Saturday NBA Selection & Analysis

[ProInfoSports]

Saturday NBA Selection & Analysis

Opinion Selection

New Jersey -1 over INDIANA (BUY the half-point if necessary)

Thanks to the play of the Pacers Jermaine O'Neal, #6 seed Indiana has a 3-1 lead in their Playoff series with the #3 seed Nets. O'Neal was fined $15,000 by the NBA for being critical of the officiating in Games 1 and 2. He evidently used the bill as motivation, tying his playoff career-high with 37 points and grabbing 15 rebounds in Indiana's 107-95 victory. He went an amazing 12-for-15 from the field and 13-for-14 from the free-throw line.

New Jersey led by four at halftime, but fell apart in the third quarter, making just 3 of 18 field-goal attempts. The Nets shot just 24 percent in the second half and Vince Carter went ice cube cold, missing all 10 of his shots after the break. After losing Game 1, the Nets responded with a victory in Game 2, something they'll need to do again on Saturday.

Apparently, this is going to be the back-and-forth series we projected before it began. Now, it's New Jersey's turn to make some adjustments and even things up. While the Nets should play with much more determination in this contest, being behind once again, Indiana has historically been a Playoff team that simply can't handle success. With a series lead at home, they are a poor 2-9-1 ATS. Also at home, when they have a series lead and already a loss in the series, they are an ugly 0-4 SU & ATS, losing outright by an average of 17 points a game! They have failed to cover the spread by nearly 19 points a game on average in those contests! On any court with a 2-1 series lead, the Pacers have been flat as a pancake, going 0-5 SU & ATS since at least 1999, losing SU & ATS by more than 14 points a game on average! Meanwhile, New Jersey is 2-0 ATS vs. conference foes when trailing in a Playoff series 2-1.

It may seem odd that Indiana would be a slight home underdog after a home win as a slight favorite. Perhaps the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something here, as they, too, are looking for the Nets to rebound here, literally and figuratively. Indeed, a database search reveals that NBA Playoff home underdogs with a TOTAL over 174 points and less than 2 days rest off a home SU win are 0-8 SU & ATS! It should be a war, but we expect the more motivated team playing from behind to come out on top in this series once again.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NEW JERSEY 94 INDIANA 89