Finally

[Raji]

Thursday Aug. 28 -No. 23 Wake Forest at Baylor (+12, 51)

People in Winston-Salem are excited for college football to begin. They have good reason, as the Demon Deacons return 14 starters on offense and defensive from last seasons team that finished the year 9-4. They have a great QB/RB tandem in Riley Skinner and Josh Adams critics took notice also, by rewarding Wake Forest a No. 23 ranking in each of the two major preseason polls.

With an opening line of Wake -14, bookmakers seem to be giving the Demon Deacons just a bit too much respect. The line currently sits at -11 1/2, and I think that is the perfect number for this matchup. One reason I think this line was overinflated in Wake's favor, is that they covered seven of their last eight games last year, and bookmakers were starting to notice that people were on the Wake bandwagon.

Since the spread came down a couple points, not much of a surprise that the total moved down a couple of points (from 52 1/2 to 50 1/2).

We are very heavy on Wake Forest, currently using -11 1/2 (-115) and the betting pubic is unphased that we are shading the vigorous 5 cents in Wake's favor. For every bet we are taking on Baylor, we are taking six bets on Wake. This will by far be our biggest decision for Thursday college football.



Also, we are pretty heavy on the over (about two-thirds of our action on total is on over, mainly at 50 1/2 and 51).

A lot of people are looking at the standings from last year, and when they see Baylor going winless in the Big 12, that makes them side towards Wake Forest. One thing that worries me is it appears they have a QB controversy in Waco.

Robert Griffin will be the likely starter on Thursday, but if he struggles, look for former Miami transfer Kirby Freeman to get some snaps. One thing that Baylor has in its favor is home field advantage. Not only do the players realize that they still have a chance this season, but so do their fans. After all, everyone is still 0-0.

If Baylor's defense was like last year, then their fans and bookmakers will be in for a long night. While I dont think they have a chance to pull off the outright upset, I think that Baylor has a decent shot at a cover.

Interesting stat(s) to ponder: Baylor leads the all-time series 4-0. Wake Forest has never won a game in the state of Texas (0-11). Baylor was a woeful 2-6 ATS (against the spread) to close out last season.


Raji