I am going to be continuing my discussion of handicapping by trends which we started last week in other threads. As I mentioned, trend handicapping has become a popular item epecially since the advent of technology. The computer boys are happy to live and die by the trend and some have done well. Others, including most of the old school guys, may look at a trend now and then or may totally throw them out as just more meaningless stats. Personally I approach games from a coaching and scouting standpoint which is different than most professional handicappers. It has worked for me and I am sticking to it. I will glance at a trend now and then if I am questioning what I have developed myself, but more often that not I disregard them. However, some have made a good living dealing with computer generated trends and it would be stupid to dismiss them altogether. The problem with trends though is determining which are basically random and which have meaning. And there's the rub friends. That's what a professional has to know how to do.
A good example is Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and the visiting Heat. The Rockets are a mere 2.5 favorite on the overnights and that would probably translate to a pretty low money line price, probably under -200. Here are a few trends (won't bore you with details, just numbers). Looking at these you may be tempted to sell everything you have and put it on the Rockets on the money line. After all, here are some to consider -
a) 56-25 trend since 1996 favoring Rockets on ML
b) 21-7 trend since 1996 favoring Rockets on ML.
c) 30-11 trend since 1996 favoring Rockets on ML.
d) 59-17 trend since 1996 favoring Rockets on ML - 2-1 this year.
e) 24-3 trend since 2003 favoring Rockets on ML
That's 190- 63. I assume we could all live quite comfortably if we could handicap at that pace. But does this justify going out and making a monster bet on Houston? Well, I won't be doing it. But it certainly points you in a direction and maybe I would use the information if I was considering playing the Heat. It would make a compelling reason to swallow that play.
Trends are trends are trends. Some like them - some hate them. You can pay services to deliver every conceivable trend to your computer for every game in every sport. Of course, you still have to figure out how to use them. One more for Wednesday and that involves Toronto. Toronto is giving 3 to Cleveland tomorrow and like Houston, the Raptors are sporting some hefty trends in their favor. How about 50-7, 27-3, 26 - 5 on three different trends since 1996. That's 103-15 and it isn't shabby. It looks like you are looking at another money line that may well be under -200 or in that area. So what do you do? Straight bet, lay the wood, money line parlay? Maybe pass.
We will continue to talk about trends in handicapping in future posts. Visit us a
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