Az St vs Texas Service Plays

[Bobby O'Shea]

Andy Iskoe:
Dec 27 Holiday Bowl 4*Arizona State











Vegas Hotsheet:
0~2 last night
HOLIDAY BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
403 Texas 38
404 Arizona 20
TEXAS -2½

FREE PICK: UNDER 62













ErockMoney

12/27 - Holiday - Arizona St (+2.5) v. Texas

l love the Sun Devils in this game. Texas had a terrible season on and off the field and don't expect them to be focused on this matchup. Arizona St. will have the crowd and play strong under legendary coach Erickson.

Pick: Arizona St. by 4

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 4th)











THE SPORTS MEMO


Arizona State vs. Texas -2 O/U 61 Recommendation: Over
Thursday, December 27, 8 pm EST (ESPN) San Diego, Calif

The PAC-10 has the worst bowl affiliations of any major conference.
The second, third and fourth place teams from the Big Ten
all play on New Year’s Day in desirable locations: Tampa Bay, Orlando
and Pasadena. The fifth team from the SEC, Arkansas, plays
in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day. But in the PAC-10, the second
place team plays in the Holiday Bowl on a Thursday Night just after
Christmas in December. There’s no question that Arizona State, as
a team, is extremely disappointed in this bid. The Sun Devils were
penalized for the Fiesta Bowl’s location in Tempe, otherwise they
would likely have earned a BCS Bowl bid in their home city. But economic
concerns (tourists spend more local dollars than residents)
forced the Fiesta Bowl to look elsewhere, allowing the Rose Bowl to
pick Illinois as an at-large team, leaving Dennis Erickson’s squad in
San Diego over the holidays. San Diego certainly isn’t a bad place
to be in late December, but it’s certainly not an exotic or enticing
location for a PAC-10 school. That’s just one of the reasons why the
Holiday Bowl has been an underdog bettor’s dream over the last
decade. Qualcomm Stadium seems to be a place where favorites
come to lose. The favorite in this bowl is just 1-8 ATS in its nine-year
existence, with five favorites losing outright and three more winning
in tight fashion. Cal became the first favorite ever to cover the
spread in this bowl last year, whipping Texas A&M 45-10. If Arizona
State overcomes the disappointment of their BCS Bowl snub and
comes to play, they are surely the better of these two teams, capable
of winning by margin. The Sun Devils thrived on adversity all
year, rallying back repeatedly from early deficits. Quarterback Rudy
Carpenter thrived under Erickson’s tutelage, completing 63% of his
passes with a 23-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio while throwing for more than
3,000 yards. Leading rusher Keegan Herring struggled down the
stretch after his counterpart, Ryan Torain, was lost with a season
ending injury, but he still averaged just shy of 5.5 yards per carry.
And we’d be remiss if we failed to mention frosh kicker Thomas
Weber, who converted on 22 of his 23 field goal tries, including a
perfect six-for-six from outside 40 yards. Weber’s foot is a major
reason why Arizona State averaged more than 30 points per game
in PAC-10 play this year. And with a defense that allowed more than
20 points only three times all season, Arizona State didn’t blow a
single lead all season, they were simply outplayed in both of their
losses (USC and Oregon). Texas wasn’t very good this year, right
from the start. They were resilient, rallying from behind to earn key
late season wins against Nebraska and Oklahoma State on consecutive
weeks, but their defense really fell apart down the stretch, particularly
against the pass. The Longhorns allowed more than 1,500
passing yards in their final four games, giving up more than nine
yards per pass attempt during that span. Quarterback Colt McCoy
is certainly capable of stellar big game performances, and this bowl
has a history of wild shootouts. Expect another wild game this year.











NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS ( 6-1 SO FAR ) -->. 3-1 SIDES/ 3-0 TOTALS

ARIZONA ST (10-2) TEXAS (9-3)
HOLLIDAY BOWL

This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/’95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18’ in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns’ HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns’ faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp’s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD’s, incl TY’s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY’s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson’s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU’s OL avg 6’5” 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr’s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU’s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6’3” 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.8)
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6’5’’ 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6’6’’ 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6’4’’ 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6’3’’ 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all’g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all’g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC’s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2*



Bobby O

[Bobby O'Shea]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA
BEST BET
ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 11

At the end of his first season with the Sun Devils, head coach Dennis Erickson takes one
of the nation’s most upperclassmen-laden teams into a state that 41 players on his roster
called home before they packed up and moved to Tempe, AZ. Most of those kids
were from the Southern California area, where three Texas players are from. Longhorns’
head coach Mack Brown has declared Texas’ bowl practices and the game as “all starting
jobs open” season, which will draw some attention Texas’ way. Maybe it should,
maybe it shouldn’t. Texas is 0-3 ATS in Holiday Bowls under Brown, all against Pac 10
opponents. When Texas is playing in the Holiday Bowl, Texas has had an unfulfilling season
and “all starting jobs are open” for the next. That’s how a coach sustains a highlevel
program expected to compete for national championships every year. We played
successfully on South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier and a similar “all jobs open” edict in a
bowl last season, but Spurrier’s opponent was from Conference USA. If Brown is holding
open auditions with only 41 upperclassmen on the roster and three key seniors
among 18 unavailable (center Dallas Griffin, left tackle Tony Hill, WR Limas Sweed) then
Erickson’s 55 Pac 10 upperclassmen (31 juniors, 24 seniors) would appear to have an
edge. Arizona State leads the nation in Time of Possession (33:56), while the Texas
defense allowed 533, 476 and 594 yards in its last three outings and was the culprit
when the Texas A&M offense played a 40-20 minute game of hide the piggie against
the Longhorns. ARIZONA STATE, 37-26









WINNING POINTS

HOLIDAY BOWL
(December 27 at San Diego)
ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 5
We were surprised when Texas was opened as the favorite in this game, and then
even more surprised when the early money went in the Longhorn direction. But
reputations can be a difficult thing to change, which means that a program that has
been in serious decline since Vince Young left continues to be regarded as one that
rates among the nation’s elite. Part of that, of course, is because Texas still managed
a 9-3 campaign, but it was a precarious tight rope – the Longhorns were 3-0 in
games decided by three points or less. In Jamal Charles they have one of the most
under-rated RB’s in the nation, but QB Colt McCoy lacks the arm strength to
attack defenses vertically, and a quick Sun Devil unit is difficult to move the ball
against if you are trying to make things happen underneath. The real problem for
Texas is a pass defense that was abysmal down the stretch. They finished 109th in
passing yards allowed, and over the last three games gave up a horrific 1,573 yards
and 13 touchdowns through the air, while getting only three interceptions. That
means ample opportunity for Rudy Carpenter (#1 in the Pac 10 in passing efficiency)
to attack, and we anticipate a special hunger from the Sun Devils to cap
their turnaround season under Dennis Erickson in style. This opponent, despite
being favored, is not all that much in their way. ARIZONA STATE 33-28.












POINTWISE ( 0-7 SO FAR !!!!!!!!!!!)

HOLIDAY ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4


AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas .......... 41.6 .. 36-25 .. 23-21 .. 200- 99 ... 262-276.. - 3 . Texas
Arizona St .. 43.3 .. 32-20 .. 22-18 .. 151-107 .. 259-232.. + 7 . by 3.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 4th time in 8 years, the Longhorns of Texas return to the Holiday Bowl.
Vince Young, of course, took them to a pair of Rose Bowls, with 11-1 & 13-0
marks, the 2nd of which won for them the National Title. Since his departure,
Mack Brown's team has compiled a 19-6 log. A mark that the vast majority of
squads would cherish, but not up to their combined record of 56-8, the previous
4 seasons. They again rank among the elite squads in moving the ball,
finishing in the 12th spot in total offense, & 19th in scoring. RB Charles has
been their "go-to" man, finishing the regular season with 1,458 yds (6.3 ypr),
along with 18 TDs. But altho QB McCoy has thrown for 3,129 yds (64.9%) &
21 TDs, he has also tossed a co-Big 12 leading 18 interceptions. And check
the 'Horns allowing 35.2 ppg over their final 4 games. They are, of course, a
bowl season fixture, with this marking their 46th such contest, & in recent
years, jumping on the underdog has proven profitable, with the pup covering 7
of their last 8 holiday games. The Sun Devils of Arizona State had Rose Bowl
dreams as late as the final week of the season, but it wasn't to be. Dennis
Erickson inherited 16 starters from LY's 7-6 bowl team, & broke to an 8-0 start,
climbing to the 6th spot in the nation, before a loss to Oregon, despite a 489-
400 yd edge. Carpenter would rank 15th among the nation's QBs at season's
end, with 3,015 yds (63%), 23 TDs, & 8 INTs. Defensively, only 2 teams topped
146 RYs vs the Devils, who ranked 13th vs the run. Neither team did much
down the stretch, with the Suns entering on at 0-4 ATS, & the 'Horns at 1-3-1.
Holiday Bowls sure have seen their share of wild games. More of the same.
PROPHECY: ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4














ALLEN EASTMEN (1-6 SO FAR)

Holiday Bowl
M/L $400/$468 Take #404 Arizona State Sun Devils M/L over Texas Longhorns. (Thursday, December 27, 8:00 pm EST).














Norm Hitzges ( 2-2)

Arizona State +2.5 vs Texas

Arizona St/Texas Over














MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-1 SO FAR

Holiday Bowl
Arizona st by 1











Ny Post
Tim Sullivan 1-5 Bowl Record
Arizona State

Hondo 2-4 Bowl Record
Arizona State

Mighty Quinn
2~5 in bowls
Texas - 2 1/2

Wild Bill
Arizona State +2 (3 units) Sun Devils primed to win straight up vs banged up Horns


Alot of plays on the Sun Devils maybe a good day to fade!!

Bobby O