Everyone ready for the playoffs? I know I am ! Here are a few articles I found that may be help some people....
After a long 82-game schedule and several exciting playoff seeding races, the NBA’s second season is upon us. For those that believe that “they don’t really play until the playoffs”, this is the best time of the year for pro basketball. Indeed the most intense and important games are yet to come this NBA season. The seedings are set and 16 teams have their eye on the ultimate basketball team prize. With that comes the need for the handicapper to step up his/her game as well if they should hope to succeed over the next two months. While most of the things that the bettor has learned since November will still be beneficial, there is always that extra something that needs to go in to making NBA playoff betting profitable.
Seeing as how the each playoff is a 7-game series between combatants, the art of handicapping the games naturally becomes a little less stat and trend oriented, and more situational. Also, since the intensity plays a greater role in the postseason, understanding a teams motivation or mental state can also be of great value. Barring any major injury, you can often forecast accurately all of the games of a series simply after seeing the game #1 line. This gives you plenty of chance to sort through situational angles and momentum swings that you normally wouldn’t during the regular season. If this isn’t your strong suit and you prefer a statistical brand of handicapping, then series betting may be for you. Of course, understand that compared to hockey, upsets are rare in a NBA playoff series, and as such, the series’ prices are a bit tough to digest.
Winning on a day-to-day basis in the playoffs is attainable so be sure to stay atop of all the available information. The StatFox Super Situations on the FoxSheets can be very helpful as they are updated daily. However, if you’re looking for some more general information that might help you devise an overall strategy this year, the following material should help. It covers a few of the factors that I have found to be influential in the postseason. Seed matchups, a team’s playoff history, and overall team strength indicators to be of great value. In fact, it is not uncommon for someone like myself to “ride” a team that has favorable circumstances in all three factors for the entire duration of the playoffs. In most cases, these solid teams will end up well into profitability during their 15+ game playoff runs. So enjoy the material, which also includes the StatFox predictions for both conferences.
Team Playoff Experience
One of the common complaints of the casual NBA fan is that the same teams or players seem to be in the mix for the title every year. In many ways I can sympathize with this frustration, but from a handicapper’s standpoint, I try to find ways to take advantage of it. Let’s face it, the fans’ complaints have merit. Over the last 11 seasons, the title has been shared among only five teams, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Antonio, and most recently Miami. Of these teams, only the Lakers’ teams of 2000 & 2002 wound up with a record less than .500 against the spread. Furthermore, the Spurs cumulative ATS record in their three title seasons was 41-23, a winning percentage of 64%. Hitting 64% by simply playing the league’s best teams throughout the playoffs rather than guessing from game to game doesn’t seem real difficult.
Perhaps one encouraging aspect heading into the 2007 playoffs is that Miami’s championship run was a rare “upset” if you will in terms of NBA postseason action. While most figure Dallas to be the team to beat, the Heat’s effort from 2006 could play a motivating factor for those clubs currently being viewed as “level 2” teams.
However, still the underlying argument is this, be it the good teams or the bad, experience in the playoffs plays a great role in winning or losing, covering or not covering. Ask yourself these questions: Based on the experience factor, do you see any teams that might be ready to take that “next step”? For me Cleveland comes to mind. Also, are there any teams whose best playoff memories might be behind them? In this case, San Antonio and Miami are candidates. Finally, could any of this year’s teams be overwhelmed by the playoff atmosphere? Golden State and Toronto are the likely suspects. If you recall, Memphis lost its first eight franchise playoff games, and the Raptors and Warriors are making rare postseason appearances.
In summary, looking at a team’s recent playoff history can reveal a lot.
Quantifying Balance & Overall Team Strength
It’s no accident that only five different teams have won titles in 11 years, nor that seven of the last 10 yearly champions have finished.500 ATS or above for that playoff run. In no other sport is the team that wins a championship more championship-caliber than the NBA. The two-month playoff season does a great job of sorting the haves from the have-nots. If there’s a word that comes to mind when describing all of the championship teams that Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, and San Antonio have fielded, it’s balanced. These squads were equally good on both ends of the court. In fact, if you dig deeper and look at the teams that lost in the finals or the conference finals, you’ll find that they were wither balanced but not as good, or they were only dominant on one end of the court. The Suns’ offensive machine of 2005, or the Nets’ offensively starving teams of 2003 & 2004 come to mind.
I’ve found that a great way to quantitatively measure a team’s strength and balance at the same time is by using the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating. Basically, it takes a team’s offensive and defensive points per game averages and cross references them against their previous opponents scored and allowed averages. The better the rating for both offensive and defensive outplay, the better the balance, and the higher the overall rating. You’ll see from the team capsules later that San Antonio, with a +8.2 StatFox Outplay Factor, is better than anyone else by a point, and thus perhaps dismissing them too early would be a mistake.
Highlighting even further how rare Miami’s championship run was a year ago is the fact that the Heat were the first team in the StatFox database, dating back to the ’96-97 season, that won the championship while not finishing in the top 3 of the NBA in StatFox Outplay Factor Rating. In fact, six of the eventual 10 champions during that time span topped the league in StatFox OF.
Here is a look at the summarized results of the top three StatFox Outplay Factor teams from each of the last 10 seasons:
- Six of the last 10 NBA champions ranked #1 in the league in StatFox Outplay Factor Rating heading into the playoffs. Nine of those same 10 ranked in the top 3. Only 2006 Miami did not.
- In seven of the last 10 seasons, the teams ranked in the top 3 in StatFox Outplay Factor Rating finished at or above .500 ATS during their postseason run.
- Overall, the top 3 StatFox OF teams own records of 301-175 SU (63.2%) & 247-218 ATS (53.1%) in the last 10 years of the postseason.
- Throwing out the three rare seasons where the top 3 StatFox OF teams for that year finished under .500 cumulatively, the combined record of the teams jumps to 183-141 ATS, or 56.5%.
You can see that while picking spots can be more lucrative, the concept of “riding” the best teams will at least keep you in the black. Here is a listing of the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for this year’s postseason participants heading into Saturday’s openers. Some of the highlights you’ll find are of course that San Antonio, not Dallas, is ranked #1, while last year’s champs, the Heat, are 16th and last. Chicago is the East’s #1, making for an interesting series matchup vs. Miami.
2007 NBA Playoff Teams StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings
1. SAN ANTONIO +8.2
2. DALLAS +7.2
3. PHOENIX +7.2
4. HOUSTON +5.0
5. CHICAGO +4.6
6. DETROIT +3.8
7. CLEVELAND +3.4
8. UTAH +3.0
9. DENVER +1.6
10. TORONTO +0.7
11. ORLANDO +0.4
12. LA LAKERS +0.2
13. GOLDEN STATE -0.1
14. WASHINGTON -0.7
15. NEW JERSEY -0.9
16. MIAMI -1.1
Playoff Seed Performance
Did you realize that heading into the 2006 playoffs, not a single team seeded 6th through 8th in the Western Conference had won a series in the prior nine years? That trend could go back even longer, but I chose to cut it off in conjunction with the dating of the StatFox database. Think about that. The better seed was 27-0 straight up in series wagers during that time span. Even if you’re laying –450 with a favorite on a bet like that, there would still be plenty of value. Well, the trend officially ended with the 6th seeded Clippers victory over the Nuggets, but in all rights, that wasn’t an upset since Los Angeles held home court advantage for the series, so the “pattern” continues. There simply aren’t that many upsets in the NBA playoffs, particularly in the early rounds. In fact, typically, the only upsets you’ll find will either come from the 6th seed beating the #3 in the East, or from a series where there is just a one seed difference between the clubs. Truthfully, many of those occurrences aren’t even upsets as well, merely a case of a better team being seeded lower by circumstance.
Therefore, if you’re waiting to see Dallas, Phoenix, or San Antonio fall in the first round, you’ll probably be waiting a long time!
Here some trends and records illustrating the series, straight up, and ATS records for the better and lower seeds by round. This should provide some insight as to the chance for upsets along the way. Among the highlights you’ll see that there is little to no statistical value to play blindly by seed against the spread. The one exception of this is to the 2nd seed in the West, who has converted 63.8% ATS vs. the #7 seed. However, the first two rounds in each conference have proven golden for money line bettors when backing the better seeds. Those teams are 65.1% straight up winners in games, and 79.2% winners of series’.
- Lower seeded teams were 34-24 ATS in the 2006 NBA playoffs
- Higher seeded teams win 74.7% of the series’, 62.0% of the games straight up, and 50.4% of the games ATS.
- The best spot to bet a lower seed against the spread has proven to be the Eastern Conference Finals, where they own a 32-24 ATS record, for 57.1%.
Here are the various scenarios with series, straight up, and ATS records:
Eastern Conference First Round
#1 vs. #8: The top seed is 9-1 in series’, 33-12 SU, and 22-21 ATS vs. the #8 seed.
#2 vs. #7: The #2 seed is 9-1 in series’, 33-13 SU, and 22-20 ATS vs. the #7 seed.
#3 vs. #6: The #3 seed is 5-5 in series’, 25-21 SU, and 21-24 ATS vs. the #6 seed.
#4 vs. #5: The #4 seed is 7-3 in series’, 30-22 SU, and 26-26 ATS vs. the #5 seed.
Western Conference First Round
#1 vs. #8: The top seed is 10-0 in series’, 34-12 SU, and 23-23 ATS vs. the #8 seed.
#2 vs. #7: The #2 seed is 10-0 in series’, 34-13 SU, and 30-17 ATS vs. the #7 seed.
#3 vs. #6: The #3 seed is 9-1 in series’, 31-14 SU, and 20-25 ATS vs. the #6 seed.
#4 vs. #5: The #4 seed is 5-5 in series’, 26-20 SU, and 24-22 ATS vs. the #5 seed.
Eastern Conference Second Round
- The better seeds have combined to go 16-4 in series’, 71-41 SU, and 57-53 ATS vs. the lower seeds.
Western Conference Second Round
- The better seeds have combined to go 15-5 in series’, 71-42 SU, and 52-52 ATS vs. the lower seeds.
Eastern Conference Finals
- The better seeds have combined to go 5-5 in series’, 29-31 SU, and 24-32 ATS vs. the lower seeds.
Western Conference Finals
- The better seeds have combined to go 6-4 in series’, 30-26 SU, and 30-24 ATS vs. the lower seeds.
NBA Finals
- The better seeds have combined to go 3-3 in series’, 14-17 SU, and 13-16 ATS vs. the lower seeds. Note, that in four NBA Finals Series', the teams shared the same seed number.
When some NBA teams enter a hostile building, they take strength from the taunts and derisive cheers.
The louder and angrier the crowd, the more likely it is that true road warriors step up their game.
Then there are the teams who genuinely prefer the comforts of home. These guys wilt like a daisy when faced with an unsupportive audience.
We’ll look at both types of road teams with an eye on the NBA playoff picture, especially the opening round.
Top 5 plays on the road
1. Detroit Pistons – Detroit was the best Eastern Conference team on the road, with a 26-14 straight-up (SU) record away from Motown through Wednesday afternoon.
Pistons backers, however, delighted in the team’s awesome 27-13 road mark against the spread (ATS), which included a 12-4 ATS record in the second half.
2. Denver Nuggets – The streaky Nuggets glittered away from high altitudes this season. They ended up 24-15-1 ATS for the season, the best mark in the West.
Denver won and covered in five straight road games to clinch a playoff spot before dropping a meaningless game in Memphis at season’s end. The Nuggets have a killer first-round matchup with the Spurs though.
3. Toronto Raptors – Canada’s only franchise flew under the radar to score the NBA’s best ATS record this season and went 24-17 ATS on the road, a mirror image of its 17-24 SU record away from Toronto.
If the Raptors meet the Wizards in the first round, look out at the Verizon Center.
4. Chicago Bulls – Don’t let the Bulls’ 16-23-1 ATS mark on the road fool you.
Chicago charged up the Central Division standings by excelling as the visitor, going 9-4 SU and ATS away from the Windy City in the second half.
5. Houston Rockets – The Rockets’ 8-6 ATS road mark in the second half isn’t spectacular, but combine it with Utah’s poor home record and Houston doesn’t have a problem anymore.
Houston’s 24-16 SU and 23-17 ATS road marks are both good and look even better with Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming playing at full health.
Top 5 stay-aways on the road
1. New Jersey Nets – The Nets are actually above .500 ATS on the road this season, but they were only 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS on the road in the second half, when they needed every win they could manage.
New Jersey played only six eventual Eastern Conference playoff teams on the road since mid-January. They went 1-5 SU and ATS in those games, beating only the shorthanded Wizards.
2. Utah Jazz – Utah’s season-ending tailspin was so bad that they make this “stay-away” list as well as the “stay-away” list for home teams.
The Jazz were the only team with 45 or more wins in the West with a losing record on the road and went 6-10 SU and ATS away from Salt Lake City in the second half.
3. Los Angeles Lakers – Hmmm, the Lakers make both “stay-away” lists too. Interesting. They were 16-24 SU and 19-20-1 ATS away from L.A. this year, though they were a much safer road bet down the stretch than at home.
The only positive? They’ll be getting quite a few points in the first round and if anyone in the league can keep his team close it’s Kobe Bryant.
4. San Antonio Spurs – You weren’t expecting these guys, were you? Frankly, neither was I, given the team’s experience and superb second-half play.
The Spurs were 8-4 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road after the All-Star break, however, illustrating how often they were favored away from home and couldn’t deliver the goods for backers.
5. Dallas Mavericks – It’s another surprise appearance on the “stay-away” list. The Mavericks’ mediocre 7-7 ATS mark on the road in the second half can likely be explained by their clinching the West’s No. 1 seed so early.
All the same, the Mavs’ first-round opponents will likely get points at home with mighty Dallas visiting. That’s something to watch, especially if the red-hot Golden State Warriors claim the No. 8 spot.
JT
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