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Old 05-14-2008, 08:52 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Something strange happened to these Boston Celtics between the conclusion of their brilliant regular season and the start of their mediocre playoff performance.

Where is the team that went 31-10 straight up and 27-13 against the spread on the road this season?

Suddenly, they can’t buy a road win.

That situation has the mainstream media in a tizzy, but for bettors, it’s not the issue right now as the series heads back to Boston for Game 5.

Bettors are more concerned that the Celtics are 1-3 ATS in their current series with the Cleveland Cavaliers, adding to a head-to-head season series that now equals 6-2 ATS in favor of the Cavs.

Even more disconcerting for Boston bettors is the fact that they’re not really doing a bad job defensively against Cleveland. They’ve successfully kept LeBron James from taking over offensively for most of the series – which is no small feat and is usually more than enough to ensure victory against a team which is decidedly LeBron-centric.

“Up until Game 4 they did an excellent job of slowing down Lebron James and forcing his teammates to make their shots,” says Covers Expert David Chan. “More often than not that game plan is going to work against the Cavs.”

But maybe everybody’s looking at the wrong guy. While we’re all focusing on LeBron and wondering what happened to his game, maybe we should be examining Kevin Garnett instead.

Garnett was the driving force behind this team all year, but now he’s disappeared. He managed only two points in the second half of Game 4 and was – to everyone’s astonishment – outplayed and overwhelmed by Anderson Varejao of all people. The most telling moment of the game came when James planted a vicious dunk directly in the Big Ticket’s grille.

After being held down for the entire series, that's the kind of play that could rouse LeBron out of the uncharacteristic slump he's been suffering through. Not good news for the Celtics.

And considering Boston’s Big Three were all held to 15 points or fewer on Monday, the Cavaliers’ defense probably deserves more credit than its getting. Mike Brown used his bench effectively as Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Varejao all did an excellent job sticking to the Celtics scorers and not allowing open looks at the basket.

Not surprisingly, all three of the Cavs’ ATS wins also played under the total. Parlay, perhaps?

But in spite of their struggles, Chan still believes the Celtics will be energized by their return to The Garden.

“As much as I would like to believe the Celtics are in trouble in Game 5, because I have the Cavs to win the series in six or seven and would love to hedge,” Chan concedes, “I think they'll take care of business. We'll likely be looking at another 8-9 point spread, which in my opinion, makes the game extremely difficult to bet.”

Either way, Game 5 in Boston poses an interesting proposition to bettors as the Celtics are pegged once again as heavy 8 1/2-point favorites. That hasn't been a problem in any previous games, but this one is a little more unsettling.

"We're looking at another 8-9 point spread," Chan says, "which in my opinion, makes the game extremely difficult to bet.

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Old 05-14-2008, 08:53 AM   #2 (permalink)
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The phrase, “The series doesn’t start until the home team loses,” is uttered often this time of the year. With the NBA and NHL Playoffs in full swing and 7-game series often coming down to what team can defend its home court, that expression certainly has its validity. Never more so than in the second round of the NBA’s postseason, where the home teams have dominated thus far.

The home team has combined to go 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in the second round so far. The lone outright win came in Game 4 of the Detroit-Orlando series, where the Pistons stole a 1-point win from the Magic on a questionable non-call in the final seconds. Otherwise, the home teams could be looking at a perfect 16-0 mark right now.

The biggest issue holding the visitors back is the most basic of deciding factors. They simply can’t put the ball in the basket. Scoring at home hasn’t been the issue for the remaining squads. Scoring away from home has been a whole other story, though, at least in the second round.

All eight remaining teams have averaged fewer points on the road than at home and, in most cases, there is a significant difference. The Celtics, who owned the league’s best road mark during the regular season but have yet to win away from home during the postseason, own the smallest scoring differential but that’s only because they can’t really score at home either. Boston is averaging 82.5 points per game at home and just 80.5 points per game on the road.

Boston’s second-round foe Cleveland has a far greater differential. The Cavs averaged 98 points per game in winning Games 3 and 4 at home after averaging just 72.5 points per game in Boston, a difference of 25.5 points per game.

The other Eastern Conference semifinal, between Detroit and Orlando, is following the lead of Boston-Cleveland. Detroit is averaging 95.5 points per game at home but just 88 points per game in Orlando. In fairness, that difference can be chalked up to Chauncey Billups playing less than four minutes in Orlando. The Magic have no such excuse, averaging 100 points per game at home and a mere 82.5 points per game in Detroit.

The Western Conference, as most would expect, as has seen higher overall scoring outputs but has suffered from the same traveling affliction as the East. The Lakers are averaging 114.5 points per game in the Staples Center but just 103.5 points per game in regulation in Utah’s EnergySolutions Arena. The Jazz are putting up similar numbers with 113.5 points per game at home and 104 per game on the road.

The second-seeded Hornets and third-seeded Spurs have both seen considerable differences in point production. New Orleans averaged 101.5 points per game at home in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead but couldn’t get the lid off the basket on the road, averaging just 89.5 points per game.

San Antonio, one would think, shouldn’t suffer this same problem based on its postseason experience. But not even the playoff-proven Spurs can escape this epidemic. They have averaged 105 points per game at home but just 83 points per game in New Orleans, a difference of 22 points per game and the second-biggest margin of the second round.

Low-scoring efforts on the road haven’t really affected the totals much, though. The under is just 8-7-1 as the high scores from the home teams have balanced out the low scores of the visiting teams. These vast scoring differentials have led to some massive blowouts in the second round. The average margin of victory for the home teams is a robust 13.9 points per game with 11 of the 15 wins coming by double digits.

Will these trends continue throughout the remainder of the second round and into the conference finals? You’ll just have to stay tuned.

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Old 05-14-2008, 08:53 AM   #3 (permalink)
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The Utah Jazz are almost right where they want to be.

The only thing that could top tying the Western Conference semifinals against the Lakers would be if Game 5 was in Utah instead of Los Angeles. The home team has won all four games of the series and the Jazz would need to end that trend in order to advance.

''I think the pressure is on us a little bit. We've got to go out there and prove we can win there,'' point guard Deron Williams said at practice Monday. ''I think we have the confidence now to do that. We just have to come out and have a good start to the ballgame and hopefully that carries over for the rest of the game.''

Whoever wins Game 5 on Wednesday will be one victory away from clinching when the series returns to Utah on Friday. Oddsmakers have the Lakers favored to be that team at -8 1/2 points. The total is set at 213 1/2.

The Jazz evened the series 2-2 on Sunday with a 123-115 overtime win at home. The Jazz needed two straight victories in Utah after falling behind the Lakers 2-0 when the series opened in Los Angeles.

''We have a good chance. We made the series 2-2 and kind of started over,'' forward Andrei Kirilenko said.

The Jazz feel they have some momentum now after giving the Lakers their first consecutive losses since late March, but one thing Utah is not counting on is Kobe Bryant's back bothering him the way it did Sunday.

Bryant said he had a back spasm early in the first quarter Sunday and was in pain the rest of the game. The Jazz said Monday they didn't notice much of a difference - Bryant still had 33 points and 10 assists - and expected the NBA's MVP to be at full strength in Game 5.

If the Lakers win on Wednesday, the remaining possibilities for the Jazz look pretty bleak.

Los Angeles would host Game 7 if the series goes that far. The Jazz would much rather win in on Wednesday and have a chance to clinch at home than lose Game 5 and have to win again in Utah to stay alive and force a final game.

A year ago, Utah won Game 7 at Houston in the first round, but being the road team when it's winner-take-all is not a good position to be in. The Jazz have played well on the road at times this season, just not against the Lakers.

The Lakers swept both regular season games against Utah in Los Angeles and opened the playoff series with two more home wins. The Jazz fell way behind in the first half of both games and were never able to recover.

''We still feel like in L.A. the first two games, we played three good quarters. We just didn't play four,'' forward Carlos Boozer said.

The Jazz have been an enigma all season, going 37-4 in the regular season, yet struggling on the road. They opened the playoffs with two wins at Houston in the first round and haven't won away from home since.

Utah shot 41 percent in the two games in Los Angeles, then 51 percent at home.

The Jazz will need to find a way to beat the Lakers in the Staples Center for the first time since January 2006 if they are going to win the series.

''Why not? We've done it in the past. We can do it,'' Kirilenko said.

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Old 05-14-2008, 08:54 AM   #4 (permalink)
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EL SEGUNDO, Calif. (AP) -Kobe Bryant met the media Monday with a new companion - an electronic stimulation device hooked up to his sore lower back.

Plans call for the two to spend a lot of time together for the next couple of days, or longer.

The Los Angeles Lakers' star tweaked his back in the opening minutes of Sunday's 123-115 overtime loss at Utah that tied the Western Conference semifinals 2-2.

''It's pretty sore right now,'' Bryant said Monday. ''It's tight. It's to be expected the next day, I guess. I don't know how I made it through the game, to be honest with you.''

Bryant said he was receiving treatment around the clock.

''Secret stuff,'' he replied with a smile when asked to be specific about the treatment.

Regarding the electronic stimulating device, Bryant said he had slept with it on Sunday night.

''It cuts down the pain,'' he said. ''How, I don't know.''

The teams play Game 5 in the best-of-seven series Wednesday night at Staples Center, where the Lakers are 16-3 against the Jazz since the arena opened before the 1999-2000 season. L.A. is set as an early 8 1/2-point favorite.

Bryant said he was just glad Game 5 wasn't being played Tuesday.

''It was give me another day to recuperate,'' he said. ''I'll be ready to play. I can't imagine it being any worse than it was last night.''

Bryant conducted his post-game news conference standing up because of the discomfort in his back.

''I had to keep my poise to keep from yelling all kind of curse words,'' he said.

Bryant shot just 13-for-33 including 1-for-7 in overtime while scoring 33 points.

''I just couldn't elevate, get enough space to knock down a jump shot,'' he said. ''When you have a back injury, you try not to re-injure it. I rarely hurt my back, I remember one time when I was 21.''

When asked if perhaps he shouldn't have taken so many shots in overtime, what with the sore back, Bryant replied: ''I got some pretty good looks, they didn't fall for me.''

Pau Gasol, for one, had no problem with Bryant's aggressiveness in the overtime period.

''He's so competitive, he demands the ball no matter what he's feeling,'' Gasol said. ''He never hides. I respect the fact that he was playing. It's hard to play with back problems. He played through it. We all have our injuries and things that bother us. We're all going to have to tough it out, man up and win.''

Derek Fisher acknowledged the Lakers got away from what had been successful late in the fourth quarter, when they rallied from a 12-point deficit to force overtime.

''He did a great job of creating opportunities for other people down the stretch,'' Fisher said. ''That's what we got away from in overtime.''

Several members of the Jazz said they weren't aware Bryant was hurting until after the game, and expect him to be at full strength in Game 5.

''If he puts on his uniform and plays, don't worry about him being hurt,'' Utah coach Jerry Sloan said Monday. ''You'd better be ready to play the guy because he's a great player and he's got the ability to bury you in a lot of different ways. That's what (great players) can do.''

Utah's Carlos Boozer said he thought Bryant seemed OK when he had the possession of the ball.

''Kobe's going to play,'' Boozer said. ''When he has the ball in his hands, he's going to be the same guy he's been. He has the same mentality. That's the biggest thing about Kobe Bryant. He has the same mind-set no matter what's ailing his body.

''I'm not worry about it,'' Boozer told reporters in Salt Lake City. ''You guys are. We're going to prepare for him like he's 100 percent.''

Said Deron Williams: ''I think Kobe's going to be Kobe when it comes Wednesday. I'm not going to expect anything else.''

Lakers coach Phil Jackson said he wasn't concerned about Bryant.

''Yes and yes,'' the coach replied when asked if he expected Bryant to play and be efficient in Game 5. ''I have nothing to do with his recovery. I've got to prepare this team to play.''

When asked what he was thinking, Jackson replied: ''How we're going to remedy what happened in the last two games.''

The Jazz had an NBA-best 37-4 record at home during the regular season, but the Lakers rallied in both games before falling short.

''We've got a couple players that have to contribute,'' Jackson said. ''They have to work on their game and get their confidence back.''

Jackson wouldn't be more specific, but he could have been referring to starting forward Vladimir Radmanovic, who 4-for-13 for a total of 10 points in the two games in Utah, and backup guard Jordan Farmar, who went 0-for-8 in being blanked.

Meanwhile, Black said general manager Mitch Kupchak spoke Monday with NBA disciplinarian Stu Jackson about Lakers reserve Ronny Turiaf, who was ejected early in the second quarter for committing a flagrant foul against Utah's Ronnie Price.

''We'll be shocked if there's a suspension,'' Black said.

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Old 05-14-2008, 05:33 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I think that the boston celtics are in serious trouble. We can all agree that Lebron james has shut down paul pierce, ray allen is not shooting the ball well at all. KG and arguably James Posey are their only consistent threats offensively. The series is tied 2-2 and Lebron James is still missing shots he normally makes. I will not be shocked at all to see the Cavs moving on. The key for me is Ray Allen finding his stroke. Without that they are in trouble. Lebron will find ways to score when he needs to and the cavs will take this series.
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Old 05-14-2008, 06:20 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I agree Dr. Picker but the key to me is Rondo. The Cavs give him open shots all night and he can't knock them down.


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Old 05-15-2008, 10:33 AM   #7 (permalink)
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you are right, if you can force Rondo to beat you then you are in a good position against the celtics
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