Hi Guys, here my first pick here:
Phoenix Mercury @ Houston Comets
One of the tasks of handicapping is to find the value in the lines offered by the oddmakers, wait for the movement of the public money and if the movement is opposite to the line we think it has value, that's great as we have an even higher opportunity. Obviously that we still need to wait for the game to be played, but that's not part of my competence. I think this game will be one of these cases. The team of Phoenix comes to Houston to play the Comets in a really important game for both teams, as both are 11-12 right now and they are trying to reach the playoffs.
These two teams have faced each other at Phoenix, with the Mercury winning, which means if they win again, they will get the upperhand over Houston, in a case of a tie in the record of these two teams at the end of the regular season. The totals line is currently at 177,5 points having started at 176, but a movement took it higher. It's important to say that this movement was originated by two factors: the team of Phoenix has been on-fire offensively in their last matches. They come from 4 overs in a row, where they scoring average is 98.3 ppg and the whole game with an unbelievable 192.7 ppg! Besides that these two teams have faced each other earlier this month and the game ended with a result of 99-94 (193 points).
These are the main motives why the line has went to 177,5 points, however consistence is something there isn't in this league and teams sooner or later start missing, as today's game won't be played in the same way as the previous match between these two teams was played. Phoenix has two faces this season, one on home games and the other one on away games. At home the team is 8-3 Over, but on the road they are 8-4 Under! This fact shows how the team can't play on the road at the high pace they play at home. This is more evident after a win, as they are 7-3 Under in the following game.
Houston comes from a very important win over the Sparks, where a very powerful defense was capable of stop Parker, allowing the Sparks to score just 65 points in the regular time. In this game, Houston is a small favorite and they are 4-0 Under in this type of conditions this season. In the game played at Phoenix, it's important to say that the game ended 99-94, with Houston shooting 52.8% FG and 8-16 3pts and still losing the game. This was clearly a warning sign for the Comets that if they play again today at a very high pace, they will most likely losing again against the Comets. Houston is 11-3 Under in home games revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons and Phoenix confirms the inconsistence of the WNBA teams, as they are 8-2 Under in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.
I expect this game to have a lot of points, but not enough to pass the 177,5 mark. In my predictions I expect a winning team to score 85-90 points, while the losing team staying in the low 80's. Take the under in here.
Play: Under 177,5 Points
Good Luck
7/22 Wnba 
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