New Uears Eve Bowl Info

[Raji]

Monday, December 31st

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Air Force at California, 12:30 ET

Air Force:
7-1 ATS off a straight up win
13-3 ATS away playing with 2+ weeks rest

California:
0-7 ATS off BB conference games
2-10 ATS off a straight up loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brut Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
TV: CBS
Oregon vs. South Florida, 2:00 ET

Oregon:
16-6 ATS off a home loss
9-2 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

South Florida:
9-2 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games
5-1 Under off BB conference wins

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
El Paso, Texas
TV: ESPN2
Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech, 2:00 ET

Fresno State:
20-8 Over playing on artificial turf
22-10 Over off an Under

Georgia Tech:
1-9 ATS off BB Overs
1-5 ATS off a home game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Florida State vs. Kentucky, 4:00 ET

Florida State:
6-1 ATS after allowing 37+ points
5-1 ATS off 3+ games forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Kentucky:
11-3 Under playing with 2+ weeks rest
12-2 Under off BB conference losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insight Bowl
Tempe, Arizona
TV: NFL
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State, 5:30 ET

Indiana:
4-15 ATS off 5+ games committing 2+ turnovers
1-5 ATS off a home win by 3 or less points

Oklahoma State:
13-3 Over off an ATS loss
5-1 Over off BB road games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
(TC) Auburn vs. Clemson, 7:30 ET


Auburn:
6-1 ATS as an underdog
5-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Clemson:
9-2 Under in bowl games
16-6 Under after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Raji

[Raji]

#16-- Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, 12/31
Cal was 5-0, ranked #2 in country, then lost at home to Oregon State (backup QB let himself be sacked when easy tying FG was within reach), then wheels fell off, with Bears losing six of seven (0-7 vs spread) and can't be real happy about being here. Bears had 15 takeaways in 5-0 start (+11) but only nine after that (-12). Cal is 2-4 vs bowl teams, losing to non-bowlers Washington, Stanford- they were outscored 77-30 in second half of last six games. Huskies ran ball for 334 yards vs Cal, a red flag.

Air Force is playing in first bowl in five years; they won six of last seven games (7-0 vs spread) with its only loss 34-31 at New Mexico; Falcons are 4-2 vs spread as dog- they gave up 31-31- 34 points in their losses. AF ran ball for 212+ yards in each of its last eight games; they ran for 437-285-569 in last three, so Cal is focused on stopping run, or they better be- a loss clinches 6-7 season. They have 4-year starter at QB- their losses this season are by 31-6 (BYU), 31-20 (Navy) 34-31 (New Mexico).

Favorite covered last three Armed Forces Bowls, winning by 18- 29-12 points. Cal is healthier now and capable of posting huge numbers, but service academy teams are always focused. AF is going to run ball, shorten game; they're much mentally tougher than mentally weak Cal team that folded when adversity struck. Cal has edge in speed, talent, but they are depressed team.

#17-- Sun Bowl, El Paso, 12/31
Oregon QB Dixon was headed towards Heisman before he blew knee out; Ducks lost last three games after an 8-1 start, but they did take Oregon State to OT in Civil War, losing 38-31, behind 4th-string QB Roper, Ducks were 24-67/249 passing in last two games, and turned ball over nine times in last three. Ducks are a dog for first time since routing Michigan 39-7 Sept 8 (+7). It'll be interesting to see how Roper reacts to increased practice time. Oregon is just 17-64 (26.6%) on 3rd down last three games.

South Florida won at Auburn, beat West Virginia, but a 3-game skid (allowed 30 ppg) cost them January bowl slot. USF won last three games, scoring 48 ppg. Soph QB Grothe threw seven picks in three losses (five in nine wins)- this is their third bowl in row. Bulls are 22-11 vs spread out of conference since '01. West Va's 188 rushing yards were most vs USF this season; will be fun to see if Oregon RB Stewart can top that figure, as Ducks try to lessen burden on young QB Roper.

Underdogs covered 10 of last 12 Sun Bowls, with Pac-10 team winning last three; six of last eight were decided by six or less points. Totals in last six Sun Bowls were 60-58-61-50-88-77 pts (an average of 65.7). Both of these teams lost three games in a row after reaching #2 in country. USF held seven opponents to less than 50% passing; we'll see how much they pressure young QB Roper, making just his second start.

#18-- Humanitarian Bowl, Boise, 12/31
Georgia Tech fired its coach, hired Navy coach Johnson, but he isn't coaching here (DC Tenuta is); last game for 11 Tech senior starters (Fresno has six). Jackets are 4-7-1 vs spread last dozen tries as road favorite; they're 5-0 if they allow less than 25 points 2-5 if they allow 25+. Underdog is 9-2 vs spread in Tech's lined games (Jackets are 1-5 vs spread as favorite). Players have to be wondering where they fit in with new coach, especially offense, so long trip, interim coach make Tech shaky proposition.

Fresno State scored 30+ points in last four games and seven of last eight; they had special teams TD in three straight games at midpoint of season. Bulldogs are just 1-4 vs bowl teams; they also hammered Kansas State, who would have been in bowl had they beaten Fresno. FSU is 3-2 vs spread as an underdog so far this season; they have earned reputation of going anywhere to play anybody, and have done well as dog. They lost in three OT to Texas A&M on brutally hot September day, then got waxed the next week by Oregon, but this is a dangerous underdog.

Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in this bowl last seven years, with an ACC team winning three of last four, but the one loss was 2004, when Fresno State beat Virginia. Oddly, Tech hasn't played on carpet since last time they were here, four years ago. I don't like backing interim coaches in bowl games, especially a team that is travelling as far as Jackets are, since Johnson's new offensive system will cause some players to transfer. We have a selecton on this game in ths box below.

#19-- Music City Bowl, Nashville, 12/31
No freakin' idea what effect suspensions will have on Florida St squad that is down to 43 scholarship players for this game- now they also have walk-ons to draw from, but how many can you use and still will game? Seminoles once won 11 bowls in a row, from 1985-95, but those days are over (4-4 in last eight), as they try to right ship and keep Seminoles nationally relevant. FSU is 3-4 in last seven games after a 4-1 start; they are 5-1 when they score 21+, 2-4 when they don't. Weatherford improved, but FSU is still just nine for last 29 on third down, not good.

Kentucky is explosive team that has senior QB, head coach who was in NFL, and battle-tested team that was 6-1 after upsetting LSU, but then lost four of last five, losing to Tennessee in OT, as they failed to break long losing skid to Vols. UK beat Tommy Bowden in this game LY (28-20 vs Clemson), now they go after his father. They'll need to protect Woodson and ball better to do this- they gave up 23 sacks in last five games, turned it over 11 times in last four games. Kentucky is 1-4 when scoring less than 40 points-- it would be stunning if they got 40 on FSU.

Florida State is probably concerned that West Virginia is going to lure OC Fisher away and screw up their succession plans for post-Bowden era. Their roster is deimated for this game, moreso on defense, apparently. Kentucky has had terrific two-year run with Woodson at QB. Seminoles are up against it here, but they have chance to be creative, play some different guys. Woodson has had terrific UK career; he figures to end it well in this game.

#20-- Insight Bowl, Tempe AZ, 12/31
Oklahoma State lost its offensive coordinator to Southern Miss they are one of two teams in whole country to average 230+ yds a game, both running and passing, but they gave up 35+ points in seven games this season. Cowboys covered eight of last 11 as road favorite; they played tougher schedule than Indiana did but lost three of last four games, allowing 38+ points in four of last five contests. OSU was 3-5 when they had turnover ratio of less than +2. Cowboys are 2-6 vs bowl teams, beating FAU and Texas Tech. This is their fifth bowl in last six years.

Indiana lost coach Hoeppner to brain tumor in June; his stated goal was "Play 13"; in other words, go to bowl for first time in 14 years, which they accomplished. Coach Lynch was rewarded for job well done with multi-year contract. Hoosiers are 6-0 if they allow 24 or less points, 1-5 when they don't. Opponents were 26 for 51 on 3rd down, in last three games- not good. Indiana has covered 12 of last 38 as road underdog- they have talented soph QB who can run and an NFL receiver in 6-7 Hardy. Indiana will be an emotional, excited team in this game.

To me, this was the most fun bowl matchup, just concerning the two teams involved; lot of offense, not so much defense, wide open play. Should be fun game to watch, too bad NFL Network in broadcasting it. Two artificial turf teams playing on grass will disrupt timing at first, but once these two offenses get going, it will be a shootout. Oklahoma State hasn't impressed me with its level of consistency; with the OC leaving, is Indiana a live dog?


Raji

[Raji]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31ST

Bell Helicoptor Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, TX
Air Force vs. California (ESPN | 12:30 PM ET)

While Air Force has won six of its last seven games, the game they lost, 34-31 to New Mexico, was the only team of the bunch to finish the season with a winning record. Going back even farther, the last win Air Force had over a winning team was on September 13th, when they beat Texas Christian, 20-17.
Although the Bears have lost five of their last six games, it gives the team a chance to finish on an up note, and begin laying the foundation for next season. The game also marks a homecoming for the two Golden Bears from the Dallas area, Justin Forsett and Brock Mansion.
Motivation could again be a huge factor, as Cal lost $10 in slipping from Rose Bowl to Holiday Bowl and got blown out 45-31 by Texas Tech as an 11-point favorite back in 2004. )
Cal is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games on grass.
The OVER is 13-6 in Air Force's last 19 games as an underdog.


Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX
South Florida vs. Oregon (CBS | 2 PM ET)

Oregon is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on turf.
South Florida is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.
The OVER is 7-3 in Oregon's last 10 non-conference games.


Humanitarian Bowl - Boise, ID
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State (ESPN2 | 2 PM ET)

Fresno State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
The OVER is 10-4 in Fresno's last 14 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 6-2 in Fresno's last 8 games on turf.


Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN
Kentucky vs. Florida State (ESPN | 4 PM ET)

Florida State has an undetermined number of players that are not expected to play in the Music City Bowl due to academic misconduct.


Chick-fil-A Bowl - Atlanta, GA
#23 Auburn vs. #15 Clemson (ESPN | 7:30 PM ET)

Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
Clemson is 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The UNDER is 15-5 in Auburn's last 20 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 11-5 in Clemson's last 16 non-conference games.


Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (NFL | TBA)

Indiana is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on grass.
The OVER is 16-7 in Indiana's last 23 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 7-2 in Oklahoma State's last 9 games as a favorite.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---
Seminoles will be without top defenders, offensive linemen
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---

12-22-07

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Thirty-six Florida State players won't be going to the Dec. 31 Music City Bowl against Kentucky because of an academic cheating scandal, other violations of team rules or injuries.

Most sportsbooks have pulled the line, but the Wildcats can be found at -3 on wsex.com and -4 on oddsmaker.com.

Linebacker Dekoda Watson, cornerback Patrick Robinson, who had six interceptions, and three top defensive tackles were among the players sidelined either as a result of the ongoing investigation into an academic cheating scandal at the school or some other violation of team rules.

''It is very important that the media make clear that those missing the bowl trip are not included because of either injury or for a violation of team policy,'' associate athletic director Rob Wilson said in a statement accompanying the travel list. ''It would be irresponsible to imply or state that any or all of the student-athletes will miss the trip for one particular reason.''

Junior quarterback Xavier Lee, who started three games for the Seminoles, was among offensive players not traveling. The offensive line was also hit hard with tackle Caz Piurowski, offensive tackle Damon Rose and guard Jackie Claude not making the trip.

A violation of team rules could range from poor class attendance to a run-in with the law or failing a drug test, among many other things.

And while the school usually has a couple of casualties after the first semester, never has a Bobby Bowden-coached team limped off to postseason play without this many players.

''You have 22 positions out there and some you'd be more concerned about than others,'' Bowden said following Friday's practice. ''I think we've gotten everything we could out of it.''

Thirteen of the names missing from the travel list had started games this season for Florida State. Nine of the players were non-scholarship athletes.

Meanwhile, former Florida State athletic director David Hart Jr. rebutted part of Florida State President T.K. Wetherell's statement Friday that could have implied that the scandal led to Hart's leaving the university a year before his contract expired.

''There's no connection there,'' Hart said Saturday. ''I can assure you that my separation from Florida State had absolutely nothing to do with this current review of academic misconduct. To even suggest otherwise would be irresponsible.''


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---
NCAAF Gameday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---

Monday, December 31

College Football Gameday

The college football bowl season really starts to heat up as the year comes to an end. Here's a look at the half dozen games on the NCAA's schedule for New Year's Eve . . .

Armed Forces Bowl: California vs. Air Force, 12:30pm ET

The Golden Bears didn't exactly excel in 2007 - at least not in the second half of the season. California began the year with five straight wins and was climbing the polls, but from there they crashed to just a 6-6 record (3-6 in the Pac-10). They'll now take on Air Force in an attempt to get over the .500 mark. The Falcons finished second in the Mountain West with a 6-2 mark and they went 9-3 overall on the season. California, though, is still pegged as a 3.5-point favorite in this contest, with the total sitting at 54.5.


Humanitarian Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State, 2:00pm ET

The Yellow Jackets won't have Chan Gailey on the sidelines for their bowl game - he was fired by the team at the end of the regular season and replaced on an interim basis by defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta. Georgia Tech went 7-5 this season (4-4 in the ACC), and fell out of the Top 25. The Bulldogs ended up in third place in the WAC with a 6-2 mark, and they were 8-4 overall on the season. Fresno State, though, has been pegged as a 6-point underdog in the Humanitarian Bowl, with the total at 54.5 points.


Sun Bowl: South Florida vs. Oregon, 2:00pm ET

The Bulls were ranked as high as No. 2 this season. The Ducks were ranked as high as No. 2 this season. Yet here they are, competing in the Sun Bowl instead of one of the more prestigious postseason contests. South Florida's second-half decline left them at No. 23 in the rankings with a 9-3 record, while 8-4 Oregon had fallen out of the Top 25 altogether by the end of the year. The Ducks won't have QB Dennis Dixon back for this game, and they've been listed as a 6-point underdog. The contest's total is sitting at 52.


Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Florida State, 4:00pm ET

The Wildcats didn't have an easy time in the tough Southeastern Conference this season - they went just 3-5 against their rivals, and 7-5 overall. Still, Kentucky has been listed as a 9.5-point favorite in the Music City Bowl, thanks in part to the turmoil surrounding the Florida State program. The Seminoles, who went 4-4 in the ACC and 7-5 overall this season, have around three dozen players suspended for this game because of various rule violations. The total for this game has been listed at 57.5 points.


Insight Bowl: Indiana vs. Oklahoma State, 6:00pm ET

The Hoosiers were tied for the second-worst record in the Big Ten this season at 3-5, but a 7-5 overall mark qualified them for this year's Insight Bowl. They're going to have to win the postseason contest as an underdog, though, as Oklahoma State has been pegged as a 4-point favorite in the game (with the total sitting at 69 points). The Cowboys finished at .500 in both the Big 12 (4-4) and overall (6-6) this season, and they'll be taking on the Hoosiers for the first time since tying 7-7 in Indiana 77 years ago.


Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs. Auburn, 7:30pm ET

The Chick-fil-A Bowl is the only matchup Monday that features two teams ranked in the Top 25 - Clemson is at No. 15, and Auburn is at No. 22. Clemson had a solid year in the ACC, going 5-3 against conference opponents and 9-3 overall. Auburn also went 5-3 during their conference schedule (the SEC), and they won eight of 12 games overall. These two teams met in this bowl back in 1998, with Auburn coming out on top. This time around Clemson is a 2.5-point favorite, with the game's total pegged at 46.5 points.

Raji