Cram Session

[Raji]

Before we begin, let’s all drink to the beginning of football season. This will help build up your tolerance so you can drown your sorrows in a couple days after seeing your entire bankroll go down the drain.



Now, for those of you who practiced drinking at your local tavern last night and are waking up 20 minutes before the noon slate, here are three quick eye-openers to assist you in making the always exciting but rarely profitable hangover-induced impulse bet.



1. Early in the season good defenses completely shutdown adjusting offenses. See South Carolina’s 34-0 victory over North Carolina State. Gamecock starter Tommy Beecher tossed four picks, and Steve Spurrier’s club still cruised. When in doubt, go with the better defense.

2. Of the six early kickoffs with lines, Florida has the biggest advantage in returning starters. The Gators (-34.5) return 16 starters to Hawaii’s eight.

3. Barking Dog: East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech (-10), 12 p.m.: The Pirates are the vastly more experienced team, returning 15 starters, including nine on defense. ECU starting quarterback Patrick Pinkney came in as a back-up against Virginia Tech last season and gave the Hokies fits in a hard-fought 17-7 loss.



For of those of you who were good boys on Friday night and are looking for more expert opinions, there’s this from professional sports bettor, David Malinksy.



"Every year around this time on the calendar there are letters, e-mails, phone calls, text messages and even once an airplane flying a banner overhead, asking the same question - 'where do we start if we want to win?' And every year I offer the same answer, which can seem silly on the surface, but actually has merit. Remember that these games have a LINE on them. Obvious, right? Yet annually we see people lined up to bet hand over fist at the start of the season, and what do many of them have as their ammunition? The very reasons why the line has been set where it was in the first place.



So when someone contacts me and says 'I want to bet Big State U. this week because of X, Y and Z', I often tell them that they have done a wonderful job of explaining the line. And that is all. If you are betting based on the same logic that has already been used to set the line, you are laying -110 without an advantage. So the best way to start any season is to try to grasp the concept that the process of setting the line is kinetic attempt by sharp people to beat the bettors to the punch. And that if you do not at least try to understand those processes, the bankroll will not last very long."



That especially good advice early on, when oddsmakers, for the most part, are using the same information available to the public to form their perception of teams. More so than any other time in the season, don’t doubt your research … if you’ve done any.



Now, that you’ve massaged your brain with the above, consider this deep analysis and store it away for later down the road.



True national championship contenders blowout severely inferior opponents. If that shocker floored you, get up, regroup and consider this.

The last four national champions’—LSU, Florida, Texas and USC—average margin of victory over lower-tier programs like Louisiana-Lafayette, Rice and Western Carolina for example, was 40.7 points. Ten points was the most any of the eventual national champions allowed in a blowout.



In contrast, teams expected to contend for a national title who were unimpressive against doormats eventually slipped up down the road. Last year, Texas was ranked fourth to start the season. The Longhorns struggled mightily to put away Arkansas State (21-13) in Week 1 and would end up with three losses.



In 2005, Tennessee entered the season at No. 3, but barely got buy UAB early and finished the season at 6-5. The theory is that true dominant teams will simply overwhelm inferior opponents even with their reserves. Massive blowouts—which we’ll define as by 40 points or more—represent depth, which will certainly play a factor later down the season.



Basically, look to see whether Georgia, Ohio State or Oklahoma has problems, then rely on that knowledge down the road when they face better competition.



While you try to recover from having that little piece of gold dropped on you, check out these tips and well wishes from other handicapping experts, some more fun-loving and sarcastic than others. They all, including myself, wish you the best of luck this season.



“Rick Neuheisel is an innocent man”

Frank Doyle

Betting analyst, Sportsinteraction



“My 2 cents to all the players out there: Make it Happen! and remember: Luck never gives; it only lends...”

Randy Scott

Sportsbook Manager, betEd.com



“Because of the uncertainty of the lines in the first week, I always tell people (just for the first Saturday only) when in doubt, take the school that ends in with the letter "n". If they both end with "n", take the shorter name.”

Pete Korner, Las Vegas Odds Maker



“Sports Betting is easy...Just buy every, 1,000-Star Lock of the Millennium, and Bailout Game you find. Of course, it's just coincidence they all fall on Sunday or Monday night. That's why these games exist...To bail us all out, ya know. And the more 1,000 percent systems they are backed by the better!”

--Erik Scheponik, Elite Sports Investing



Random notes: The South Carolina-North Carolina State line moved by far the most of any of the opening week games as of Friday. Obviously, that may change as the action heats up Saturday.The Gamecocks opened at around an 11-point favorite, but went off at more than 14 points at most books. Bettors won big, with S.C.’s 34-0 victory.



As of late Friday afternoon, the Kansas State-North Texas line had seen the most movement in Saturday’s games. The Wildcats opened as 24-point favorites, but had surged to 26.5.



This little interesting tidbit came from Pat Forde’s always fun Forde-Yard Dash column on ESPN.com. Duke enters the season with the longest streak of games without being favored against another I-A opponent at 32. LSU has the longest streak of games being favored against I-A opponents at 21.

Raji