach is old USC aide, so you know Wazoo will stick it to him, if they can.
-- Tulsa is 6-1 as home dog under Kragthorpe; this is first visit by Big 11 squad to Tulsa in nine years, so big deal for hosts. Minnesota routed Tulsa 49-10 two years ago; they're 9-4 as road fave since '99, 15-9 overall as favorite since '01, 6-2 vs spread in last eight non-league games.
JT  Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:14 AM
|
#3 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Thursday, September 1st
(TC) Buffalo at Connecticut, 7:30 EST
Buffalo - 0-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Connecticut - 6-1 ATS first two weeks of the season
Oregon at Houston, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Oregon - 12-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Houston - 5-1 ATS in weekday games
Eastern Michigan at Cincinnati, 7:00 EST
E Michigan - 2-14 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Cincinnati - 15-3 Under vs. non-conference opponents
(TC) Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 7:00 EST ESPNU
Vanderbilt - 9-3 Under first half of the season
Wake Forest - 1-7 ATS as a favorite
Central Florida at South Carolina, 7:30 EST ESPN
Central Florida - 2-10 ATS in road games
South Carolina - 6-2 Over in home games
Temple at Arizona State, 10:00 EST
Temple - 13-27 ATS in September
Arizona State - 7-2 Over as a favorite
Idaho at Washington State, 10:00 EST
Idaho - 0-5 ATS in their first game
Washington State - 7-3 Under as a favorite
Minnesota at Tulsa, 10:15 EST ESPN2
Minnesota - 8-3 Over on artificial turf
Tulsa - 6-0 ATS as a home underdog
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Friday, September 2nd
Indiana at Central Michigan, 7:30 EST ESPNU
Indiana - 6-1 Under last seven games with a posted total
Central Michigan - 4-12 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Arizona at Utah, 8:00 EST ESPN
Arizona - 2-7 ATS in road games
Utah - 10-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Minnesota at Tulsa
Friday September 1, 10:15 EST
(Matchup)
The Gophers open the 2005 season with a trip to Skelly Stadium in Tulsa to take on the Golden Hurricane. Minnesota hosted Tulsa back in 2003 and it wasn’t really a game as the Gophers buried the Hurricane 49-10 getting the money as 30-point favorites.
Glen Mason enters his ninth year and he has 15 returning starters back from last years 7-5 squad. As usual, Mason’s troops started the season off by blowing out their first five opponents and covering in four of those five. Then they hit the meat of their schedule and lost four of their next five games. They were able to end the season with a victory defeating Alabama 20-16 in the Music City Bowl.
Minnesota loves to run the football and they should be able to grind it out on the ground again this season. With eight returning offense starters, including Laurence Maroney, Minnesota will once again be one of the top rushing teams in the country. Last year they ranked fifth nationally averaging over 250 yards per game.
Here’s a trivia question for you, who is Tulsa’s head coach? You college football experts would know that it’s Steve Kragthorpe. He came to Tulsa in 2003 and took over a team that had won only two games total the past two years. That’s right, 2-21 SU in 2001 and 2002. It wasn’t much better against the number as they covered only five times in 17 lines games.
In 2003, his first season, he made a miraculous turn around. They won eight games for the first time in a long time and were a very impressive 7-4-1 ATS. However, last year they just couldn’t outscore everyone as they did the previous season and ended up 4-8 SU and 4-7 ATS. Their defense couldn’t stop anyone allowing 38 or more points six times.
Tulsa returns half of their team from last year and Kragthorpe is hoping that most of them will be standing after their first two games, this one against the tough Gophers and next week at Oklahoma.
The Sportsbooks opened this game with Minnesota favored by 14-points. The public thinks that the Gophers will run all over Tulsa as they moved the line up to 15.5-points. A high scoring game is expected with a total of 59 points.
Before you make a move on this game you might like to know that Tulsa has covered all six times as home dogs over the past three seasons.
************************************************** ****
Indiana at Central Michigan
Friday September 2nd, 7:30 EST
(Matchup)
There’s a new man in Bloomington this season as Terry Hoeppner takes over the reins of the Hoosiers. Hoeppner came over from Miami Ohio where he was on the Red Hawks staff for 19 years. Hoeppner received a lot of credit for mentoring Pittsburgh Steelers QB Big Ben Roethlisberger.
When we last checked Indiana’s roster we didn’t see any QB’s that resembled Big Ben. In fact, we’re not sure at this time who the starter will be, but Hoeppner has his hands full taking over a team that’s won only eight times in the last three years.
At least he’ll get a chance to notch a couple of wins before starting the rugged Big Ten schedule, opening with a weak Central Michigan team and then facing Nicholls State. Last year Indiana was favored in only game all season and that was against these Chippewas who they crushed 41-10.
It’s been a long time since Central Michigan has posted a winning season. You have to go all the way back to the 1998 season when they finished one game over .500 at 6-5. Central Michigan starts out the season by playing two of their first three games against Big Ten teams (at Penn State in week 3) and going to face a tough Miami Ohio team next week.
One bit of good news for CMU is that they return seven offensive starters including QB Kent Smith. However, if they are going to improve they need to improve a defense that ranked 104th in the country in points allowed surrendering 34.4 tallies per game.
The betting public believes that the lines makers made a mistake when they opened Indiana as an 11-point road favorite. They came in quickly on Central pushing the game down to an 8-point number
*************************************************
JT Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:16 AM
|
#4 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Wise guys move Cincy line
Brian Covert
Thursday`s Cincinnati Bearcats-Eastern Michigan Eagles line has fluctuated more in the last month than a college undergrad`s blood-alcohol level on a Saturday night.
The line opened with Cincy set as a 12 ½-point fave on Aug. 5 then bottomed out at –8 1/2-points this past Tuesday before spiking up to -10-points two hours later.
So why all the movement?
“Player news and wise guys,” says a oddsmaker. “Vegas knows all this information before we do and sometimes these handicappers have an insider who lets them know of any information. These guys will then call us and put down $5,000 or $10,000 and they got us.”
“Then when we hear the information and we’ll then move the line a ½-point depending on the player.”
The news drawing the most attention for Thursday’s game was Cincinnati’s announcement that Dustin Grutza would be their starting quarterback. The 6–foot-3 redshirt freshman won the job after going 12-for-19 for 115 yards and two touchdowns in a scrimmage back in mid-August. Grutza also ran for another 1-yard score.
“He makes good decisions. He does a lot of things well. I like his presence on the field,” said Cincy head coach Mark Dantonio after the workout.
However, bettors didn’t seem to agree with Dantonio’s evaluation; the line dropped 2 ½-points immediately.
The line continued to drop until it hit an –8 1/2-point low Monday. Then news that senior defensive tackle Adam Roberts was upgraded from questionable to probable had Cincinnati backers pushing the line back up to its current resting point, –10, two hours later.
“These wise guys who try to catch us on the first line move, it’s still a crapshoot. It’s sports and nothing is ever certain,” says the oddsmaker.
The books have Thursday`s total pegged at 60 1/2 points.
JT  |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:17 AM
|
#5 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Minnesota intrigued by Tulsa defense
Associated Press
TULSA, Okla. -- Tailback Laurence Maroney can`t quite believe Tulsa will stay with a defense designed to stop the pass when his Minnesota Gophers come to town on Thursday with one of the nation`s best running games.
"Three down linemen and three stack linebackers, that`s six in the box," Maroney said. "They better have a little bit more than that."
Maroney said he realizes that Tulsa`s 3-3-5 base defense also includes a rover who could be blitzing and that the Golden Hurricane often send a four-man rush despite the defensive alignment, but he was still surprised there were only three defensive linemen, and not four.
"Crazy, isn`t it?" he said.
Maroney rushed for 1,348 yards last season while splitting time with another 1,000-yard back, Marion Barber III. But Barber moved on to the NFL and left Maroney as the featured back for Minnesota. Tulsa coach Steve Kragthorpe has taken note.
"He`s as good as I`ve seen on film and there is no question he is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and well-deserving of that preseason recognition," Kragthorpe said.
Oddsmakers list the Gophers as 15-point favorites for Thursday`s game. The total has been set at 65.
Maroney is the first in a line of tests that Tulsa will face at tailback early in the season. In Week 2, the Golden Hurricane take on Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson. The following week, it`s North Texas` Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas -- the past two national rushing champions. After that, Heisman dark horse Memphis` DeAngelo Williams comes to town.
But before Tulsa can begin worrying about those other backs, they have to deal with Maroney and his sturdy offensive line featuring center Greg Eslinger and guard Mark Setterstrom.
"Let me tell you, this guy can play," Kragthorpe said. "He can run outside the tackles. He can run inside the tackles. Any time he touches the ball, he`s got a chance. He`s a threat to take it the distance.
"It`s certainly going to be a challenge for our defense."
Minnesota quarterback Bryan Cupito said the Gophers will be ready no matter what defense Tulsa uses.
"They run a lot of three down linemen, which I don`t know if they`ll do that against us with our run game," Cupito said. "We`ve been kind of working on that, they might change it up for the run. If they stay with the three down linemen, we`ll run the ball. If not, we`ll throw it. But either way, we`ll be successful."
Barber had three first-half touchdown runs and the Gophers racked up 254 rushing yards in a 49-10 win against Tulsa in Kragthorpe`s head coaching debut two years ago. But instead of focusing on that win, Minnesota coaches have been telling players about Tulsa`s ability to pull an upset.
The Golden Hurricane beat 24th-ranked UTEP to finish 4-8 last season. Tulsa`s 1996 upset of 19th-ranked Iowa has been a routine topic of conversation.
"Every other day, maybe everyday," Maroney said, shaking his head. "(The coaches) talk about how a Big Ten team went down there and they lost. I said, `Well, it won`t be this time. I don`t want to be the next team to go down there and get blown out.` They talk about it a lot."
JT  Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:19 AM
|
#6 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Game of the day: Central Florida at South Carolina
Jeff Mason
University of Central Florida Golden Knights at University of South Carolina Gamecocks
The line: USC is a 21-point favorite
The total: The total is set at 49 points.
Spurrier, Spurrier, Spurrier.
Is there really anything else to talk about?
You don’t have to love Steve Spurrier. Heck, you don’t even have to like him. But when the Ol’ Ball Coach dons his trademark visor to traipse the sidelines once again, you have to take notice.
The media certainly did.
Spurrier’s return prompted a game originally scheduled for Saturday afternoon to be moved to Thursday night. Why? It certainly wasn’t so George O’Leary could update his resume. It was so America could watch Spurrier in primetime.
They will certainly get that chance when the South Carolina Gamecocks face O’Leary’s Central Florida Golden Knights. UCF finished with a 0-11 record last season, 3-8 against the spread.
Oh yeah, want another example of the Spurrier allure? The University of Central Florida is coming to primetime.
This is a team that was ranked No. 117 in the polls last year. Out of 117 teams.
UCF used to dog status
Not that the Gamecocks were much better, at least against the spread. Under Lou Holtz, South Carolina went 6-5 last season, but managed only 4-7 ATS, finishing a consensus 56th in the country.
Another staggering number in this game is the point spread- the Gamecocks are currently installed as 21-point favorites. This isn’t anything new to Central Florida. The Golden Knights were asked to cover four games over 20 points last season, but only covered their largest as 26-point underdogs in a 20-3 loss to Marshall.
If last year is any indication, South Carolina may have to shut them out to cover the spread. The ‘Cocks averaged just 22.1 points per game last year, ranking them 86th in the nation.
Return of the Fun n’ Gun
Futility on offense is why Spurrier is now sporting the Garnet and Black. His Fun n’ Gun offense put up over 500 points in four straight years at Florida. But that was with his players.
Spurrier’s new team is built for a smash-mouth football. All three of his quarterbacks cut their teeth in running offenses, even in high school. He is also without would-be senior Troy Williamson. The one explosive player on the Gamecocks last season was drafted seventh overall by the Minnesota Vikings.
With no offensive talent in sight, will Spurrier try to fit a square peg into a round hole?
"We are trying to put in the same plan, maybe even a little better plan, than what we put in at Florida,” Spurrier told The Gamecock. “I`ll call the plays and run the offense."
Yup.
Blake Mitchell has been anointed to showcase the Fun n’ Gun. In five games last year, the sophomore quarterback completed 9-of-22 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown.
"We felt like Blake is much better prepared mentally, physically," Spurrier told the Carolina State. "He`s had an excellent summer working out. It`s clear to all of us here that he`s our best guy to go out there."
Same old Golden Knights
Central Florida counters with – well – how can this be put nicely?
A team didn’t win a game last year has lost the school’s career rushing leader (graduation) and this year’s quarterback of choice (Kyle Israel, out with a fractured right leg). They also lost 78 of the 113 catches the team made last year when Luther Huggins (42 receptions) and Tavaris Capers (36) graduated.
Steve Moffat will be at the helm by default. O’Leary wasn’t impressed with his presence as starter last year and played Kyle Isreal for the last three games of the season.
The Knight’s defense was equally poor last season, allowing opponents to convert 40 percent of third downs and 86 percent of fourth downs.
The defense returns seven starters which O’Leary claims is “A good thing and a bad thing.” He adds, “There are some serious issues to be fixed here.”
JT  Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:21 AM
|
#7 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Capper: Huge spreads warrant little attention
Brian Covert
Is this sports betting or chemistry class?
With spreads for some of college football’s season openers resembling the atomic number of zinc rather than a legitimate betting line, some bettors might think these games warrant some cash on the underdog.
But Dave Malinsky believes bettors should think otherwise before putting money on the Idaho’s and Florida Central’s of the world in Week 1 of the college season.
“These games are just too difficult to handicap,” says Malinsky. “Sometimes you’re better off to walk away”
Malinsky highlights Thursday`s Temple at Arizona State as a 32-point underdog as a prime example of why bettors would be better off staying away from these massive spreads.
“It all depends on what the coaches are thinking,” Malinsky says, “and sometimes you don’t know that until the second quarter. Arizona State has a big game against LSU next week and if they come out and look good their first couple of drives [head coach] Dick Koetter might pull his starters and go with the second-stringers for the rest of the game. "If they don’t maybe he’ll keep them out there and hammer through their struggles. The same might be true for Temple’s Bobby Wallace who might save his players from taking a beating by a far superior football team, saving them for games they may actually have a chance to win.”
“You just never know.”
JT  Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:22 AM
|
#8 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Keller ready to let fly in 20th-ranked Sun Devils` opener
Associated Press
TEMPE, Ariz. -- Sam Keller already has won over his Arizona State teammates. His MVP performance in last year`s Sun Bowl took care of that, providing a jump-start for Keller as successor to record-smashing passer Andrew Walter.
So expect the 6-foot-4 junior from Danville, Calif., to let it fly when the 20th-ranked Sun Devils unleash their passing game against the inexperienced secondary of Temple in their season opener Thursday night.
Oddsmakers list the Sun Devils as 31-point favorites and have set the total at 58.
``I`ve been waiting to step up into this role my entire life, and it`s here,`` Keller said.
For two years, Keller served as backup while Walter broke school and Pac-10 passing records. When Walter went down with a shoulder injury in last year`s regular-season finale against Arizona, Keller got his first collegiate start against Purdue in the Sun Bowl.
He completed 25 of 45 passes for 370 yards and three touchdowns, with no interceptions, and directed the late scoring drive that gave Arizona State a 27-23 victory.
``I would have been in good shape regardless,`` Keller said. ``But I`ll tell you what, that Sun Bowl did a lot for my confidence and did a lot for the players` confidence. It really allowed them to understand that I can come in and say `It`s my team now.```
Coach Dirk Koetter said Keller has not had a bad practice in training camp.
``Sammy`s going to tear it up,`` Koetter said. ``I`m telling you right now, Sam Keller is going to play well.``
Keller has an experienced group of receivers led by senior Derek Hagan, who needs eight catches, 265 yards receiving and six touchdown catches to break school records in all three categories.
Temple coach Bobby Wallace must bring his team across the country to play in extreme heat against a nationally ranked opponent. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be about 100 degrees. It`s not exactly an ideal opener for a struggling program that has dropped from the Big East to the more appropriate Mid-American Conference.
``This game was scheduled I think eight years ago,`` Wallace said. ``I don`t think it would be my choice, but a lot of games on our schedule wouldn`t be my choice.``
Temple`s 4-2-5 scheme is designed to stop the run first and force the pass.
``So a passing team definitely gives us more problems,`` Wallace said. ``It`s going to be very difficult because they have so many people who are very skilled at catching the ball and doing something with it.``
The Owls` best shot is to put pressure on Keller.
``We do have four seniors up front that I think are one of the strengths on our team,`` Wallace said.
Arizona State has found it difficult to prepare for Temple`s offense because the system has been overhauled by new coordinator Willie Slater. Fifth-year senior quarterback Mike McGann is No. 2 for the Owls` in career yards passing (4,498). The team has two experienced running backs in Tim Brown and Omar Ferguson.
McGann - who played high school football just a few blocks from Temple`s campus - has a strong arm, but lacks mobility and could be susceptible to pressure from the ASU pass rush.
The Owls enter the game on a 21-game losing streak against ranked opponents and have lost eight straight on the road.
Wallace has found the going tough in trying to develop a competitive team over eight seasons. He sees progress, especially in development of facilities to lure better players and the move from a commuter school to one where students live on campus. The move to the MAC should help, too.
But it`s still Temple, where Wallace is 19-60 in seven seasons. The Owls were 2-9 last year.
``Until Temple has a winning season and has some success there`s always going to be a stigma that you can`t win here,`` Wallace said. ``Things have changed so much that it`s really unfair. But it`s still going to be there until we win.``
JT  SNeaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:26 AM
|
#9 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| Eastern Michigan (0-0, 0-0) vs. Cincinnati (0-0, 0-0)
Thursday, September 1st at 7:00 PM
TV: None
Stadium: Nippert Stadium (Artificial Turf)
Line: Cincinnati -12
When freshman QB Gino Guidugli took over as the starter at Cincinnati just one game into the 2001 season, he immediately flashed the kind of talent and poise that assured Bearcat fans their offense would be in good hands for the next four years.
And indeed it was. In his four seasons under center, Guidugli became Cincinnati's all-time career leading passer. Of course, as with all good things in college and life, they must eventually come to an end.
As the 2005 season gets underway this Thursday night at Nippert Stadium, the Cincinnati Bearcats will begin their first year A.G. That is, After Gino. Unfortunately for Cincy head coach Mark Dantonio, a good deal of other talent departed along with his starting QB after the 2004 season.
To say the cupboard is bare might be a slight exaggeration, but not much of one. The Bearcats will return just three starters on offense, three on defense and the departed were quite valuable pieces.
On offense, along with the aforementioned Guidugli, Dantonio will be without the services of his starting running back Richard Hall as well as WRs Hannibal Thomas and George Murray, their top two pass catchers from 2004 who accounted for nearly 60% of all their receiving yards.
Cincinnati will attempt to piece together an offense with QB Dustin Grutza, a 6-2 redshirt freshman and a trio of RBs, sophomore Bradley Glatthaar (likely starter), sophomore Butler Benton and junior Mike Daniels.
The news is just as grim on defense as the eight departed starters from the Cincy defense represented their top eight tacklers from 2004.
Needless to say, the 2005 season, Cincinnati's first as a member of the Big East Conference, might be a bit of a rebuilding year.
With that in mind, what better team to start the year off with than the Eastern Michigan Eagles, right? Well, yes and no.
While its true Eastern Michigan has only had six winning seasons since 1974, the 2004 edition of the boys from Ypsilanti, Michigan showed some signs of life, especially on offense, en route to a 4-7 finish.
Coach Jeff Genyk returns eight starters on offense from a unit that sparkled in 2004. QB Matt Bohnet, a transfer from Iowa, settled in quite nicely in at EMU and finished sixth in the nation in total offense with 294 yards per game, while throwing 21 touchdowns.
By far and away, Bohnet's favorite target is WR Eric Deslauriers, who was recently placed on the watch list for the Fred Belitnikoff award which goes to the top receiver in college football. Deslauriers certainly deserves that after a 2004 campaign that saw him haul in 84 passes for 1, 257 yards and 13 touchdowns. His 114.27 receiving yards per game were good for fourth best in the nation. Not too shabby for a converted quarterback.
The ground game is in equally capable hands as RB Anthony Sherrell has rushed for well over 2,000 yards in his career and after successfully completing summer school, is eligible to play in 2005.
Rounding out the potent EMU offense is junior placekicker Andrew Wellock, who has been named to the Lou Groza Award (top collegiate kicker) Watch list for this season.
However, defense is what has traditionally kept Eastern Michigan down and they again struggled in that department in 2004. The Eagles ranked a porous 114th in the nation in total defense last year and will have to tighten up the ranks if they hope to sniff a winning campaign in '05.
This is the first ever meeting between these two schools.
**Vanderbilt at Wake Forest**
Wake Forest has moved Cory Randolph from quarterback to wide receiver this season. (Getty)
--Most sports books are listing Wake Forest (4-7 straight up, 4-6 against the spread) as a 9 1/2-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have struggled mightily as favorites during Jim Grobe's four-year tenure. They are just 4-13-1 ATS when favored, 3-9-1 as home 'chalk.'
--Wake has nine starters back on offense and six on defense. The leader of the defensive unit will be third-year sophomore linebacker Jonathan Abbate, who led the Demon Deacons in tackles (101) as a redshirt freshman.
--Wake has a 12-9-1 spread record in regular-season games against SEC foes. The Deacs are 8-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last nine home openers.
--Wake Forest senior running back Chris Barclay is suspended for the opener. Barclay, a first-team All-ACC selection in 2004, finished last season with 1,010 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Junior cornerback Riley Swanson (49 tackles, 5 passes broken up in '04) will also miss the Vandy game, but both players will be back for a Sept. 10 trip to Nebraska.
--In addition to Barclay, Wake has two other All-ACC performers back in the mix. Junior right tackle Steve Vallos has 23 career starts under his belt and was tabbed as a second-team All-ACC player last year. Also, senior punter Ryan Plackemeier (1st team) is back after averaging 43.9 yards per punt in '04.
--Vanderbilt (2-9 SU, 5-5 ATS) has gone 2-9 in each of Bobby Johnson's three seasons in Music City. There have only been two SEC wins in that stretch, double-digit home victories over Kentucky and Mississippi State. The other four wins have come against ho-hum opponents: UConn, Furman, UT-Chattanooga and Eastern Kentucky.
--The Commodores are 12-12-2 as underdogs during Johnson's tenure. They are 6-8 as road 'dogs.
--Vandy is still recovering from the off-season loss of one of its top players, RB Kwane Doster. A Tampa native, Doster was shot and killed in December while back home in the Ybor City area. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry in '04 and would've been the centerpiece of Vandy's offense this season.
--With the death of Doster, the graduation of Norval McKenzie and the early departure to the NFL of FB Matthew Tant, the 'Dores have been left dangerously thin in the backfield. However, they do have a veteran under center in senior QB Jay Cutler, who was a pre-season All-SEC pick.
--Cutler has started every game of Johnson's tenure and has passed for 5,624 career yards. He completed 61 percent of his throws in '04 and posted a 10/5 touchdown-interception ratio. Cutler can also make plays with his legs running the option and scrambling out of the pocket.
--Senior LB Moses Osemwegie is the latest in a line of great linebackers at Vandy. Osemwegie is a two-time first-team All-SEC pick, leading the 'Dores in tackles the last two years. He will play on Sundays just like four linebackers from Vandy who are currently in the NFL: Jamie Duncan, Matt Stewart, Jamie Winborn and Shelton Quarles.
--According to Sunday's edition of the Tennesseean, Vandy's starters are 100 percent healthy.
--Since 2000, the 'Dores are 3-9-1 ATS in non-conference games.
--ESPNU will have television coverage at 7 p.m. Eastern.
**Oregon at Houston**
--Most spots have installed Oregon (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) as a nine-point road favorite. The Ducks own an incredible 23-5 ATS record in their last 29 road openers (one was non-lined). Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the total at 61, but as of Tuesday, few books had a total available.
--The Ducks have a 13-8 spread record as road favorites during Mike Bellotti's 10-year tenure.
--This will be the seventh game for Oregon against a team from Conference USA. The Ducks are 6-1 SU versus C-USA foes, but they are just 1-3 ATS.
--Bellotti's bunch brings back seven starters on each side of the ball. There are plenty of reasons for optimism in Eugene this year, but the primary cause is the return of Kellen Clemens. The senior QB threw for 2,548 yards last year with a touchdown-interception ratio of 22/10.
--Not only is Clemens back in the mix, but so are his favorite targets. A pair of seniors, WR Demetrius Williams (47 catches for 593 yards, 2 TDs) and TE Tim Day (35 catches, 457 yards, 8 TDs), led the team in receiving last season. Williams had his season cut short after eight games because of an injury, but he's 100 percent healthy now.
--Senior RB Terrence Whitehead remains the starter despite the presence of true freshman Jonathan Stewart, who was ranked as the top high school running back in the nation by Rivals.com last year. Whitehead rushed for 1,144 yards and six touchdowns in '04, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Stewart has been hampered by an array of injuries during pre-season practice, so he's only listed as third on the depth chart at this point.
--Houston (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) returns eight starters on each side of the ball for Art Briles' third year at the helm.
--The Cougars went 1-1 ATS as home underdogs last year.
--Houston QB Kevin Kolb is back for his junior year after throwing for 2,766 yards as a sophomore. Kolb was named C-USA Freshman of the year two seasons ago. In 24 career starts, he has a 36/12 TD-INT ratio. At his current pace of 5,897 career passing yards, Kolb would break the school's all-time passing mark of 9,430 yards set by David Klingler.
--All of the skilled players for Houston are back this season, including Kolb's favorite wideout, Vincent Marshall. The 5'9" senior was a second-team All C-USA pick last year, hauling in 61 catches for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns.
--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 7 p.m. EST.
**Central Florida at South Carolina**
--Most sports books, as of Tuesday, have South Carolina (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) listed as a 21-point 'chalk' for Steve Spurrier's debut at Williams-Brice Stadium. The line opened at 19 1/2 and spent the better part of the last two weeks at 19. But that changed Tuesday, when heavy public action on the Gamecocks forces many books to move the number to 21.
--The 'Cocks have only five starters back on offense, four on defense. Sophomore cornerback Ko Simpson is the team's best player. He garnered SEC Freshman of the Year honors last season. Simpson was the team's second-leading tackler (61), but he's also a shutdown corner (6 interceptions, 6 passes broken up).
--Sophomore Blake Mitchell has been named the starter at quarterback for South Caroina. Mitchell saw limited action at garbage time of five games as a redshirt freshman last season.
--After Monday's practice, Spurrier told GamecockCentral.com that "8 to 10 true freshmen will play."
--Don't be surprised if Spurrier reaches into his bag of tricks for the opener in front of a raucous home crowd. As mentioned in a recent column, Spurrier will embrace his role as an underdog (not in this spot, but at South Carolina in general), and bettors shouldn't be surprised if he breaks out trick plays galore all year long. Remember, Spurrier's offensive genius was built at Duke when he was known to run 4-5 trick plays per game. Much of that trickery was put to bed late in his tenure at Florida (and with the Redskins).
--Central Florida (0-11 SU, 3-8 ATS) has lost 15 consecutive games after ending the '03 campaign with four straight losses before going winless in George O'Leary's first year in Orlando. The Knights had a 1-4 spread record as road underdogs in '04.
--UCF has nine starters back on offense and seven on defense.
--ESPN is in Columbia to bring us the broadcast at 7:30 p.m. EST.
JT  Sneaks |
| |
09-01-2005, 11:26 AM
|
#10 (permalink)
| | Assistant Coach Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 211
| **Temple at Arizona State**
–L as Vegas Sports Consultants installed Arizona State as a decided 26 1/2-point home ‘chalk’ over Temple. However, the line has since shifted to -31 since seven Owls players are suspended (five starters). This matchup is scheduled to begin Thursday at 10:00 p.m. ET, with Fox Sports Net providing coverage.
–Temple will have its hands full after going just 2-9 straight up and 6-4 against the spread last year.
–The only quality win the Owls had last season occurred against Syracuse as a 7 1/2-point home underdog, 34-24. The combined 58 points toppled the 51-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1.
–Temple ranked 108th last season in scoring defense by allowing 36.3 points per game, and 107th in total defense by surrendering 439.3 yards per contest.
–The Owls return four starters on offense and six on defense. Temple has won just three games the last two seasons.
–Coach Bobby Wallace’s team did manage a respectable 6-4 ATS record, including a 4-1 ATS ledger on the road.
–Arizona State is ranked 18th in the VegasInsider.com top-25 poll, fresh off a 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS ledger and Sun Bowl victory over Purdue.
–The Sun Devils were a solid 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS last year at home.
–Coach Dirk Koetter’s team ranked fifth in the country in 2004 in passing offense with an average of 317.3 points per contest. Arizona State also enjoyed a +5 turnover ratio.
–The Sun Devils have eight starters returning on offense, and six on defense. Quarterback Sam Keller filled in for the injured Andrew Walter last year and went 25-of-45 for 370 yards passing and three touchdowns against Purdue in the Sun Bowl.
–Temple and Arizona State have not played each other the previous few seasons.
**Idaho at Washington State**
The Washington State Cougars return six starters on defense. (AP Images)
–LVSC opened Washington State as a 27 1/2-point home favorite over Idaho. This contest is scheduled to begin Thursday at 10:00 p.m. ET.
–Idaho returns nine offensive starters and seven defensive players from a squad that went 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS.
–The Vandals posted a 3-6 ATS road record last season, while the defense forced a solid 27 turnovers.
–Idaho ranked 99th in scoring offense with 20.4 points per game, while ranking 113th in scoring defense by surrendering 39.4 points per contest. The Vandals were also a dismal 103rd in total defense by yielding 428.7 yards a game.
–Washington State was 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS last year, returning nine offensive starters and six defensive players. The Cougars were 0-5 ATS last season at Martin Stadium.
–Coach Bill Doba’s team was a respectable 35th in passing offense by amassing 240.6 yards per game last year, and they return the starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver.
–Washington State is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS versus Idaho the previous five seasons after prevailing last year as a 25-point road favorite, 49-8. The Cougars beat the Vandals in 2003 as a 26 1/2-point home ‘chalk,’ 25-0.
**Minnesota at Tulsa**
–LVSC has Minnesota as a 15-point road ‘chalk’ over Tulsa, with the total listed at 61. This contest is scheduled to begin Thursday at 10:15 p.m. ET, with ESPN2 providing coverage.
–Minnesota is off a 7-5 SU and 6-5 ATS campaign that culminated in a Music City Bowl victory over Alabama. The Golden Gophers have eight offensive and seven defensive starters returning.
–Coach Glen Mason’s team was a modest 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS away from home last year. Minnesota was an impressive fifth in the country in rushing offense by averaging 256.8 yards per game. The Gophers were also 15th in total offense with an average of 438.3 yards per contest.
–Minnesota ranked 19th in the nation in turnover ratio at +7, but was a lackluster 109th in passing defense by yielding 266 yards per game.
–Tulsa (4-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) was a modest 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS last year on its home field despite ranking an abysmal 105th in turnover margin (-10).
–The Golden Hurricane was the 101st ranked team in scoring defense by surrendering 33.2 points per matchup, and 106th in rushing defense (210.6 yards per game).
–Tulsa was an unblemished 3-0 ATS last season as a home underdog.
–The Golden Hurricane return five offensive and seven defensive starters.
–Minnesota and Tulsa have not played each other the previous few seasons.
JT  Sneaks |
| | | Thread Tools | | | | Display Modes | Linear Mode |
Posting Rules
| You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts HTML code is Off | | | All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:48 PM. |  Welcome Message | Welcome to Bang The Book - the internets fast growing Sports Handicapping Forum where handicappers from around the world come to discuss all aspects of sports betting and onling gambling. You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions, articles and polls. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, respond to polls, and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please join our forum today
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact support | |
|  Navigation Control Panel/Login |  Bet Here! |  Sportsbook Reviews | |