Early Line Moves

[Raji]

Last weekend was a decent one for the early steam moves, as the initial line movements posted a 4-3 mark against the spread. However, over the past three weeks the record for the early sharp action is just 8-12 ATS. That means it’s been profitable playing against the sharps recently, but I, personally, am still waiting for a bit more data before I start blindly betting against the Monday movements.

Here are the spreads that have seen the most early week variance:

Florida State at Wake Forest (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 11)
Open: Florida State -3.5.
Current: Florida State -6.0.

The luster has clearly worn off on the Deacons. Wake Forest is now a home underdog after its less-than-impressive win over lowly Duke last Saturday. However, FSU wasn’t exactly stellar while holding off N.C. State. Wake Forest won 30-0 in Tallahassee last season and it was its first win over the Seminoles since 1973. Looks like the books are expecting revenge, but can you really trust Xavier Lee laying points on the road?

Cincinnati over Louisville (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Open: Cincinnati -7.5.
Current: Cincinnati -10.0.

The Bearcats have been the best bet in college football this season, posting a 5-0 ATS record. Conversely, the Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation, losing four of out of five against the number and three out of five overall. I guess it’s safe to say that the players haven’t taken to Steve Kragthorpe. The defense can’t stop anyone but the Cards are 7-2 ATS against the Bearcats.

Oklahoma State at Nebraska (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Open: Nebraska -7.0.
Current: Nebraska -4.0.

Good ol’ Bill Callahan. The man never met a Big Game that he couldn’t have his team unprepared for – with last weekend’s 41-6 whitewashing in Missouri as the latest example. Now Bill gets to come home to an angry fan base and try to take on an OSU team that the Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS against over the last five seasons. Nebraska hasn’t played well since early September, and the Big 12 South still owns this conference, so laying any points in this one could be dicey.

Connecticut at Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Open: Virginia -6.5.
Current: Virginia -3.5.

My friend Nolan has a firm rule when betting any college sport – always take a Big East team over an ACC team, in any sport. I don’t have any solid numbers for you but I can say without question it’s been one of the most profitable systems I’ve ever played. Clearly I’m not the only one.

Indiana at Michigan State (7:00 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Open: Michigan State -7.5.
Current: Michigan State -5.0.

The Hoosiers have been playing inspired ball all season and have been one of the best stories in college football. They’ve also been one of the best bets in the business, and are facing a team they put a 25-point beat down on last year. However, the Spartans have won eight of 10 in this series and are 4-1 ATS recently.


Central Florida at South Florida (12:00 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Open: South Florida -14.0.
Current: South Florida -11.5.

This is a lot of points for what is becoming a heated rivalry. USF is 2-0 straight up and ATS over the past two meetings and the Knights are horrendous against the Big East, posting a 1-10 ATS mark. These are two very physical squads and I’m looking for a grinder here. Also, the Bulls have a crucial Thursday game at Rutgers lurking so their heads may not be 100 percent in this game. That is, until Central Florida punches them in the face.

Raji