 adapting to the new rule
Fans and bettors don’t always look for the same thing in a football game. Fans want excitement and close games, while bettors prefer predictable results. Unfortunately, when it comes to change, the NCAA rules committee only listens to the fans.
The committee decided that too many kickoffs were resulting in touchbacks, so they moved the tee back five yards this year. They thought that more returns would equate with more excitement. So far, they’ve been proven correct.
There were nine kickoffs returned for touchdowns in Week 4 and six a week later. That is leaving special teams coaches nationwide scrambling to solidify their kickoff coverage units.
The rule change leaves college bettors a little in the dark as well. Statistics for kickoff returns and starting field position are available. However, with different schools adopting different strategies, it’s difficult to quantify a team’s advantage or disadvantage on kickoffs.
“The problem is, we don’t have the proper data,” says Covers Expert David Malinsky. “Box scores can tell us where a team fields a kickoff and where a team starts each drive, but they don’t tell us whether it was a direct kick to the 5-yard line or if it was a squib kick that bounced and rolled its way there.”
Luckily, as Malinsky points out, bettors aren’t the only people left scratching their heads. The guys setting the lines are hesitant to fiddle with their formulas just because of the new kickoff rule.
“We haven’t made much of an adjustment, really,’ says John Avello, director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas. “If you get a slow team matched up against a team with speed, it’s already factored into the line. But you can’t anticipate kickoff return touchdowns when setting odds.”
Maybe not, but the numbers say you can anticipate slightly better field position for both teams all season.
Bettors should note the schools that exceed the national norms on returns. Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach suggests how he might adjust his expectations for such a team against an opponents struggling on kickoff coverage.
“Say the average kickoff return is 20 yards,” he says. “If your team averages 30 yards per return and the opponent gives up an average of 34, you could assume that 32 per return would be the result.
“Say the expected number of kickoffs in the game was five, than you could say 60 extra yards (five kickoffs at 12 extra yards per return) should result. That could result in an additional field goal or touchdown, so you could cut it in the middle and say it is worth five points.”
Raw numbers, however, can’t account for all of the different kickoff strategies. Bettors who watch as many games as possible will have an idea of which schools are exploiting the new rule and which are struggling to adapt. But even then, the proof will be too anecdotal to actually quantify a team’s advantage.
Take the Week 4 showdown between the California Golden Bears and Oregon Ducks as an example. Oregon refused to kick the ball deep to Cal’s dangerous return men, opting instead for squib kicks and pooch kicks.
"Cal's return teams have been very dangerous," head coach Mike Bellotti explained to The Oregonian after the game. "We wanted to disrupt the timing. I think we gave up a little bit of field position, but very few long returns - in fact, no long returns - that was the goal."
As a result, Cal’s average starting field position was the 37-yard line. The Bears only covered 66 yards on their longest scoring drive of the game.
The fact that kickers can no longer avoid dangerous return men by blasting kickoffs over their heads definitely gives teams with good return games an advantage.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of those teams, thanks to using their featured running backs as return men.
"We always take the ball when we win the toss because we just feel like we won't start on the 20 (yard line),” Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt admitted. “We'll start on the 30 or more. That's one first down. You win field position right off the bat."
Felix Jones, Arkansas’ No. 1 return option, now refers to kickoffs as “another source of offense” according to the Denver Post. Purdue Boilermakers head coach Joe Tiller would agree with Jones’ assessment.
“Balls aren't being driven into the end zone the way they were in the past,” he told the Post. “Cover teams are further away from the guy catching the ball. With the timing of the kick, the return is more critical than it used to be.”
However, if the return men have had an early advantage after the rule change, it won’t take long for kickoff coverage units to catch up. Tiller has already loaded his kickoff coverage unit with starters after realizing that some of his younger players were over their heads in today’s more complicated coverage schemes.
We’re left with a scenario in which speedy, shifty teams have an even bigger edge over their slower opponents, but we don’t know how long that edge will last. Oddsmakers aren’t accounting specifically for the new kickoff rule in their lines, so bettors who devise a way to put points on a team’s kickoff advantage might be ahead of the game.
As always, feedback is welcomed and appreciated, especially from football bettors who have paid attention to the new rule and used it to their advantage.
Raji | 
Linear Mode
