Service Plays

[Bobby O'Shea]

Is anyone interested in them? I get them from a friend and can post if anyone wants them--

6:00p

Teddy Covers
Buffalo U r349
+13.5 / 4 units



There’s no need for a long write-up about this game – the thought process here is simple. One of these two teams is a veteran squad, poised and confident, with the skill position talent to put some points on the board. That team is Buffalo. QB Drew Willy, RB James Starks and WR Namaan Roosevelt are a veteran trio of playmakers for a squad that contended for the MAC East title last year and blew the doors off UTEP in their opener.


The other team lacks confidence in themselves and their coaching staff, is vastly over-rated, and has gone 5-13 SU in their last 18 ballgames, a losing team and a losing program. This team is Pitt. It’s worth noting that three of those five wins during the 5-13 run came against true bottom feeders: Eastern Michigan, Grambling and a hard fought three point home win over lowly Syracuse. The other two wins both were high profile victories against opponents who, quite simply, choked – West Virginia, needing to win to reach the national title game and Cincinnati, when the Bearcats were ranked in the Top 25 following a 6-0 start last year.


Yes, the box score will show that Pitt suffered from turnover problems last week against BG, losing by ten despite dominating the game statistically. The box score will also show that Pitt couldn’t run the football against a mediocre MAC level defense, and young quarterback Bill Stull didn’t complete a pass longer than 18 yards. The box score won’t show that ‘here we go again’ mentality from the Panthers as their 14-0 early lead turned into a 27-17 defeat – their lack of fire trailing at home in the fourth quarter; their inability to execute a basic gameplan against an inferior foe; their lack of a homefield edge in a venue where Navy, UConn and South Florida beat them last year and BG has already beaten them this year. As this line steams higher and higher, backed by the betting public’s opinion that Pitt is actually a good football team, I’m looking in the other direction without question or pause. (#349) 4* Take Buffalo.

6:30p

Ted
California r357
-13.5 / 5 units



Here’s what I wrote last week, supporting a Big Ticket play on Oklahoma State, against Washington State. ”Washington State is in complete rebuilding mode under first year head coach Paul Wulff. Wulff brought most of his staff from Eastern Washington, where he was Big Sky Coach of the Year three times. But Bill Doba certainly did not leave the cupboard full for Wulff.


“The Cougars lost eight scholarships due to poor academic performance. They lost their three year starter at QB to the NFL, and his replacement, Gary Rogers, has reportedly been an interception machine in summer practice. Their offensive line now has three projected underclassman starters now that projected starting senior guard Dan Rowands has quit the team due to chronic shoulder pain. Their receiving corps, a hotbed of NFL talent in recent years, was decimated by graduation, and two projected replacements, Daniel Blackledge and Jeshau Anderson are both hurt, leaving true frosh to man the position. Running back Dwight Tardy is another question mark, coming off a torn ACL.


“On defense, it’s just as bad, if not worse. The defensive line is loaded with question marks, made even worse when tackle Andy Roof was kicked out of school this past week. The defense didn’t look very good to begin with; a unit that allowed more than 32 points per game last year. Quite simply, this team is a mess.”


Washington State played out of their minds defensively against Oklahoma State. They didn’t miss a tackle all game, stepped up their play in the red zone, and gained momentum from their crowd. It made absolutely no difference in a 26 point loss. Gary Rodgers managed only 82 yards passing. Dwight Tardy gained only 3.3 yards per carry, held under 60 yards for the game. And remember, this was game against an Oklahoma State defense that isn’t known for their dominant performances. Washington State is a bad football team, plain and simple. The betting marketplace does not yet seem to recognize how bad this squad really is.


And I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about additional injuries that Washington State suffered last week. Remember, this is a thin team to begin with after the program lost eight scholarships to poor academic performance, not to mention the weak recruiting in the final years of the Bill Doba era and the attrition that takes place whenever a new head coach steps in. Five more guys went down last week including starting cornerback Alfonso Jackson, his backup Markus Dawes and starting offensive lineman Andrew Roxas. Starting linebacker A’I Ahmu is a question mark here with a bad shoulder.


We’ll use a Big Ticket against Washington State again here, supporting a Cal squad that is 0-5 ATS in their last five tries as road favorites, losing straight up four times in that span. The Bears last win and cover as a road favorite? Right here in Pullman in an 18 point victory over a much better Cougars team than this one. Kevin Riley took firm control of the quarterback position last week while running backs Shane Vereen and Jahvid Best showed off the big play potential in the running game on any given handoff. In Jeff Tedford’s ‘good’ years, Cal has been a monster in this role: winning at Oregon State 49-7 and 41-13, at Washington 42-12 and 56-17, at Arizona 38-0, at Stanford 28-3. Expect a similar result in this mismatch, as the Bears continue to wipe the collective bad taste out of their mouths following last year’s 1-6 finish. The lone victory during that span? Of course, against Washington State. (#357) 5* Big Ticket: Take Cal.

7:00p

Alex Smart
Duke r312
+7.0 / 3 units



Duke to cover vs Northwestern 3* selection Duke has 17 returning starters this season and are the 2nd most experienced team in the ACC. The defense is being over looked and is extremely staunch. Last year they upset Northwestern 20-14, and are capable of turning the trick again, here as home dogs against HC Pat Fitzgeralds defensively deficient Northwestern Wildcats. Both teams are off lop sided wins last week, against weak opponents, and will primed to keep things rolling in this spot. Dukes QB Thadeus Lewis looked very comfortable under center last week in their 31-7 win against James Madison, which caught my eye, giving me even more confidence in the Blue Devils chance of pulling off back to back door crashers. Once again the revenge angle is being over played by the public , and once again I will recommend we lay down our cash with a under rated dog. Final notes & Key Trends: Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Duke in non-conference games, with 17 or more starters returning are 64-28 ATS , for a 70% conversion rate! Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover Projected score: Duke 27 Northwestern 20

7:00p

Alex Smart
Kent r353
+7.5 / 3 units



Kent to cover vs Iowa State 3* selection Kent State took out Iowa State last season by a score of 23-14, and with 16 returning starters on board this year, and a very good recruiting class backing them, the Flashes are capable of making a game out of this today, against what is another version of a rebuilding Cyclones program, that lost 25 letterman in the off season. I definitely feel Doug Martins Golden Flashes are going to go bowling this season if they stay healthy , behind one of the most under rated QB groups in the nation . Im also not reading to much into last weeks 21-0 loss to Boston College. More importantly as far as today goes, do not be surprised if they upset their hosts. Yes, I know Iowa State has 14 returning starters , and also have revenge on board, but sometimes these situations can be over stated, and the linesmakers know this , which in turn gives us line value backing the dog. Note: Most but not all of those 14 returning starters for Iowa State have shown themselves to be inept at the best of times, and why should anything change today! Play on Kent State to cover ....... Projected score: Kent State 21 Iowa State 20

7:00p

JB Sports
Kansas r366
-20.5 (-110) / 3 units



To say Kansas has been dominating at home would be an understatement. 7-0 last year winning by an average of 45 points and scoring an average of 56 points a game. Last week they won by 30 while scoring 40. Meanwhile, LA Tech is coming in off a nice upset against Miss. St., but an upset mostly setup by State's 5 turnovers. LA Tech was held under 250 yards of offense and were held to 1 touchdown or less in 5 of 7 road games last year. In addition, LA Tech has only covered 4 of their last 22 as a road dog. Look for Kansas to roll again.

7:30p

Ben Burns
Minnesota r317
Bowling Green r318
o55.5 / 4 units



I'm playing on Bowling Green and Minnesota to finish OVER the total. Both these offenses put up good numbers in Week 1 but both defenses showed some weaknesses. Minnesota scored 31 points against Northern Illinois. However, the Gophers' pass defense, which was absolutely terrible last season, gave up 326 passing yards and allowed NIU to average nearly 20 yards per completion. The Gophers were torched by the big play last season and that they gave up touchdown passes of 91 and 52 yards. The Falcons' receivers will surely be licking their chops at the thought of facing the porous and inexperienced Gophers' secondary. Last week, Bowling Green featured a large dose of the pass, throwing 42 passes (completing 26 of them) against what should prove to be a stout Pittsburgh defense. The Falcons finished with 27 points at Pittsburgh and this defense isn't nearly as good. While Bowling Green did manage to hold Pittsburgh to just 14 points, that was quite fortunate as the Panthers ran more than 80 plays, had 27 first downs and nearly 400 yards of total offense. Including last week's game and including last season's meeting between these teams (32-31 in OT) the Gophers have seen the OVER go 7-1 their last eight lined non-conference games. Note that the over/under line has come down slightly from its opener, giving us some additional line value. Look for both offenses to put up points and for the final combined score to finish above that relatively low number. *Shootout of the Month

7:30p

Ben Lewis
Bowling Green r318
-5.5 (-110) / 3 units



Saturday
3* CFB Action Bowling Green -5.5 Minnesota (Sportsbook.com - Saturday, 7:35 ET)
This will be the first time since 1966 that a Big Ten team visits Bowling Green. Think the Falcons and their faithful will be fired up? Bowling Green also beat Minnesota 32-31 last year and was way better than a ranked Pitt team last week.

8:00p

Ben Lewis
Miami (Florida) r333
+21.5 (-110) / 3 units



3* CFB Action Miami +21.5 Florida (Sportsbook.com - Saturday, 8 ET)
The Hurricanes' Robert Marve makes his first-ever start at quarterback, but Florida's trash-talking will fire up Miami and get Randy Shannon's troops going. In addition, Florida WR Percy Harvin will be limited in his first game of the season.

8:00p

Bob Harvey
Utah r370
-22.0 (-110) / 5 units



This is a very good Utah team that should cover this spread easily. The Utes went into the "Big House" last Saturday and beat Michigan. Utah can score almost at will and should pile up big numbers against UNLV.


8:00p

Ted
Florida r334
-22.5 / 3 units



It’s very dangerous to step in front of Top 5 schools, all of whom are jockeying for position in the all-important polls, even here in early September. The voters have a huge impact on the eventual BCS championship game, and frankly, they don’t seem to watch many games. That’s why Saturday Night’s showdown between Miami and Florida is a huge deal for the Gators, currently ranked behind USC, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma in both major polls.


Talent wise, Florida is every bit as good as any team in the country. Their team speed is unreal; their quarterback is coming off a Heisman winning season; and they can score touchdowns on defense and special teams every week. Here’s what I wrote while watching the Gators annihilate Hawaii last Saturday, taking notes in my typical stream-of-consciousness style:


“The first defensive touchdown of the year came early in the second quarter. This defense is going to score a lot of touchdowns this year! I know that Tim Tebow is the reigning Heisman winner, and I know he’s really good, but every time I watch him, I’m amazed at how good he actually is – this is a QB with no flaws along with the speed to burn defenses and the arm strength to fire accurately 50 yards downfield on the run. Third TD was a 74 yard punt return – NEVER forget how many touchdowns this team is capable of scoring without their offense on the field. Fourth touchdown came on a 34 yard run, another big play TD from redshirt frosh Chris Rainey. This team speed is going to far too much for weaker foes to handle.”


Florida is a great team, at home in a national TV game with a chance to showcase their stuff. The SEC, as a conference, dominated against the spread last week with a 7-2 mark, including dominant showings from second tier programs in recent years like ‘Bama, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky. Miami, on the other hand, is a rebuilding team and a rebuilding program from a conference that featured ugly performances from high profile teams like Virginia Tech, Virginia, Clemson and NC State as part of a 2-4 ATS weekend.


The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt frosh QB Robert Marve, who served a one game suspension last week. This will be his first collegiate start against an insanely good defense. The Hurricanes lost three senior starters from their offensive line to graduation – expect Marve to be running for his life all game behind the rebuilt OL. Their receiving corps, too, was decimated by graduation, leaving a young, inexperienced unit that won’t be capable of helping out their quarterback, In their final four games last year, Miami lost 19-16 in overtime to NC State, 48-0 to Virginia, 44-14 to Virginia Tech and 28-14 to Boston College. That’s an average of 11 points per game. I expect the Hurricanes to struggle to reach 11 points in this contest, and Florida has every reason to run up the score in front of a national TV audience. (#334) 3* Take Florida.

10:00p

Alex Smart
Arizona State r374
-13.5 / 4 units



Arizona State to win and cover vs Stanford - 4* selection -Arizona State in 2008 are a better team than last years 10 game winners , and look like a real dark horse in the PAC 10 again . Their opponents tonight the Stanford Cardinal are media darlings after upsetting national power house USC last season, under HC Jim Harbaugh . Despite of having 16 starters returning this year, and winning their first game against Oregon State, thanks to a pile of mistakes and turnovers by the Beavers, the Cardinal are still a year away for competing on the road, with the better teams in this conference, and that will become evident tonight, behind what I have learned is a very vulnerable secondary. ASU has hammered the Cardinal by a combined 79-6 count the last two seasons, and I expect more one sided action is on tap again, behind one of the PAC 10s most dangerous offenses and Qbs ( Rudy Carpenter) . Final notes & Key Trends: ASU is 7-0 ATS L/7 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the , winning SU by an average of 26.3 PPG. Also Arizona State has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD favorites, against a revenge minded opponent. Projected score: Arizona State 38 Stanford 13

10:15p

Ben Burns
Texas-El Paso r376
+27.0 / 4 units



I'm taking the points with UTEP. I often find that the betting public over-reacts to results from Week 1. This is true in both the pro and college ranks. That's what I feel has happened here, as the line has gotten out of control. This is based on Texas winning big last week and Utep getting blown out. Keep in mind an important point though. The Longhorns won at home while Utep lost on the road. Tonight's game will be played at El Paso, in front of the fired up Miners' fans, who have been anxiously awaiting this game. In addition to the Week 1 results causing the general public to jump all over the favorite, those results also have Longhorns patting themselves on the back a bit, believing all the press clippings which they are reading. Keep in mind that Texas returned the second fewest starters in the Big 12 this season. The Miners are very anxious to bounce back and atone for last week's embarrassing loss. Note that they've had some extra preparation time, as their game came on Thursday while Texas played on Saturday. The Miners, who have had this game circled for ages, are 9-4-1 ATS the last 14 times they were listed as underdogs. The Miners are an even better 11-2 ATS the last 13 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for the Miners to bounce back with a highly motivated better effort, putting up a much tougher fight than most are expecting and dropping the Longhorns to 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were in the road favorite role.


Bobby O