Here is an article I found I thought I would post first....
Miami Heat are cooling down
The Miami Heat are the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They were the #1 seed last year, taking the eventual Eastern Conference champions, Detroit, to seven games. I thought Miami would have come out of the East last year had their two stars been healthy in that series, but both Shaq and Dwayne Wade (sorry, Dwayne, you’re not a ‘first name’ player yet) were well less than 100% in the final few games of that series.
Miami entered the ’05-’06 campaign as co-favorites with Detroit to come out of the East. They did what they needed to do to earn a top seed and a relatively weak first round opponent in Chicago. Yet, as the Heat prepare for the second round playoffs, major questions persist about this team’s ability to make noise in the postseason. I, for one, am a Heat doubter, not a Heat supporter.
Miami's roster includes five current or former All-Stars, four former Olympians and four possible Hall of Famers (Payton and Shaq are locks, Mourning has a shot and Wade has certainly showed that potential early in his career, although it’s probably too early to list him in that category). Pat Riley is a Hall of Fame coach.
But Miami has not played well down the stretch. Defense was Miami's trademark during Riley's previous tenure as their coach. That's no longer the case. Two time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Alonzo Mourning: “Our defense has been our biggest setback. It has kept us from getting to that next level. We're so offensive-minded (averaging more than 100 ppg. for the season) and things come to us so easy offensively, we have a tendency at times to forget about ... what championship teams have done in the past. They've been successful defensive teams.”
The Heat have had extreme difficulty containing perimeter scorers. New Jersey’s Vince Carter averaged 38.5 points in four games against them. Washington’s Gilbert Arenas averaged 32.3. Cleveland's LeBron James averaged 41.0. Last year, the Heat relied on Eddie Jones, a three time NBA all-defense selection, to defend opponents' top perimeter scorers. Riley traded Jones to Memphis in the off-season, picking up James Posey to fill that role. But Posey has been battling injuries all season, unable to live up to those expectations. The Bulls shot better than 40% from three point land in their series against Miami.
Pat Riley: “We talked about three things that are really a must for us. I failed to mention, as assistant coach Ron Rothstein warned me, about our containment defense, our perimeter defense. I didn't want to embarrass them by talking in the media about the fact that we can't guard anybody. So I'm not.”
Miami finished the regular season 14th in points allowed (96.2 a game), 15th in assists-to-turnovers and 22nd in steals. Those numbers compare poorly with that of the other Eastern Conference contenders, particularly New Jersey and Detroit (their likely opponent should the Heat make the Eastern Conference Finals once again).
Shaq is having the poorest statistical season of his career, averaging 20.0 points and 9.2 rebounds, and is second in the league in personal fouls per game (3.9). ESPN analyst Steve Jones: “The calls he used to get he's not getting. The referees have adjusted their officiating to make it a little bit more difficult for Shaq to have the advantage he used to have. He hasn't adjusted enough. He used to be able to back that diesel into people, lay 'em on the floor, lay it in and run to the other end.”
TNT analyst Steve Kerr: “He used to go around guys. Now he's trying to go through guys more. (Against) defenders who are willing to take the punishment, like New Jersey’s Jason Collins, that's where you see where Shaq has lost some of his side-to-side mobility.”
The Heat have a 2-12 SU record against the other five division leaders: Detroit, New Jersey, San Antonio, Denver and Phoenix. Those two wins came by a grand total of three points. Miami had a disputed one point win over the Nets on November 7th, with the Heat getting a crucial call on one end and non-call on the other in the closing seconds. And they had a two point win against the Pistons on February 12th, rallying late behind 17 consecutive fourth quarter points from Wade. Neither of those victories were particularly convincing, to put it mildly.
Miami has been able to beat up on the weak, but they’ve been outclassed by the strong all year long. They aren’t healthy, with ‘Zo, Jason Williams and Posey all ailing. They don’t have a championship caliber defense. Expecting Pat Riley to get this aging group of veterans back into the NBA Finals is not something I’m willing to do.
On that note I think this series goes seven and will be one of the best series thus far this year.
Tonight I am staying off the side and going over the total. The second round will loosen up these two teams and fouls will be called all over the place SHAQ has started driving the lane and Wade always does on the opposite side Vince hits the lane..
OVER 190
JT
Sneaks
Monday Miami / NJ 
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