oddsmakers shy

[Raji]

Baby steps: Oddsmakers shy about hiking Spurs-Jazz total
Fri, May 25, 2007By Tim Roberts

Both the San Antonio Spurs and the Utah Jazz have taken turns lighting each other up in the Western Conference finals, usually on either side of the halftime break.

As a result, Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio both played well over the totals offered by sportsbooks. Oddsmakers, however, aren’t ready to label the series an offensive slugfest yet.

The total for tonight's Game 3 in Salt Lake City sits at 190 points despite both games in Texas playing over 200 in regulation time.

“It’s a key game, being the first in a new venue, and it’ll weigh heavily on the rest of the series as far as totals go,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas.

“We didn’t want to go too high (for the Game 3 total). There’s an expectation, especially among the wiseguys, that it’ll come closer to the numbers we saw in the regular season. We don’t have to go entirely based on results, we have to go on expectations.”

The Jazz have played better defense at home in the postseason and it shows in their over/under (O/U) record. They’ve played over the total in six of eight road games but only twice in their six home games.

Utah allowed the Houston Rockets to score 94.3 points per game in Houston in Round 1, but only 78 at home at EnergySolutions Arena. In Round 2 against the Golden State Warriors, Utah allowed 113 points per game in Oakland but only 104 (in regulation) in Salt Lake City.

As for the visiting Spurs, they’re either picking up their defensive intensity on the road or are more willing to play a slow-down game away from home. San Antonio actually held the Phoenix Suns in Round 2 to 5.2 fewer points per game in Phoenix than they did back home in Texas.

All told, the Spurs are 4-4 O/U at home this postseason but 1-4 O/U on the road.

“It really comes down to what Utah’s going to do to win,” Korner says of the Game 3 total. “Whether they try to crack down on defense or try to outrun (the Spurs), they have to do something different.”

Once Utah reveals its Game 3 plan to make the series competitive, the totals for the rest of the series will be fairly easy for Korner and his crew to set. As far as Game 4 is concerned, oddsmakers will drop the total further for a Game 3 under than they’ll raise it for an over tonight.

“If it comes in low, we’ll likely fall right back to the number we put out for the opener,” Korner says, referring to the 186 1/2-point total bettors faced in Game 1.

“Unless we see a 124-117 score in Game 3, we likely won’t go up any more than two points.”

Game 3 in Salt Lake City tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET tonight.


Raji