Thursday night Info

[Raji]

The matchup: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Boise State Broncos

Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. ET from Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho

The line: Boise State -10 ½, total 49 ½ points

Weather forecast: There’s no chance of rain in Boise and the southeast wind won’t top 5 mph. The temperature will start in the mid-70s at kickoff and steadily drop to the low 60s through the game.

Key injuries

Southern Miss: Offensive guard Ryan Hebert has returned to full-speed drills but remains doubtful for Thursday. Nose tackle Sean Merrill sat out Tuesday’s practice with a strained back but will play. Freshman linebacker Martez Smith will miss one more game due to suspension.

Boise State: The Broncos missed a pair of starters in their last game against Wyoming, receiver Vinny Peretta and linebacker David Shields. Both are probable starters for Thursday.

Three reasons why Southern Miss could cover:

1. The Eagles’ Young man is maturing: Quarterback Jeremy Young is fresh off his biggest clutch performance since toppling Houston at home last year. Young led a comeback win at East Carolina with 237 passing yards and a pair of one-yard scoring runs. Young’s continued improvement keeps opposing defenses from keying on sophomore tailback Damion Fletcher.

2. Boise State’s offense isn’t ticking: The Broncos hung points on all takers in recent years, culminating in last year’s 43-42 upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. They’ve played two FBS (Division I-A) opponents this year and struggled offensively in both, committing four turnovers at Washington and scoring only 24 points at home against Wyoming in Week 3. It was their first home game scoring less than 41 points since October 2005.

3. Strength in the front seven: Southern Mississippi came into the 2007 campaign with what was reputed to be C-USA’s top defensive line and and top group of linebackers. The team’s numbers took a hit against Tennessee, but in the Eagles’ other two games, no opposing runner topped 45 yards on the ground.

Three reasons why Boise State could cover:

1. The Broncos excel on the Smurf Turf: Boise State is 21-1 SU and 12-6-1 ATS at Bronco Stadium since the start of the 2004 season, with the only SU loss being its MPC Computers Bowl defeat to Boston College in 2005. The Broncos have won 18 straight regular season home games by a touchdown or more.

2. Southern Miss is a bad road doggie: The Golden Eagles have won five games away from Hattiesburg since the start of the 2006 season, but were favored in all of those wins. They’ve been a road underdog five times over the same span and have gone 0-5 SU and ATS in those games.

3. Boise State continues to smother the run: No matter how much Young has improved, the Golden Eagles make hay with its running game, which runs into a defensive buzz saw on Thursday. Boise State held eight opponents under 100 rushing yards last year and the Broncos are up to the same tricks in 2007, holding Wyoming to 35 yards on 24 carries in their last game Sept. 15.

Cool stat of the day

Preseason Heisman Trophy hopeful Ian Johnson has been held under 100 rushing yards in two straight games. The last time that happened (against Utah and Louisiana Tech a year ago), Johnson rebounded with back-to-back 180-plus yard games. Johnson also reached the end zone four times in each of his rebound games.

Boise State center Jeff Cavender promised Johnson a 150-yard, three-touchdown game against the Eagles, according to the Jackson Clarion-Ledger.

Key quote

“From what I’ve been looking at, (Boise State’s All-American left tackle Ryan Clady is) beatable," Eagles defensive end Robert Henderson told the Hattiesburg American.

“I think you can beat him with speed. He's a big guy, so if you go in there and let him get his hands on you, you're really not going to get too much off him. If you beat him with speed and be more finesse than him, he's beatable.”

"That's on both sides. Both of their tackles look beatable to me. They’re good, but everybody can be beat."

Covers.com pick: Golden Eagles +10 ½

Raji