Betting the draft

[Raji]

The Finals are but a dreary memory now and the NBA Draft on June 28 promises to freshen up a league suffering from mustiness.



The draft can determine a team’s fortunes for years to come and can pad bettors’ bankrolls in the meantime.



Ohio State’s Greg Oden and Texas' Kevin Durant will go No. 1 and No. 2 to the Portland Trail Blazers and Seattle SuperSonics respectively. The odds on them suiting up for another team next season (+1200 for both) underline that it’s not worth your while to speculate on their destinations.



The intrigue is found in the rest of the first round. Let’s try to make some sense of the draft picture and pinpoint where the betting value lies.



Odds courtesy Sportsbook.com and SPORTSBETTING.com.



Draft order (lottery only): No. 1 Portland; 2 Seattle; 3 Atlanta Hawks; 4 Memphis Grizzlies; 5 Boston Celtics; 6 Milwaukee Bucks; 7 Minnesota Timberwolves; 8 Charlotte Bobcats; 9 Chicago Bulls; 10 Sacramento Kings; 11 Atlanta Hawks; 12 Philadelphia 76ers; 13 New Orleans Hornets; 14 Los Angeles Clippers.



The next best thing: Nos. 3 through 7



Al Horford, Florida – Pick: No. 3 (9-5)

Mike Conley Jr., Ohio State – Pick: No. 4 (6-1)

Brandan Wright, North Carolina – Pick: No. 5 (9-2)

Yi Jianlin, China – Pick: No. 6 (3-1)

Corey Brewer, Florida – Pick: No. 7 (5-1)



Hawks GM Billy Knight loves to pass on quality point guards despite his team’s needs and looks to do it again this year. Horford goes No. 3 even though Conley’s a strong man at the point.



The Grizzlies also need a PG, meaning there’s value in Conley to go No. 4. Memphis has a two-headed general manager at the moment, however, with Chris Wallace being groomed to replace Jerry West, so the pick is less predictable than might be expected.



Boston has talked to Minnesota about trading for Kevin Garnett, a hypothetical deal that would surely include the No. 5 pick. That makes things tricky. Wright has tons of potential, Brewer’s a versatile winner and teams fall over themselves to pick “the next Dirk Nowitzki,” a role played by Yi this year.



As such, it’s nigh-impossible to recommend a No. 5 pick, but I would recommend avoiding the “field” option with all of these guys. The order is tricky, but nearly all NBA teams have them as the Nos. 3 through 7 picks in one form or another.



The schools who ruled



Florida and Ohio State met in college hoops’ top game this past April and they’ll each feature prominently in the NBA Draft in June.



Florida Gators drafted in the first round – Pick: under 3.5 (-200)



Brewer, Horford and Joakim Noah are lottery picks. Taurean Green was a point guard on a two-time NCAA champ and Chris Richard has size and hops, but neither is likely to crack the first round.



Draft order of Florida’s Big Three – Pick: Horford first, Brewer second, Noah third (2-5)



It’s the order seen in virtually every mock draft you can find, hence the unattractive odds. Big Al’s going first, so Horford-Noah-Brewer at 12-1 is the only other decent option.



Brewer-Horford-Noah at 11-10 likely has the least value among the available options.



Ohio State Buckeyes drafted in the first round – Pick: under 2.5 (+135)



While oddsmakers seem to assume someone will take a chance on Daequan Cook, the swingman disappeared during the Buckeyes’ late-season run and didn’t hit double-digit points in any of OSU’s 10 games in March and April. Here’s guessing a lot of NBA personnel were watching those games.



My conference is more depleted than yours!



Big 12 players drafted in the first round – Pick: over 3 (-160)



Durant, Julian Wright from Kansas and Acie Law from Texas A&M are sure things, so the under is a no-go.



Someone might gamble early on Mario Boggan or JamesOn Curry from Oklahoma State, but setting the number at 3 has “push” written all over it.



SEC players drafted in the first round – Pick: over 4.5 (even)



Florida’s Big Three are locks. The other Gators are not, but add LSU’s Glen Davis, Vanderbilt’s Derrick Byars and Alabama’s Jermareo Davidson to the mix and the value is on the over again.



ACC players drafted in the first round – Pick: over 5.5 (-200)



I know, I know. Pick too many overs and you end up with an overcrowded first round. The oddsmakers are right to expect six or more first-rounders from the ACC, though.



Wright is going in the top seven, and Georgia Tech’s Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young, Florida State’s Al Thornton and former Boston College shot-blocker Sean Williams will join him in the first round.



After that, one or more of BC’s Jared Dudley, Duke’s Josh McRoberts and Virginia Tech’s Zabian Dowdell look likely to crack Round 1 too.



PAC 10 players drafted in the first round – Pick: under 3.5 (+135)



Spencer Hawes from Washington and USC’s Nick Young are going high.



One of USC’s Gabe Pruitt, UCLA’s Aaron Afflalo and Arizona’s Marcus Williams is likely to join the pair in the first round, but will two of them do so?



Big 12 vs. PAC 10: Most players drafted in the first round – Pick: PAC 10 -0.5 (-170)



The Big 12 has three guaranteed first-rounders, but they could be the only players from the conference taken in the entire draft. The PAC 10 only has two first-round locks, but has more players on the cusp.



Even though I took the Pac 10 under 3.5 above, they have a far better chance of having four first-round picks than the Big 12 does.

Raji