College Cram Session

[Raji]

Something that stuck with me from last week’s drivel: Professional sports bettor David Malinksy emphasized the importance of understanding why the line has been set at a particular number. For example, if you know the starting quarterback is out, so do the oddsmakers, and that is why the line is set where it is. Recognize this, and then determine whether bookmakers are accurate in accessing the impact in accordance with the line.

Remember, oddsmakers like Pete Korner of the Las Vegas Sports Club set the line with the information they have available at the time.

“It's up to the bookmakers to change that line, be it with money or on air if he thinks an element has changed the value of the line before he gets money coming down and interpret the value of changing factors as they occur over the week,” explains Korner.

News that came out in the middle of the week that did not immediately affect the line:

Georgia Tech at Boston College (-7): The Yellow Jackets announced Thursday that two of their starting linebackers would miss Saturday’s ACC opener.

Oregon State at Penn State (-13): Joe Paterno announced on his Thursday night radio show that two of his starting defensive linemen, including first team All-Big Ten selection Maurice Evans, and a reserve tight end were suspended for the Oregon State game. The Nittany Lions opened as 13-point favorites against the Beavers. The line surged to as high as 16.5 at some books.

Tropical Storm Hanna: Take a glance at what the opening totals of these games, which are expected to be impacted by Hanna, and see it they’ve been properly adjusted.

1. West Virginia at East Carolina, 4:30 p.m.: Opening total — 49. Forecast: rain ending late afternoon.
2. Ole Miss at Wake Forest, 3:30 p.m.: Opening total — 46.5. Forecast: rain ending late afternoon.
3. Northwestern at Duke, 7 p.m.: Opening total— 44. Forecast: rain ending late in the evening.
4. UConn at Temple, 12 p.m.: Opening total — 38. Forecast: rain throughout the day.

New clock rules

Scoring was up slightly, but plays were down significantly and games were a little shorter in Week 1. Does that mean it’s time to jump on the under? Not necessarily.
If the trend continues, the oddsmakers will adjust way before you do. But do take a close look at games that are expected to be blowouts.

“I think if you want to burn the clock it becomes easier with the 40-second play clock,” said Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops at his weekly press conference. “If you get to the last four minutes of the game and you only have a limited number of possessions you need to use all of it, and we will."

Question of the day: Should you bet the same amount on every game you play?

I do, because I want to feel equally strong about each of my plays. That never happens.

Here’s what does happen: I end up dropping as much on my just-because-it’s-on-TV bet as I do on a game I’ve actually done some real handicapping on. I sleep with a severe lack of discipline.

Anyway, money management articles generally bore me. I’d much rather hear it from you guys. Should I bet the same amount on every game, keeping in mind my discipline issues?

Good luck everyone. It will always be our turn to catch a break tomorrow.


Raji