NBA in the West = Over

[Raji]

here’s a lot to like about the Western Conference. But if you’re into tough defense, you should look somewhere else.

Among playoff teams like Los Angeles, Denver, Phoenix, New Orleans and Dallas, there are plenty of highlight jams, lobs, lay-ins, fade-aways and floaters to go around. Any semblance of defensive sensibility is less common than a plate of grits on the West Coast.

And that style of play isn’t just creating exciting games in the Western playoffs, it’s also creating an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on a noteworthy trend.

Prior to Thursday's games, the over/under in Western Conference postseason play is 5-3. Take away the slow-paced temp of the Houston-Utah series and that number is a nearly perfect 5-1 to the over. Two of those series' (New Orleans-Dallas and San Antonio-Phoenix) have played over every game.

But is this a trend you should risk your money on? Covers Expert Bryan Leonard doesn’t necessarily think so.

“The Western Conference is known as a more open court fast-breaking conference. It's hard for some of these teams like Denver to change their stripes to adjust to the playoffs, which is one reason why Phoenix made the trade for Shaq.

“But it's too early to tell if the linesmakers have missed the boat based on such a small sample size. We will see if the trend continues but I wouldn't read too much into it.”

That may be true, but there is one series that over bettors should keep a close eye on.

The New Orleans-Dallas series played over in both the first two games and in spite of the fact that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league, this is one series which could continue to be played at a high-scoring pace.

Covers Expert Ted Sevransky says the betting marketplace “has not priced the totals correctly” in these matchups.

“The biggest issue here, in my opinion,” says Sevransky, “is the difficulty that Dallas has had containing Chris Paul, both in half-court sets and in transition. Each of the four meetings since the Mavs acquired Jason Kidd has been totaled at 192. All four games have gone over the total.

“Kidd can't stay in front of Paul in half-court sets, giving the Hornets plenty of easy buckets from Paul's 'drive and dish' chances in the paint.”

Dallas Morning News columnist Randy Galloway made a similar assessment in an article published on Wednesday. He took the analysis further and wrote that the Mavs have “no starting-five matchup advantage thus far. (The Mavs are) losing at every position on the floor.”

Dalls certainly seems to be at a loss about how to stop the New Orleans scoring machine and because of that, bettors can almost taste another over. The Game 3 total has already been bumped up three points beyond the Game 2 number and it could get even higher before Friday’s tip-off. However, Sevransky warns that certain factors could send scoring in the opposite direction in Dallas.

“The Hornets shot 61 percent from the floor in Game 2, hitting from all over the court. Meanwhile, the Mavs have made 63 free throws in the first two games, an extraordinarily high number, getting the benefit of the doubt on numerous whistles and taking advantage of those opportunities for scoring without the clock moving.

“A crew of officials who will let these teams bang a little bit could send this series in the completely opposite direction, totals wise, in the next few games.”

The total for Game 3 of the New Orleans-Dallas series is currently set at 195 ½ and hasn't moved since it opened Wednesday afternoon. The Mavericks are listed as 5-point favorites in that series.

Raji