FREE NCAA Football Pick - North Texas at Kansas State

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7:05 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

KANSAS STATE -26 over North Texas

The Wildcats host the “Mean” Green on Saturday to kickoff the football season for both teams. Kansas State is a big favorite here, as they should be. North Texas is coming off a horrendous season in which the team went just 2-10, and since going 7-5 in 2004, they have simply been have been atrocious, posting a combined 7-28 ledger over the last three years.

Kansas State has suffered through their third losing season in the last four years, posting just a 5-7, but they are poised to get back to a winning campaign in 2008.

North Texas relied heavily on the passing attack last season, but neither Daniel Meager or Giovanni Vizza were very successful. The two signal-callers combined for just 21 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. Vizza returns and will be little more than target practice for K-State.

On defense, North Texas surrendered an eye-popping 45+ points per game and nearly 500 total yards per outing in 2007. They allowed 230 rushing ypg last season and lost three starting linebackers, so that number doesn’t figure to improve any time soon.

The Wildcats were an extremely dangerous offensive unit last year, especially with their passing attack. Josh Freeman threw for 3,300+ yards and 18 TDs. Freeman should have another solid season and we expect him to scorch North Texas here.

Kansas State's main problem this past season came on the defensive side of the football, as the team was abused for nearly 31 ppg, but it should be more than adequate against the Not-So-Mean Green.

The Wildcats simply feast on teams like North Texas, as they are 5-0 SU (+35.8 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.9 ppg) as a non-conference home favorite since 2005, including 54-7 SU win over North Texas as a -27' favorite. Meanwhile, North Texas is 0-14 SU (-38.4 ppg) & 0-14 ATS (-13.4 ppg) in non-conference road games vs. opponents not off a SU loss of 40+ points, including last year when they lost at Oklahoma 79-10 as a 41-point dog and 66-7 at Arkansas as a 36-point underdog.

Kansas State will make a statement here, looking to come roaring out of the gates with a stomping of the Mean Green.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS STATE 47 NORTH TEXAS 13