Friday Bowl Info

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Michigan State vs. Boston College (-4, 56)

The Line

This line opened at -3 but many books have already moved it to -3 ½ and -4. Not only is the betting public on the Eagles, but 77 percent of Wagerline users who made a pick on this game have also chosen BC to cover the spread.

The streak

Boston College currently holds the nation’s longest bowl winning streak with seven straight wins. Michigan State is playing in its first bowl game since 2003.

The guarantee

Usually this type of thing comes from a player. But Boston College athletic director Gene DeFilippo has promised victory in Orlando on Dec. 28.

"We're going to a bowl and we will win it," DeFilippo said earlier this month. "We'll be 11-3 and that will be a heckuva season. We've got our bowl streak (a best-in-the-nation seven straight wins). We've still got a lot to play for."

DeFilippo could be trying to drum up supporters to travel to Florida. Boston College fans are notorious for traveling poorly. That factor may have played a key role when the Eagles were skipped over for the more prestigious Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta.

Where would you rather be?

If you’re BC, you’d rather be at the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Boston College blew its shot at a BCS bowl berth when it lost the ACC championship game to Virginia Tech. The loss stung even more when the Chick-fil-A Bowl committee opted to invite Clemson instead of Boston College, even though BC had the better record.

Several BC players have admitted to being disappointed with their bowl situation. Fans who might have gone to this game might not now because they already traveled to Florida for the ACC title game in Jacksonville just a few weeks ago.

As for Michigan State, it is just loving the opportunity to be back in a bowl game. The Spartans last played in the 2003 Alamo Bowl. One of the first orders of business for head coach Mark Dantonio when he arrived in East Lansing was to get back to a bowl game.

When MSU last traveled to Orlando for the 2000 Citrus Bowl, it exceeded its ticket allotment of 12,000. The Spartans think they’ll exceed that again this year by a long shot.

Important stats you may have overlooked
Boston College ranks first in the nation in rush defense with 68.1 rush yards against per game. That’s important because Michigan State has a strong one-two punch in the backfield with Jehuu Caulcrick (21 touchdowns) and Javon Ringer (1,346 yards).

BC ranks fifth in the nation in passes intercepted with 21. That’s important because Michigan State QB Brian Hoyer only threw seven interceptions all season.

Boston College ranks sixth in the nation in passing offense with 329.7 yards per game. That’s important because Michigan State has one of the most intimidating pass rushes in the nation. The Spartans rank 12th in the country in sacks and 13th in tackles for loss.

Michigan State averages over 200 yards on the ground and 200 yards through the air. The Spartans also led the Big Ten in scoring offense with 34.1 points per game. That’s important because BC’s overall defense ranks 25th in the nation. The Spartans are going to need to switch gears throughout the game if they hope to win.

Michigan State ranks 18th in the country with 5.33 penalties per game. The Spartans only committed seven offsides all season thanks to Dantonio’s commitment to reducing penalties this year. That’s important because BC ranks 92nd in the country with 7.15 penalties per game.

The quarterbacks

At the start of the season, MSU’s Brian Hoyer looked a lot like a guy in his first year as starter. His timing was off with his receivers and he threw some errant passes that left viewers wondering who his intended target was.

As the season wore on, however, Hoyer became much more comfortable in the pocket. In his final two games he had better than a 70-percent completion mark against both Purdue and Penn State. He threw for six touchdowns and over 500 yards combined in those games, so he should have some added confidence coming into the Champ Sports Bowl. Hoyer doesn’t have great speed, so BC defenders don’t really have to worry about him tucking and running it at them, but he doesn’t really have to with MSU’s strong running game.

There is some talk of BC’s Matt Ryan going first overall in the NFL draft this year. He certainly has the size at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds. He also has the passing yards with over 4,000 this season, along with 28 touchdowns. And when it comes to flat-out arm strength, there probably isn’t anyone in college who can throw to the opposite field across his body the way Ryan can.

The problem with Ryan is turnovers. He has a bad habit of throwing ugly interceptions and being careless with the ball. He has 18 interceptions this season and that’s something he’ll need to cut down on to make it as a pro. Still, Ryan is a winner, which many saw when he led the Eagles to a thrilling comeback in the rain against Virginia Tech earlier in the season.

Total watch

Michigan State was one of the best over bets in the nation this season with an over/under record of 10-3. Eight of the last nine Spartans games also played over, but that was against lower totals often seen in the Big Ten. The highest total Michigan State saw all year was 62 ½ against Indiana; the lowest was 44 points against Notre Dame.

The number of 56 is the fourth-highest total the Spartans have seen this season.

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Michigan State:
6-16 ATS off a conference game
6-16 ATS off BB games with combined scores of 60+ points

Boston College:
12-4 Under playing on grass fields
21-9 Under away off an ATS loss

TCU:
10-1 ATS off BB conference wins
16-5 ATS after having 275+ rushing yards

Houston:
6-0 Under off an ATS loss
6-0 Under away off a combined score of 60+ points

Maryland:
17-3 Under after scoring 37+ points
14-4 Under after committing 0 turnovers

Oregon State:
10-2 ATS off a conference win by 7 or less points
12-3 ATS off BB conference games

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[Raji]

After being involved in the BCS conversation for much of 2007, 10-3 Boston College settles for a Champs Sports Bowl berth vs. a 7-5 Michigan State team that rallied for wins it its two games to secure the same bid. There is still a lot at stake for the Eagles though, namely a seven game bowl winning streak. All of those came under former head man Tom O’Brien, so they will be looking to start a new tradition of postseason success under Jeff Jagodzinski. Boston College is led by senior QB Matt Ryan, who helped the team surpass the 350-yard mark in passing six times in its 13 games. Michigan State’s strength is running the ball, 45 times per game for 200.3 YPG. That attack goes head-to-head with the Eagles defensive strength, which allowed a paltry 2.2 yards per carry and finished number one in the country in yards allowed at 68.1 per game. The Spartans are playing in their first bowl game since 2003.

BOSTON COLLEGE
Led by the No.1 NFL quarterback prospect in the college game in Matt Ryan and the nation’s No.1 run defense, the Eagles will attempt to extend the nation’s longest bowl winning streak to eight with a triumph over the Spartans in Mickey Mouse town. The 6’5”, 220-lbs Ryan has thrown for 4,258 yards and 28 TD’s—both school records—and has registered nine 300-yard passing games this season. He’s joined in B.C.’s backfield by unsung senior tailback Andre Callender, who rushed for 936 yards and nine scores this season while also snaring 72 passes for 704 additional yards and four TD’s. In addition to Callender, Ryan has three other trusty receivers in sophomore Rich Gunnell (68 receptions in 2007), junior Brandon Robinson (52 catches) and senior Kevin Challenger (44 catches). The Eagles have soared to 15-6 ATS record when playing team with a winning record.

The defense has its share of playmakers too, most notably senior All-American free safety Jamie Silva. The 5’11”, 210-lbs Silva is as tough as $2 steak. Despite playing the second half with a fractured left foot, Silva managed a team-leading115 tackles and six interceptions. The other primary ballhawk on the Eagles’ defense is sophomore linebacker Mark Herzlich (86 tackles in 2007). Boston College plays a soft zone pass defense that was ranked 104th in the country, surrendering 263.4 YPG. Teams have used this against the Eagles and helps explain why they are 2-5 ATS in this price range.

MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans are going to Disney World with a potent and balanced offense (34.1 PPG), directed by first-year starter Brian Hoyer (2,594 yards passing, 18 TD’s, seven INT’s in 2007). His favorite target is junior wideout Devin Thomas, who will likely turn pro after this game’s final gun. Thomas, who has caught 75 balls for 1,226 yards and eight TD’s this season, could go as early as the second round of the NFL draft this spring. The “Thunder” and “Lightning” ground attack of Jehuu Caulcrick (813 rushing yards, 21 TDs’) and Javon Ringer (1,346 yards, six TD’s) is a major headache for most defensive coordinators to contain. Michigan State is only 6-16 ATS after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Michigan State’s defense isn’t exactly the second coming of the Steel Curtain, but rather a high-risk, high-reward type of unit. The headliner was defensive end Jonal Saint-Dic (10 sacks, eight forced fumbles), who is now ineligible academically. Freshman All-American linebacker Greg Jones (team-high 73 tackles) will be left to lead nation’s 39th ranked defense. If Jones doesn’t bring opposing players to the ground, then chances are that junior cornerback Kendell Davis (72 tackles), senior free safety Travis Key (66 stops) or senior linebacker Kaleb Thornhill (59 tackles) will. The Spartans are 3-15 ATS when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards per attempt.

GAME FOCUS
Both Boston College and Michigan State have the offensive firepower to make this a wildly entertaining game. The Eagles, a team that opened the season 8-0 and was ranked as high as No.2 in the land prior to upset losses to Florida State and Maryland, has to be somewhat disappointed to be here and not at some higher-tier bowl. The large key to the game is whether the Spartans’ powerful running game, which averages over 200 yards per game, can move the ball against Boston College’s stout run defense. Michigan State needs to run the ball in order to keep the sticks moving and to keep Ryan, who will be auditioning for a bevy of NFL scouts in this game, off the field as much as possible. Coach Mark Dantonio might eschew the run in the first quarter and attack vulnerable Eagles secondary. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS as underdogs. In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, it’s hard to bet against the Eagles, especially with no DE like Saint-Dic, a team with a future millionaire under center and with a recent history of winning bowl games.


Betting Notes – This has become a confusing ACC-Big Ten contest for underdog bettors. Most dog players were disappointed to see the Spartans open as 2.5-point underdogs, hoping to get more value. The line moved to the magic number of three and the trend was towards the number going higher at Sportsbook.com and other betting outlets. The loss of “Sack Master” Jonal Saint-Dic, can’t be properly accounted for, thus Eagles backers became more comfortable take B.C. as the number has moved to four. Boston College recent bowl history is well-documented, while the Spartans are 5-8 ATS in recent bowl trips and 4-4 ATS as bowl pooch. Big Ten teams listed as dogs are 20-9-1 ATS, when opponent is off a loss. The former Tangerine Bowl have not been exciting since changing to current sponsor five years ago, with average winning margin being 22.2 points a game.

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