| Starter Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 181
|  Cavs at Milwaukee
Tonight at 8p.m. EST the Milwaukee Bucks will play host to the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Milwaukee is one game behind the Cavs in the tough Central Division.
The Cavs are coming into this game on 3 days of rest, after defeating the Detroit Pistons 97-84 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, and are playing only their 3rd game in the past 9 days. My opinion is that too much time between games can cause a team to become sluggish and despondent. On the other hand, after a tough bunch of games a team can use the time to replenish itself. Much of this depends on the coaching, and the quality and time intervals of the practices they schedule in the absence of real games. Cleveland, this season, has performed well under this 3 day scenario, in defeating the Pistons in their last outing as 2' pt dogs, and on Nov 30th giving the LA Clippers a 112-105 defeat, not covering an 8' pt line......both games on 3 days rest.
Cleveland has a mediocre 5-7 record when on the road, and are allowing the host team 103.9 pts/game. That, in itself, has been the problem this year. Poor road defense, and rarely covering an inflated spread, due to the public's "love affair" with LeBron James. When they should be 3-4' point dogs, they end up 1 + chalk. James does score well at home and on the road, but does not often get the support he needs from the rest of the squad when on the enemy's turf. All said, the Cavs should be coming into this game on an emotional high after soundly beating the Pistons......after all, the road to the Championship goes right through Detroit, doesn't it?
Milwaukee turned in a fine performance in defeating the Chicago Bulls on the road 93-92 in their last outing, and enter this game on 1 day of rest playing the third game in 6 days. Down by 11 in the third quarter of that game, the Bucks quickly got back into it by going on a 22-6 run that put them up by 5. Milwaukee has not lost a home game to the Cavs in the last seven meetings at the Bradley Center, and have beaten the Cavs 13 of the last 15 at that facility.
The last time these two teams battled was 25 days ago on Dec 10 in Wisconsin. In that game Milwaukee was a 1 point favorite, and the total was set at 202'. Milwaukee prevailed 111-106. Cleveland was up by 3 at the half, and led by as many as 16 in those first two periods, but the Cavs were outscored 59-51 in the final 2 stanzas. During those final 2 periods the Bucks went on 7-0 and 10-2 runs to secure the win. Milwaukee was only up by 2 pts with 28 ticks left on the clock, and realistically the game could have gone either way. In that game LeBron James recorded a career high 52 points and had 7 RBs. Ilgauskas had 20 (2 RBs-5 BS), Larry Hughes put in 9 (4 RBs), Drew Gooden had 7 (2 RBs), D. Marshall put in 5 pts (7 RBs) and Eric Snow added 6 points. Cavs were 6 of 18 from 3 pt range (James had 5 of those), they shot 54.4% on 37 of 68 from the field and dropped in 26 of 32 from the charity line.
Even with James's 52 they could not win, and will have to spread it out some to win tonight.
Milwaukee had two players with career high points in that game....Bogut came through with 21 (6RBs) and T.J. Ford put in 24 (4 RBs). Other scoring was done by B. Simmons 16 (6 RBs), J. Magloire had 8 (15 RBs), M. Redd 23 (1 RB), T. Kukoc had 5 (2 RBs) and M. Williams had 14 off the bench. The Bucs made 38 of 83 from the field or 45.8%. 11 out of 24 - 3 pointers went in (Ford had 5). They made 24 of 30 free throws, along with 9 steals and 2 BS with 13 turnovers.
The primary difference between that game and tonight's encounter will be the absence of T.J. Ford in the Milwaukee lineup. He was just starting to come out of the woodwork, and began to shine a little, when he suffered a strained foot. Williams will be his primary replacement, and this game could well hinge on the effort he puts forth. Michael Redd can not carry the entire team, just as LeBron can not carry the load for the Cavs. He can carry the mail, but not the entire load. Going into the game the Cavs had lost 4 of their previous 5 games, while Milwaukee had won 5 of their last 6. Tonight the Cavs enter having soundly defeated 7 of their last 8 opponents by a total of 69 points (almost 10 pts/game). The Bucks have also done well in winning 5 of their last 6, but only by a total of 19 points(3.8 pts/game). To me that is very important, and the Cavs get the edge. Can you tell, I'm from Cleveland?
In the two games before the one just mentioned, on April 9th Cleveland won at home 98-81 and covered as 6' point favorites with an over under of 196. On March 16th Milwaukee won at home 96-88, covering easily as 2' pt chalk, again with an over under of 196. Tonights line, last I looked was Cleveland -2 and a point total of 204. The odds makers must feel that the added rest will produce more points. I do not share that opinion.
I will not try to sway or tout you to play anything. You're all big boys, and I'm sure that you were all taught to read. But my money is on the Cavs. I realize that it goes against the norm and previous trends. I just can't see LeBron going crazy on the buckets again, and that will be good for the Cavs, and they can spread it around a little. Furthermore, I can't see Michael Redd carrying the entire load for the Bucks, who may not have the career high games they had last time.
Good luck, whatever you do. And remember one thing. "Everybody plays the fool sometimes........there's no exception to the rule." |
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