[jtsneaks]

Home teams far from dominate

I'm not sure who is setting the NBA schedule but it would seem logical that the Cleveland/Detroit and Dallas/San Antonio series, which played their Game 2s on Tuesday, would be the ones playing tonight. However, that is not the case. Rather, it's the Miami/New Jersey and Phoenix/Los Angeles series (that's Clippers not Lakers!) listed on Friday's 'board' as well as tonight's TV schedule (TNT).

The Nets host the Heat at 8:00 ET and are favored by 2 1/2 points (188), while the Clippers host the Suns at 10:35 ET as three-point favorites (215 1/2). Saturday's schedule shows Detroit at Cleveland (5:00 ET on ESPN) and San Antonio at Dallas (8:00 ET on ABC). The Pistons are favored by four points (186 1/2) and the Mavs are favored by three points (186 1/2). Sunday's schedule has the Heat/Nets at 3:30 ET on ABC and Suns/Clippers at 8:05 ET on TNT, in two Game 4s.

Five of the eight second round games have been decided by 12 points or more (four by at least 22 points!) with six of the eight games going "over' the total. That continues an over trend that's seen 15 of the last 18 playoff games soar over the total. Home teams are 5-3 to open the second round (3-5 ATS) and "zig-zaggers" are now a perfect 4-0 in the second round after closing the first round on an 0-8 ATS run.

Three of the four series are tied at 1-all after two games with only the Pistons owning a 2-0 lead (over the Cavs). Oddsmakers had Detroit as about a 20-to-1 favorite to win its series over Cleveland while Miami, Phoenix and San Antonio all opened as around 2-to-1 favorites over New Jersey, the LA Clippers and Dallas, respectively. If you want Detroit over Cleveland now, all you have to do is lay about 70-to-1. The 'take-back' on Cleveland is about 35-to-1.

While the Nets have 'stolen' the home court edge from the Heat, Miami is still a favorite in the series, at about minus-$1.45. However, that's not the case in the two Western Conference series. The Clippers are now favored to win their series over the Suns (approximately minus-$1.25) and the Mavs are now favored to beat the defending champs in their series, by about minus-$1.45.


JT Sneaks