[Raji]

Preseason betting in any sport can be a tricky endeavor, but it can be an even bigger challenge in the NBA. In the NFL, we get good information from coaches throughout the week on player rotations, quarterback substitutions and sometimes even a look into the game plan.

In the NBA we don’t get this kind of information - although a coach may dish who will be getting the most and/or least playing time in certain games. Even with this info foul trouble, injuries and general fatigue can all hinder your research.

Looking at game-by-game matchups may take too long since this information is not readily available. Instead glancing at the league across the board may be the way to go.

Do certain teams try to win their preseason games? Are certain teams more apt to worry about looking at roster spots?

These questions need to be answered before blindly betting any teams. The age of a roster can help out greatly as an older team is going to play a lot of young players to avoid injuries and evade too much work early on.

The preseason betting line, like the NFL, will favor the home team the majority of the time so we can usually find some great value in the underdogs. So far this preseason, underdogs are hitting at a 66.7 percent clip, going 14-7 ATS. You will not find many big underdogs in the preseason since linesmakers do not know how teams are going to play these games out. Looking at underdogs of more than six points is usually a lucrative strategy. NBA teams dogged by at least six points are 6-2 ATS this preseason.

Another thing bettors should monitor during the exhibition calendar is totals. Linesmakers are normally a little bit slower to catch on to the proper number for a given preseason game. The under has been a big hit early on, but now may be the time to start betting the overs since totals will be adjusted and the value will flip to the other way.

Low scoring games tend to occur early on as players simply are not in shooting form and team offenses are still in the beginning stages of work. Start to look at over plays after a club’s third exhibition match.

Games are averaging 184.3 points per game, proving the point that these early games are low scoring. We should see a sharp increase once teams have had a couple games played. It’s important to note that scoring has gone up in the preseason in each of the last four years.

In 2004, the average preseason score was 182.7 ppg. That has risen each year to 187.4 in 2005, 195.4 in 2006 and 196.0 in 2007. The pattern may break this year but the totals should still rise from the current average as the preseason progresses.


Raji